Special Weather Statement, NWS Glasgow, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
356 AM MDT FRI AUG 5 2011

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD SHOWING A FAIRLY ACTIVE
AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. SUMMER SEASON UPPER HIGH
CONTINUES TO HOLD SWAY OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER U.S. STATES AS NEAR
ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
STATES. VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND IN FACT IS ALREADY AFFECTING NORTHEAST MONTANA AS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE MAIN
FORCING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN FAR NORTH CENTRAL
ZONES.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL OBVIOUSLY BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. EVEN WITH A HEAVY CLOUD COVER AND NO DAYTIME
HEATING...STORMS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO TAP INTO THE INCREASING
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY TO POP OF SOME THUNDERSTORM DURING THE
VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY. EXPECT THE SOMEWHAT SCATTERED
NATURE OF THESE STORMS TO EVENTUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS
THE DAY UNFOLDS.

ANALYSIS OF THE PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMATOLOGY AND TODAYS EXPECTED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE MORE LIKELY TODAY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE GLASGOW AREA. THEREFORE HAVE TRIMMED OFF THE WESTERN
ZONES OF THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUES FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO REPRESENT THE
AREA UNDER THE GREATEST THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING
TODAY.

SEVERAL SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE ON THE INCREASE ALREADY THIS
MORNING AND THE DEVELOPING STORMS SEEM TO BE TAKING FULL ADVANTAGE
OF THE SITUATION. STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL TRAVERSE THE
CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE EAST BETWEEN 12Z TODAY AND 06Z
LATE TONIGHT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE RIGHT BEHIND IT. SHORT TERM
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE COMING INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER FOCUS BUT STILL
SHOWING SOME MAJOR DISCONTINUITY...ESPECIALLY REGARDING QPF. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT ALMOST 3 TIMES THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THAN
THE NAM. WOULD EXPECT THE ENTIRE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA TO BE
UNDER SOME KIND OF A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
EVEN SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETERS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES FOR OUR EAST CENTRAL ZONES BETWEEN 20Z AND 03Z.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...I DECREASED FORECAST POPS QUITE A BIT AS
SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWED GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SUBSIDENCE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURN TO NORTHEAST MONTANA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER MANITOBA EXTENDING A FRONT
THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BRING SOME COOLER CANADIAN
AIR DOWN INTO MONTANA. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
HAVE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES WITH ONLY VERY SLIGHT CHANCES DAILY
OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA.

THE GFS AND EC ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY GOOD FOR THE FORECAST. VERY FEW LOCATIONS
WILL RECEIVE PRECIPITATION WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION... HOWEVER THE
PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION POPPING UP ACROSS THE REGION DAILY IS
FAIRLY HIGH.                    PROTON

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY... THEN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION WILL BRING FLIGHT CATEGORIES DOWN TO MVFR/IFR WITH
STORMS THAT PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN FALL. LOOK FOR STRONG ERRATIC WINDS
WITHIN THE VICINITY OF ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. THE
CONVECTION WILL END WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL BRING BACK VFR CONDITIONS AREA WIDE.
PROTON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...SHERIDAN...WESTERN
ROOSEVELT...MCCONE...RICHLAND...DAWSON...PRAIRIE...WIBAUX...
NORTHERN VALLEY...EASTERN ROOSEVELT.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
318 AM MDT FRI AUG 5 2011

MTZ018-061-051015-
DANIELS-VALLEY-
318 AM MDT FRI AUG 5 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GLASGOW HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHERN VALLEY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...
  NORTHWESTERN DANIELS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...

UNTIL 415 AM MDT/515 AM CDT/.

AT 415 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES WEST OF PORT OF OPHEIM...MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
   PORT OF OPHEIM AND  OPHEIM...
   RICHLAND...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4900 10554 4875 10563 4886 10668 4901 10665
      4901 10558
TIME...MOT...LOC 0918Z 282DEG 30KT 4901 10652

PROTON
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
320 AM MDT FRI AUG 5 2011

MTZ023-051015-
MCCONE-
320 AM MDT FRI AUG 5 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GLASGOW HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL MCCONE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...

UNTIL 415 AM MDT.

AT 315 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTH OF BROCKWAY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
   CIRCLE...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4740 10592 4775 10578 4757 10536 4755 10536
      4732 10571
TIME...MOT...LOC 0920Z 208DEG 16KT 4740 10578

MICKELSON
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
326 AM MDT FRI AUG 5 2011

MTZ027-051000-
WIBAUX-
326 AM MDT FRI AUG 5 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GLASGOW HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN WIBAUX COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...

UNTIL 400 AM MDT.

AT 324 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES EAST OF INTAKE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
  RURAL AREAS OF NORTHERN WIBAUX COUNTY...
  RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN WIBAUX COUNTY...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4720 10433 4724 10434 4727 10439 4734 10439
      4736 10424 4736 10413 4737 10412 4738 10403
      4715 10404
TIME...MOT...LOC 0925Z 270DEG 20KT 4727 10431

MICKELSON
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
347 AM MDT FRI AUG 5 2011

MTZ025-051045-
DAWSON-
347 AM MDT FRI AUG 5 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GLASGOW HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHERN DAWSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...

UNTIL 445 AM MDT.

AT 345 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BLOOMFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
   BLOOMFIELD...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4762 10480 4743 10458 4735 10499 4745 10509
TIME...MOT...LOC 0947Z 239DEG 13KT 4743 10499

MICKELSON
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
421 AM MDT FRI AUG 5 2011

MTZ023>025-051115-
DAWSON-MCCONE-RICHLAND-
421 AM MDT FRI AUG 5 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GLASGOW HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  RICHLAND COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...
  EASTERN MCCONE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...
  NORTHERN DAWSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...

UNTIL 515 AM MDT.

AT 418 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES WEST OF
RICHEY TO 13 MILES EAST OF SAVAGE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
   RICHEY...
   LAMBERT...
   SIDNEY...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4740 10413 4735 10413 4759 10549 4801 10522
      4780 10403 4740 10404
TIME...MOT...LOC 1021Z 204DEG 15KT 4763 10532 4740 10406

MICKELSON
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW