Flash Flood Warning 26, NWS Glasgow, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
810 PM MDT FRI JUL 15 2011

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

EVENING UPDATE...
MAIN UPDATES FOR THE EVENING INCLUDE RAISING POPS ACROSS THE AREA
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASE IN EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY VENTURE OVER INTO THE
YELLOWSTONE VALLEY BEFORE CROSSING OVER THE BORDER AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SKY COVER WAS ALSO RAMPED UP TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.

A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL JETS WHICH ARE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
HAVE COUPLED THEIR RISING ZONES AND ARE ADDING TO LIFT ALONG A
DEVELOPED DRYLINE IN PHILLIPS AND VALLEY COUNTY AND SUBSEQUENT
THINLINES TO THE EAST OF THE DRY LINE. BULK WIND SHEAR IS ALSO
INCREASING AHEAD OF THESE CELLS AND THEREFORE A FEW STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CAP IN
THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER DARK WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO A SLOW WEAKENING AND MORE ISOLATED NATURE TO ANY SEVERE
CELLS AS THEY PUSH ACROSS THE DAKOTA BORDER AROUND MIDNIGHT. GAH

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
A PERSISTENT WEST COAST TROUGH DOES NOT LET UP IN FEEDING WARM
MOIST AIR INTO MONTANA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. IN ADDITION
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUITE UNSTABLE DURING THE PERIOD...ONLY
NEEDING SOME DISTURBANCE OR BOUNDARY TO SET OFF THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER THE MIDDLE OF CONUS AND WILL EXPAND
TO THE WEST. THE RESULT WILL BE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES OF AROUND
10*F ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY.

THE MORNING GGW SOUNDING LOOKS SIMILAR TO THAT OF YESTERDAY WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER...A LIFTED INDEX OF -5*C AND
POSITIVE ENERGY OF AROUND 2K J/KG. WITH A FREEZING LEVEL OF AROUND
12K FT...LARGE HAIL IS AGAIN POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS ALOFT TIED
INTO ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD GENERATE STRONG WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
THE SWODY1 UPDATE ISSUED BY SPC PLACES A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
MAINLY OVER THE BILLINGS CWA AND OUR ZONES SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEREFORE WITH ANOTHER UNSTABLE
DAY IN STORE WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SEVERAL BOUNDARIES
NEARBY AND EXPECTING THE CAP TO ERODE BY AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BEGIN FIRING THEN. THE DAY LOOKS LESS DYNAMIC THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE INCREASED POPS TO HIGH
CHANCE. MAINTAINED SEVERE MENTION FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON SPC
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...UPPER FLOW CONTINUES FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT THE
DISTURBANCES WILL TREND MORE TO THE NORTH. TIMING SUGGESTS THAT
SUPER-CELL DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE TO OUR EAST...SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE SEVERE WORDING. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE NORTH OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CREEP UP. ADJMET AND
ADJMAV GUIDANCE RAMP UP HIGHS INTO THE MID 90S FOR SUNDAY. SCT

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY...DRIVING TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST MONTANA. POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON DURING THIS TIME AS
WELL...THANKS TO DISTURBANCES AND MOISTURE BEING USHERED IN IN A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS BROKEN DOWN. THAT BEING SAID THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED POPS FOR
NOW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...NOW DOMINATED BY LOW PRESSURE ALOFT. THIS WILL MAKE
FOR MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A RIDGE ORIENTED UP THE SPINE OT THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT RANGE FROM COLORADO UP TO THE US/CANADA
INTERNATIONAL BORDER THEN JOGGING OVER INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE A LARGE TROUGH EXISTS WITH ONE OVER
THE HUDSON BAY AD THE OTHER ON THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
JET FLOW BETWEEN THE PACNW TROUGH AND THE MONTANA RIDGE WILL ORIENT
ANY SHORTWAVES WELL TO THE NORTH DECREASING POPS TO NEAR NOTHING
AND RAISE TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE PACNW TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO BARREL THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND BROADEN AS IT
IMPACT EASTERN MONTANA. THIS SHOULD BRING A COLD FRONT REDUCING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THIS PASSAGE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THURSDAY ONWARD... FORECAST IS LOOKING MORE ZONAL WITH SOME RISE
IN TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASED RISK FOR SHOWERS. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS. THESE STORMS MAY
GENERATE BRIEF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AS THEY CROSS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WITH GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. GILCHRIST

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
229 PM MDT FRI JUL 15 2011

MTZ016>027-059>062-161000-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
DANIELS-SHERIDAN-WESTERN ROOSEVELT-PETROLEUM-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
RICHLAND-DAWSON-PRAIRIE-WIBAUX-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-
229 PM MDT FRI JUL 15 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THIS WEEKEND WILL START A WARMING TREND...THAT WILL LAST THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 90S
BY SUNDAY...REACHING NEAR TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. PERSONS ARE ADVISED TO TAKE
PRECAUTIONS TO DEAL WITH THE HEAT...SUCH AS LIMITING TIME OUTDOORS
AND DRINKING PLENTY OF FLUIDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
830 PM MDT FRI JUL 15 2011

MTZ017-061-160330-
VALLEY-
830 PM MDT FRI JUL 15 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GLASGOW HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL VALLEY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...

UNTIL 930 PM MDT.

AT 829 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TAMPICO...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...
ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
   TAMPICO...
   SAINT MARIE...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 4873 10660 4837 10620 4800 10709 4827 10721
TIME...MOT...LOC 0231Z 230DEG 30KT 4826 10700

GFF
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
838 PM MDT FRI JUL 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     HAIL             5 WSW VANDALIA          48.33N 107.00W
07/15/2011  E0.50 INCH       VALLEY             MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MOSTLY PEA SIZED HAIL

&&

JB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
838 PM MDT FRI JUL 15 2011

MTZ022-023-026-160345-
GARFIELD-MCCONE-PRAIRIE-
838 PM MDT FRI JUL 15 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GLASGOW HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN PRAIRIE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...
  SOUTHERN MCCONE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...
  SOUTHEASTERN GARFIELD COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...

UNTIL 945 PM MDT.

AT 833 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 16 MILES NORTHEAST OF HILLSIDE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
   FLOWING WELLS REST AREA...
   BROCKWAY...
   CIRCLE...

LAT...LON 4689 10682 4747 10610 4746 10541 4684 10554
TIME...MOT...LOC 0238Z 222DEG 29KT 4712 10614

GFF
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

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