Lake Wind Advisory 21, NWS Glasgow, MT

674 
WWUS75 KGGW 232020
NPWGGW

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
220 PM MDT THU JUN 23 2011

MTZ016-017-021>023-240600-
/O.CON.KGGW.LW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-110624T0600Z/
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
PETROLEUM-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MALTA...SACO...GLASGOW...FORT PECK...
HINSDALE...FRAZER...WINNETT...JORDAN...CIRCLE
220 PM MDT THU JUN 23 2011

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT
TONIGHT FOR FORT PECK LAKE...

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT
TONIGHT. 

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 15 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AT 15 TO 20 MPH...THEN DIMINISH
  BELOW 15 MPH BY MIDNIGHT. 

* IMPACTS...WINDS OF THESE SPEEDS CAN MAKE BOATING DANGEROUS FOR
  SMALLER BOATS ON THE OPEN WATERS ON FORT PECK LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BOATING SAFETY BEGINS ON SHORE WITH ADVANCE PLANNING. BEFORE
SETTING OUT...CHECK THE LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS...ADVISORIES...
AND WARNINGS FOR YOUR BOATING AREA. 
&&

$$

822 
WWUS75 KGGW 240536
NPWGGW

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1136 PM MDT THU JUN 23 2011

MTZ016-017-021>023-240645-
/O.CAN.KGGW.LW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-110624T0600Z/
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
PETROLEUM-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MALTA...SACO...GLASGOW...FORT PECK...
HINSDALE...FRAZER...WINNETT...JORDAN...CIRCLE
1136 PM MDT THU JUN 23 2011

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED FOR FORT PECK LAKE...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GLASGOW HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
WIND ADVISORY. 

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO BELOW 20 MPH.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
924 PM MDT WED JUN 22 2011

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
NO UPDATES TONIGHT...THE FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE. CONVECTION IS
QUICKLY DYING OFF AS THE SUN SETS AND SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER.
EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND VERY
MOIST CONDITIONS. WARM LOWS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW WITH FALLING HEIGHTS AND A FEW
SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE AREA. RNL

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB
HEIGHT FIELD A VERY LARGE AND DYNAMIC UPPER LOW CENTER OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION SPREADING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE GULF STATES AND SOME OF THE
EASTERN STATES. A MODEST UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST IS SUPPORTING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SPREADING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES REGIONS. THIS RIDGE IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CALM AND TRANQUIL WEATHER IN PLACE OVER
MONTANA TODAY. ALTHOUGH...WITH PEAK HEATING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA...VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PATTERN WE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE LOSS OF MAXIMUM
HEATING...SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVAPORATE WITH
THEM...LEAVING ONLY SILENT CHANCES IN THEIR WAKE AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

THURSDAY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND SEVERAL SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS
LINE UP FOR HEAVY RAIN...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS. EVEN
THOUGH SHOWERS WILL TRY TO GET A FOOTHOLD OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES
DURING THE DAY...THE MAIN FORCING AND SUPPORT FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL
DATA INDICATES THERE MAY ALSO BE A BRIEF THREAT FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES OVER SOUTHERN PETROLEUM AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN GARFIELD
COUNTIES SOMETIME BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
ENHANCED THREAT FOR TORNADOES WOULD THEN PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO MORE OF SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA AS THE HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL
BEGINS TO SPREAD OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH PEAK HEATING...CAPE
VALUES ARE MAXIMIZED BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL MONTANA WHICH WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AND SPREAD
OVER THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN MONTANA THROUGH THE NIGHT. CAPE
VALUES UP TO 1000 J/KG WILL STILL ALLOW SOME OF THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE SUSTAINED ACROSS OUR CWA.

FRIDAY...AS THE RESIDUAL ENERGY CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD...SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL BE ABLE TO RE-DEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OVER OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES AS CLEARING AND SUBSIDENCE
MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A LONG-WAVE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED BY A CLOSED
LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN CANADA. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL GENERATE AN
LONG PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FLUCTUATING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A
CONTINUING INFLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE A RATHER
UNSTABLE PERIOD. THEREFORE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED.
BASED ON STRONG CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SPC HAS PLACED OUR EASTERN
ZONES IN AN AREA OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
SATURDAY.

AROUND TUESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF MONTANA WHILE
ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WILL
ALLOW A RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHICH WILL
QUIET CONDITIONS AT LEAST THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

POSTED A FEW CHANGES TO DAY 3 NIGHT AND DAY 4 POPS/WX GRIDS BASED
ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...MAINLY TO INCREASE SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE. ALSO ADJUSTED WEEKEND TEMPERATURES BASED ON BIAS ADJUSTED
GUIDANCE. SCT

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. TOMORROW AFTERNOON STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME STORMS SEVERE. RNL

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE MILK RIVER FROM TAMPICO THROUGH NASHUA
ALTHOUGH WATER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
FALL MORE QUICKLY. THE MILK RIVER AT TAMPICO AND NASHUA MAY FALL
BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THIS WEEKEND. THE MILK RIVER AT GLASGOW IS
EXPECTED TO RECEDE ABOUT ONE FOOT PER DAY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS.

FLOODING ALSO CONTINUES ALONG THE MUSSELSHELL RIVER AND FLATWILLOW
CREEK IN PETROLEUM COUNTY...AND THE POPLAR RIVER NORTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING AND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE.

WATER RELEASES WILL CONTINUE FROM FORT PECK DAM AT AROUND 60K
CFS. THE MISSOURI RIVER FROM BELOW THE DAM TO THE NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN HIGH DUE TO THESE RELEASES COMBINED
WITH THE WATER FLOWING FROM THE MILK RIVER. LITTLE CHANGE IN
RIVER LEVEL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL AGAIN BRING SOME CHANCE
FOR FLASH FLOODING...HOWEVER...AS RIVER AND CREEK LEVELS WILL
HAVE DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY BY FRIDAY...THE THREAT FROM FLASH FLOODING IS
LESS THAN PREVIOUS SYSTEMS. BMICKELSON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
933 PM MDT WED JUN 22 2011

MTZ018-019-021>027-060-062-240345-
DANIELS-SHERIDAN-PETROLEUM-GARFIELD-MCCONE-RICHLAND-DAWSON-
PRAIRIE-WIBAUX-SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-
933 PM MDT WED JUN 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE MILK AND MISSOURI RIVERS
FROM TAMPICO EAST TO THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER. FLOOD WARNINGS ARE
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR A FEW RIVERS AND SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS IN
THE AREA...PRIMARILY POPLAR AND MUSSELSHELL RIVERS AND FLATWILLOW
CREEK. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH
WILL GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS.  LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE PERIODS OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MTZ016-017-020-059-061-240345-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
WESTERN ROOSEVELT-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-
933 PM MDT WED JUN 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH
WILL GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS.  LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE PERIODS OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.