Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Glasgow, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
225 PM MDT THU JUN 2 2011

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
STILL EXPECTING A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK THIS
AFTERNOON. GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN ZONES...WITH A LINE
OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG IT...AS IT ERODES THE CAP
IN PLACE AROUND 700MB.  THIS LINE WILL PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA...AND SHOULD BE INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY AROUND 00Z.
BEHIND THE FRONT STILL EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP.
THUS ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 3PM TODAY THROUGH 9 PM
FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE REALLY PICK UP AS A 50KT PLUS LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO DECREASE
SOME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THANKS TO STABLE CONDITIONS IN THE LOW
LEVELS. HOWEVER WINDS WILL QUICKLY PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY
MORNING AS LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY RETURNS...THUS THE EXTENDED TIMING ON
THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY. THE HIGH WIND POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO
NECESSITATE A CLOSE WATCH FOR A POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHT AS WIND SPEEDS
APPROACH OR EXCEED 50KTS AT 850MB TONIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL BE WINDY AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ALLOWS
THE NOW EXITING LOW LEVEL JET TO MIX DOWN. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE COOLER THANKS TO COLD AIR ADVECTION OUT OF CANADA.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION...SERVING TO LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS OUT. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS CONTINUES TO BE THE FAR NORTH WHERE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN...AS WELL AS TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GILCHRIST

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTION NOSING NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS PROVIDING CALM AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE NEW WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW WILL INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA AS SOME SUBTLE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL INTRODUCE SOME INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND THEN LOOK TO THIN OUT THROUGH
THURSDAY NEXT WEEK AS THAT MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE CWA. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOW A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE
HUDSON BAY AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WHICH IS
BEING PULLED EASTWARD BY THE LARGE UPPER LOW. COLD FRONT IS FAIRLY
WEAK AND SHOULD STAY PUT UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN IT WILL BE
PUSHED TO THE NORTH BY A BUILDING THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL
MONTANA. SUNDAY AND MONDAY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR THE FIRST
TIME THIS YEAR ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA.

TUESDAY AND ONWARD...THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS THE NEXT UPPER LOW INTO
MONTANA SLIGHTLY FASTER THEN THE 00Z GFS...HOWEVER MUCH BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT THEN ON PREVIOUS SHIFTS AT LEAST FOR THE PERIOD
BETWEEN TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE CHANGED SLIGHTLY AND NOW
HAVE THE UPPER LOW MAKING IT A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST AS IT
MOVE UP FROM THE GREAT BASIN THEN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. SO IT LOOKS
LIKE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WE WILL HAVE
CONTINUED CHANCES OF WIDE SPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS SYSTEM SPINS OVER EASTERN MONTANA. MODELS
SHOW DIFFERENCES PAST THURSDAY NIGHT SO WENT WITH CLIMATOLOGY ON
THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE PROBLEM WITH ANOTHER SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA
IS THE ACCUMULATING RAINFALL IT WILL LIKELY CREATE. THIS WILL ONLY
PROLONG OUR FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. RSMITH

&&

.AVIATION...
AMENDMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRIEFLY BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS TO ANY TAF SITE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD A
THUNDERSTORM PASS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. BY 03Z...THE SEVERE THREAT
MOVES EASTWARD. EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY FOR ALL TAF SITES LATER FRIDAY MORNING AT LEAST INTO
THE 20G30KT RANGE. BMICKELSON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FOR THE MILK AND MUSSELSHELL BASINS...EXPECT ONGOING FLOODING OF
MAIN STEM RIVERS AND SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS DUE TO THE RAINFALL
THAT OCCURRED OVER THE RECENT HOLIDAY WEEKEND. FLOOD WARNINGS ARE
IN EFFECT.

THE MISSOURI RIVER BELOW FORT PECK DAM TO THE NORTH DAKOTA STATE
LINE WILL SEE A RISE IN THE RIVER WITH WATER RELEASES FROM FORT
PECK RESERVOIR. SEE LATEST HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
239 PM MDT THU JUN 2 2011

MTZ016-017-059>061-031200-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
NORTHERN PHILLIPS-SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-
239 PM MDT THU JUN 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...HAIL AND OR HEAVY RAINFALL AS THEY PASS THROUGH THE AREA.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT.

FLOODING IS OCCURRING ONCE AGAIN ON SMALL STREAMS IN VALLEY AND
PHILLIPS COUNTIES...ALONG WITH THE MILK RIVER FROM JUST BELOW
SACO TO THE CONFLUENCE WITH THE MISSOURI RIVER.

WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRIDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MTZ021-022-031200-
PETROLEUM-GARFIELD-
239 PM MDT THU JUN 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...HAIL AND OR HEAVY RAINFALL AS THEY PASS THROUGH THE AREA.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT FOR
GARFIELD COUNTY.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MUSSELSHELL RIVER AND SOME SMALL
STREAMS THROUGH THE WEEK.

WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MTZ025>027-031200-
DAWSON-PRAIRIE-WIBAUX-
239 PM MDT THU JUN 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...HAIL AND OR HEAVY RAINFALL AS THEY PASS THROUGH THE AREA.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MTZ020-023-024-062-031200-
WESTERN ROOSEVELT-MCCONE-RICHLAND-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-
239 PM MDT THU JUN 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...HAIL AND OR HEAVY RAINFALL AS THEY PASS THROUGH THE AREA.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT.

WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

FLOODING IS EXPECTED ON THE MISSOURI RIVER AS THE ARMY CORPS OF
ENGINEERS INCREASES RELEASES FROM FORT PECK RESERVOIR. A
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MISSOURI RIVER FROM
DOWNSTREAM OF FORT PECK DAM THROUGH THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MTZ018-019-031200-
DANIELS-SHERIDAN-
239 PM MDT THU JUN 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...HAIL AND OR HEAVY RAINFALL AS THEY PASS THROUGH THE AREA.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
140 PM MDT THU JUN 2 2011

MTZ016-060-022015-
PHILLIPS-
140 PM MDT THU JUN 2 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GLASGOW HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHERN PHILLIPS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...

UNTIL 215 PM MDT.

AT 138 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 16 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ZORTMAN...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...FOURCHETTE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4798 10803 4776 10784 4760 10841 4775 10854
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 240DEG 25KT 4772 10836

GAH
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

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