Wind Advisory 10, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Bell County, TX, Bosque County, TX, Collin County, TX, Comanche County, TX, Cooke County, TX, Coryell County, TX, Dallas County, TX, Denton County, TX, Eastland County, TX, Ellis County, TX, Erath County, TX, Falls County, TX, Grayson County, TX, Hamilton County, TX, Hill County, TX, Hood County, TX, Jack County, TX, Johnson County, TX, Lampasas County, TX, McLennan County, TX, Milam County, TX, Mills County, TX, Montague County, TX, Palo Pinto County, TX, Parker County, TX, Rockwall County, TX, Somervell County, TX, Stephens County, TX, Tarrant County, TX, Wise County, TX, Young County, TX

813 
WWUS74 KFWD 180045
NPWFWD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
745 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2011


...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

.THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT HAVE GUSTED TO AROUND 40 MPH AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET. THUS THE WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15
TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 25 MPH ARE STILL LIKELY OVERNIGHT.


TXZ091>093-100>104-115>120-129>134-141>145-156>160-174-180145-
/O.EXP.KFWD.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-110418T0100Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-STEPHENS-
PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-ROCKWALL-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-
SOMERVELL-JOHNSON-ELLIS-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-MILAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...
SHERMAN...DENISON...GRAHAM...OLNEY...JACKSBORO...DECATUR...
BRIDGEPORT...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...THE COLONY...
PLANO...BRECKENRIDGE...MINERAL WELLS...WEATHERFORD...BRIAR...
FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...DALLAS...ROCKWALL...CISCO...EASTLAND...
RANGER...GORMAN...STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...GRANBURY...
OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE...CLEBURNE...BURLESON...WAXAHACHIE...
ENNIS...MIDLOTHIAN...GLENN HEIGHTS...COMANCHE...DE LEON...
GOLDTHWAITE...HAMILTON...HICO...CLIFTON...MERIDIAN...
VALLEY MILLS...HILLSBORO...LAMPASAS...COPPERAS COVE...
GATESVILLE...KILLEEN...TEMPLE...FORT HOOD...WACO...MARLIN...
CAMERON...ROCKDALE
745 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2011

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING. 

THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT HAVE GUSTED TO AROUND 40 MPH AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET. THUS THE WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15
TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 25 MPH ARE STILL LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1218 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2011

.AVIATION...
ANOTHER WINDY DAY IS IN STORE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH WHICH WILL PREVENT ANY CROSSWIND
PROBLEMS. SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 20KTS WITH 30KT GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS
WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 15 KNOT
RANGE OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP ACROSS THE
REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALREADY EVIDENT ON SATELLITE AS LOW
CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. WILL
BUMP UP THE ARRIVAL OF MVFR CIGS TO THE AIRPORTS A COUPLE OF
HOURS. CURRENT TIMING HAS THEM IN WACO AROUND 2 AM AND INTO THE
METRO AROUND 4AM. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR ANY IFR
CONDITIONS. CIGS WILL LIFT AND SCATTER AROUND NOON.

85/NH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2011/
SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH TODAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35
MPH AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. GULF
MOISTURE WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THIS EVENING AND THUS RH WILL FALL
INTO THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE RH/WINDS
ARE MORE MARGINAL AND FUELS SEEM TO BE IN BETTER SHAPE. WILL FORGO
A WIND ADVISORY BUT A FEW LOCATIONS MAY FLIRT WITH CRITERIA
TODAY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM TODAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION. 60S DEWPOINTS AND NOCTURNAL STRATUS RETURN TONIGHT
AND END THE COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS AS WELL.

WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION MONDAY
AND A DRY LINE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES. A STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE AREA AND WITH NO UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS TO AIDE IN LIFT...NO CONVECTION IS FORECAST MONDAY. BY
TUESDAY A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND HELP PUSH DRY
LINE INTO THE CENTRAL CWA. FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHOULD PROVIDE SOME LIFTING OF THE CAP/ERODING CIN...PRIMARILY
NORTH OF I-20. IF CAP BREAKS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WOULD FIRE
ALONG THE DRY LINE...AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE NORTHEAST ZONES.
INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY HIGH AND SHEAR ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS
AND SEVERE WX. TO THE WEST OF THE DRY LINE...TEMPS SOAR INTO THE
MID 90S WITH RH FALLING TO NEAR 10 PERCENT AND SW WINDS AT 20
MPH...SO THIS WILL BE ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY.

AS THE SHORTWAVE HEADS EAST A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. COOLER HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
NORTH OF I-20. MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION OF STALLING
THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH HEIGHT RISES AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ARGUE AGAINST POPS...MOISTURE POOLING AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARGUE FOR POPS. HAVE
INTRODUCED SOME 20 POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

FRONT HEADS BACK TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PRECIP FORECAST
GETS RATHER MURKY THEREAFTER DUE TO POOR MODEL AGREEMENT. PREFER
THE GEM/ECMWF FORECASTS OF PRIMARY STORM CHANCES MAINLY NW AND N
OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY NEAR THE OLD FRONT AND ORGANIZING DRY
LINE...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SOME LOW POPS IN THE NW ZONES DUE TO
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THESE FEATURES. BY FRIDAY DRY LINE IS FORECAST
BY THE ECMWF TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...AND THUS WILL KEEP POPS GOING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

ECMWF SHOWS DRY LINE REMAINING ACTIVE OVER OUR AREA INTO SATURDAY
BUT THE GFS PUSHES A STRONG FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. GFS FRONT IS
NOT SUPPORTED BY ECMWF/GEM/UKMET MODELS AND THUS WILL KEEP THE
WARM/HUMID FORECAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED LOW POPS
FOR POSSIBLE DRY LINE CONVECTION.

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  83  65  88  70  92 /   0   0   5   5  20
WACO, TX              84  65  88  72  91 /   0   0   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             79  58  80  68  86 /   0   0   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            84  64  88  69  93 /   0   0   5   5  20
MCKINNEY, TX          81  62  85  70  89 /   0   0   5   5  20
DALLAS, TX            83  65  87  71  91 /   0   0   5   5  20
TERRELL, TX           82  62  84  69  89 /   0   0   5   5  20
CORSICANA, TX         83  63  85  70  89 /   0   0   5   5  20
TEMPLE, TX            85  64  87  71  92 /   0   0   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     84  64  94  64  96 /   0   0   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091-092-
100>103-115>119-129>134-141>147-156>162-174-175.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ100-101-115-116-129-
130-141>143.

&&

85/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
406 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-181200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
406 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH TEXAS TODAY. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR MOST OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 8 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH
TEXAS EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS
COULD BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DUNN