Wind Advisory 12, NWS Fort Worth, TX

192 
WWUS74 KFWD 232016
NPWFWD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
316 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

...WIND ADVISORY FOR NORTH TEXAS CANCELED...

.WINDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

TXZ103>105-118>121-133-134-144>146-157>161-174-175-232130-
/O.CAN.KFWD.WI.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-110423T2200Z/
DENTON-COLLIN-HUNT-TARRANT-DALLAS-ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-JOHNSON-ELLIS-
BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-MILAM-
ROBERTSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...
THE COLONY...PLANO...GREENVILLE...COMMERCE...FORT WORTH...
ARLINGTON...DALLAS...ROCKWALL...TERRELL...KAUFMAN...FORNEY...
CLEBURNE...BURLESON...WAXAHACHIE...ENNIS...MIDLOTHIAN...
GLENN HEIGHTS...CLIFTON...MERIDIAN...VALLEY MILLS...HILLSBORO...
CORSICANA...COPPERAS COVE...GATESVILLE...KILLEEN...TEMPLE...
FORT HOOD...WACO...MARLIN...MEXIA...GROESBECK...CAMERON...
ROCKDALE...HEARNE...FRANKLIN...CALVERT
316 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS CANCELED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

WINDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
900 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

.AVIATION...
14Z AMENDMENTS.
AFTER ANALYZING ALL THE MORNING MODELS...THERE IS PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE FRONTAL LOCATION SITTING ACROSS THE METROPLEX
THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR/4KM WRF/WORKSTATION WRF/NAM/GFS ALL DEVELOP
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT...SO I WILL AMEND THE METROPLEX TAFS ASAP
FOR TSRA FROM 23-03Z. AT THIS TIME THE THREAT TOO HIGH TO IGNORE. 84

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2011/
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG A LINE FROM
TULSA TO OKLAHOMA CITY TO CHILDRESS. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXACT SPEED OF ITS
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
A BIT SLOWER WITH THE FORWARD PROGRESSION AND ONLY HAVE THE
BOUNDARY NEAR A MONTAGUE/YOUNG LINE AT 00Z THIS EVENING. THE HIGH-
RES MODELS...NAM/WRF/HRRR...ARE A BIT FASTER AND HAVE THE FRONT
NEAR A SHERMAN/BRECKENRIDGE LINE AT 00Z. THE EXACT POSITIONING OF
THE FRONT WILL BE KEY...AS AREAS SE OF THE BOUNDARY WOULD BE AT
GREATER RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE AS THEY TYPICALLY ARE BETTER WITH THE HANDLING OF THESE
SHALLOW/WEAK FRONTS. THE MAIN QUESTION OF THE PAST TWO AFTERNOONS
WAS WHETHER OR NOT THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE CWA FOR THE
INITIATION OF STORMS AND THIS QUESTION SHOULDNT EXIST TODAY. AS
THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH...FAIRLY STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD INITIALLY FORCE THE PARCELS UPWARDS TO THEIR
LFC. COMBINE THIS WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON...AND INITIATION SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM. THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ABOUT TO ENTER SW NEW MEXICO. INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
EXTREMELY HIGH AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP. CAPE
VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL APPROACH 4000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. THE SHEAR VECTOR IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND THE STORM MODE SHOULD QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO A BROKEN
LINE OF STORMS...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN IN OKLAHOMA YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN ANY INTERACTIONS WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...
ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE EXPECTED TIMING OF ANY
SEVERE CONDITIONS WILL BE BETWEEN 22Z AND 04Z. IT SHOULD TAKE
SURFACE HEATING TO BREAK THE CAP AND THIS SHOULD OCCUR BY 22Z.
STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS IS PROBABLE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN QUESTION AS TO WHERE THE STORMS WILL INITIATE IS ONCE
AGAIN DEPENDENT ON THE POSITIONING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
HIGH-RES MODELS KEEP THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE GFS/ECMWF POSITION.
AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE ALL OF NORTH TEXAS MAY BE UNDER THE
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-20 WILL HAVE THE
BEST CHANCES.

STORM CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE EAST OF I-35 ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS A DRYLINE MOVES NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR. BY TUESDAY EVENING...A
STRONG TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA. THIS WILL CLEAR OUT OUR
MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES. THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK
SHOULD BE SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S AND LOWS APPROACHING
40 DEGREES FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

85/NH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  89  69  83  70  88 /  20  50  30  40  30
WACO, TX              92  72  89  72  86 /   5  20  20  20  20
PARIS, TX             85  64  82  66  80 /  20  50  30  40  40
DENTON, TX            88  66  80  69  86 /  30  50  30  40  20
MCKINNEY, TX          88  69  81  70  84 /  20  50  30  40  30
DALLAS, TX            90  70  84  70  87 /  20  40  30  40  30
TERRELL, TX           90  69  84  69  84 /  10  30  20  40  30
CORSICANA, TX         92  69  88  70  85 /   5  20  20  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            92  70  88  71  86 /   5  10  10  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     91  68  82  67  89 /  30  50  40  40  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

 /

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1052 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-241215-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
1052 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR
THROUGH 5 PM. WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
35 MPH. SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN.

THE DRY LINE MAY REACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR TUESDAY...RESULTING IN
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.