Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Glasgow, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
332 PM MDT WED JUN 29 2011

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
STRONG UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER N TX RIDGING INTO E MT BRINGING THE
FIRST 90S OF THE SUMMER TO MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HEAT TO BE SHORT-
LIVED. THE AIRMASS IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE. MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS
AT MID-/HIGH LEVELS...HOWEVER THERE HAS BEEN MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE S-SE AT LOWER LEVELS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.

UPPER LOW CENTER WEAKENING AND OPENING TO A TROUGH AS IT MOVES NE
THRU NV THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR CHANNEL SHOWS A MODEST MOISTURE
STREAM INTO MT FROM THIS...WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW-W
MOUNTAINS OF MT. THERE IS A COLD FRONT WITH THIS...BUT NOT VERY
DISTINCT YET.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES INTO OUR
W THIS EVE. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MODEST THOUGH AS MODELS HAVE THE
PRIMARY PART OS THE SYSTEM MOVING TO OUR S. WITH VERY HIGH
CONVECTIVE TEMPS...EXPECT THE STORMS FROM THE MOUNTAINS TO BE THE
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR AREA THIS EVE. 0-6KM SHEAR OVER 40
KT...PRECIP WATER UP TO 1.2. WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE MID-HIGH
LEVEL/VERY DRY BELOW...AND FAVORABLE POSITION OF 80KT JET...GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND. THE AIRMASS
IS TOO HOT FOR HAIL. MODEL QPF RANGES FROM LOW TO NONE AND APPEARS
TOO DRY. .SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE PER SWODY1 IN OUR W HALF OF CWA
LOOKS GOOD.

COOL ADVECTION FROM THE W STARTS IN STRONGLY LATE TONIGHT AND THU
MORN. MODELS INDICATE 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO AS MUCH AS 40 KT.
MODELS ALSO SHOW A POTENTIAL SHORT WINDOW WHERE THIS COULD MIX TO
THE SURFACE...SO MAY NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY EARLY THU MORN.
POST-FRONTAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THU IN AIRMASS THAT IS STILL
SOMEWHAT MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

LOTS OF DRYING FRI WITH MORE SUNSHINE INDICATED AS A DEEP W FLOW
DEVELOPS. MAY BE NEAR LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN. SIMONSEN

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE WESTERN STATES UNDER ZONAL FLOW OR
AN UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. AS A
RESULT THE AIRMASS OVER MONTANA WILL BECOME LESS MOIST DURING THIS
TIME AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE. AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL SAG SOUTHWARD OFFSHORE OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT IS GENERATED FROM THE LONGWAVE TROUGH NEAR
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ONE TRACKS THE ENERGY ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE...ANOTHER KEEPS IT WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARNING AREA.
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON PLACEMENT. THEREFORE THE MENTION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OMITTED. THIS FEATURE WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE BEING MONITORED. AES

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TO
EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH RAIN SHOWERS AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
STRONGER WINDS. SHOULD A STORM DEVELOP AND PASS NEAR A TERMINAL
SITE WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC. AES

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE RECENT STRETCH OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER HAS HELPED THE
CREEKS AND STREAMS IN NORTHEAST MONTANA TO RECEDE AND REMAIN
WITHIN THEIR BANKS. THE MUSSELSHELL AND MILK RIVER ARE STILL
RUNNING HIGH BUT ARE NO LONGER FLOODING. A FEW LOCATIONS ON THE
MISSOURI RIVER DOWNSTREAM OF THE FORT PECK DAM ARE STILL
EXPERIENCING IMPACTS FROM FLOODING. THE USACE HAS REDUCED THE
AMOUNT OF WATER RELEASED AND IS CURRENTLY HOLDING STEADY AT 55000
CFS. THE GAUGE AT WOLF POINT ON THE MISSOURI RIVER IS EXPECTED FALL
BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THIS WEEKEND. AES

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
402 PM MDT WED JUN 29 2011

MTZ016-017-021-022-059>061-302215-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
PETROLEUM-GARFIELD-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-
NORTHERN VALLEY-
402 PM MDT WED JUN 29 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ARRIVING TONIGHT. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS OF OVER 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MTZ020-023-024-062-302215-
WESTERN ROOSEVELT-MCCONE-RICHLAND-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-
402 PM MDT WED JUN 29 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE MISSOURI RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
647 PM MDT WED JUN 29 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     HAIL             WAGNER                  48.37N 108.08W
06/29/2011  E2.75 INCH       PHILLIPS           MT   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED BASEBALL SIZE HAIL KNOCKING HORSES OVER.

0625 PM     HAIL             7 N FOURCHETTE          47.83N 107.97W
06/29/2011  E0.88 INCH       PHILLIPS           MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED NICKEL SIZED HAIL. MEASURED 0.40 INCHES OF
            PRECIP.

&&

BB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
653 PM MDT WED JUN 29 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0652 PM     HAIL             CONTENT                 48.02N 107.56W
06/29/2011  E1.75 INCH       PHILLIPS           MT   CO-OP OBSERVER

            ESTIMATED GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL.

&&

RMETZGER

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