Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS Glasgow, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
748 PM MDT SAT AUG 27 2011

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

TONIGHT... LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE A QUASI
ZONAL/NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A LARGE SCALE RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND TROUGH OVER THE HUDSON BAY. NEAR THE
SURFACE A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP HIGHER DEWPOINTS
INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA. ENOUGH MOISTURE IS EVENTUALLY
ANTICIPATED TO MEET UP WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND FORM
EVENING SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND EAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANTICIPATED TO EJECT WITH THE MORNING SHORT WAVE FEATURE AND BRING
IN MORE DRY AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY AND
PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR DAY.

MONDAY... LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE BRITISH COLOMBIAN COAST WILL
BEGIN THROWING OFF SHORTWAVE VORT MAXES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. A NEW LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SET UP RAPIDLY DURING THE
MORNING AND BEGIN DRAWING IN MOISTURE AGAIN AS THE FIRST OF
STRONGER IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH FROM THE WEST. THIS IMPULSE IS
PEGGED TO HAPPEN DURING AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING AND MAY BRING SOME
ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL. GAH

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN EXPECTED TO BRING COOLER WEATHER TO NORTHEAST
MONTANA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. UNTIL THEN CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MODELS IN SOMEWHAT
GOOD AGREEMENT AT LEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS MONTANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS IS MUCH DEEPER WITH THIS TROF
THEN THE ECMWF OR GEM BUT MODELS VERY SIMILAR WITH EXPECTED
SENSIBLE WEATHER INTO THURSDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCE INCREASE LATE IN
THE WEEK AS ECMWF BRINGS A DEEP TROF ACROSS WESTERN CANADA ON
FRIDAY WHILE GFS AND GEM ARE MUCH WEAKER. MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST ON ACCOUNT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES. EBERT

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH
AN ACTIVE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
WILL BEGIN TO SINK INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY ON IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. BY THURSDAY IT WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS
OF MONTANA. BY FRIDAY IT IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE ACROSS MONTANA
AND SHOULD WELL INTO NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY. THEN FOR FRIDAY AND
NEXT SATURDAY RIDGING BUILDS INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA FOR DRY AND
FAIR CONDITIONS.

SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER AND OR WETTING RAINS FOR THE
REGION WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSING UPPER TROUGH ON THURSDAY
THEREFORE ENHANCED THE POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY TO SHOW A
HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE CLIMATOLOGICAL SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE AUGUST.

TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ON THE WARM
SIDE WITH 80S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THEN THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH WITH A STRONG PUSH OF COOLER AIR INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA TO KNOCK MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE 70S STARTING
THURSDAY AND LASTING INTO FIRST WEEKEND OF SEPTEMBER.      PROTON

&&

.AVIATION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DROPPING SOUTHEAST
THIS EVENING EAST OF A OPHEIM TO SIDNEY LINE...POSSIBLY BRINGING
STRONG WINDS AND DAMAGING HAIL. JAMBA

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
324 AM MDT SAT AUG 27 2011

MTZ018>021-024>027-059>062-280930-
DANIELS-SHERIDAN-WESTERN ROOSEVELT-PETROLEUM-RICHLAND-DAWSON-
PRAIRIE-WIBAUX-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-
NORTHERN VALLEY-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-
324 AM MDT SAT AUG 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MTZ016-017-022-023-280930-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
GARFIELD-MCCONE-
324 AM MDT SAT AUG 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY MAY PROVIDE STRONG ENOUGH
WINDS THAT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD BECOME NECESSARY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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