Special Weather Statement, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
548 PM CST MON NOV 21 2011

.AVIATION...

CONCERNS...CONVECTION//SEVERE POTENTIAL// AND IFR CONDITIONS.

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...PER WATER VAPOR LOOP...PUSHING INTO WEST
TEXAS THIS EVENING AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVERRUNNING A STRONG
FRONT RUNNING FROM KJCT TO KTPL...KHOT. CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION
OCCURRING ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH OF THE METROPLEX. AS UPPER
FORCING CONTINUES TO INCREASE THIS EVENING...ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. EXPECT KDFW
TRACON TO BE AFFECTED BY THIS TSRA AND IFR-MVFR CIGS/VIS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF...AND A REPEAT FOR BOTH KDFW AND KACT TRACONS
04-08Z. ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF HAIL AROUND ONE
INCH...AND THOSE OCCURRING IN THE WARM SECTOR COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS.

THE FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND KACT WILL SEE
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN OVERNIGHT...ONLY TO RETURN NORTHERLY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

AFTER 08Z...UPPER FORCING AND DYNAMICS FOR STRONG CONVECTION
SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE TAF SITES...BUT LOW CIGS SHOULD
LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK AND SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR MIDDAY OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. 75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CST MON NOV 21 2011/
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS WILL CROSS
OKLAHOMA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ATOP THE FRONTAL INVERSION WILL INCREASE
AND STRENGTHEN ISENTROPIC LIFT. ALREADY THIS PROCESS IS OCCURRING
ACROSS THE NW ZONES WHERE WIDESPREAD RAIN/STORMS ARE BREAKING OUT
IN CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION. REGION
OF BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST...MAXIMIZED
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 BETWEEN NOW AND 10 PM.

MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSING NORTH THROUGH THE
EASTERN ZONES...LIKELY REACHING A LINE FROM BONHAM TO DALLAS TO
GATESVILLE BY MIDNIGHT. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70...WITH MOST LOCATIONS ALONG/EAST
OF I-35 EXPERIENCING RISING TEMPS THIS EVENING. ONCE THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS ARRIVES INTO THE REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT...THE WARM
FRONT WILL STALL AND SLOSH BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT.
AS THE FRONT STARTS MOVING SOUTHEAST...A LINE OF STORMS SHOULD
FORM ALONG THE FRONT DUE TO LIFT FROM FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
COMBINED WITH DYNAMIC FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE. THIS LINE OF
STORMS WILL GENERALLY AFFECT THE EASTERN/SOUTHERN ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA BY MID MORNING.

THE NORTHWARD SURGE OF THE WARM FRONT WILL EXPOSE THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA TO THE WARM SECTOR...WHERE MODEST SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. STRONGLY SHEARED AIR MASS WILL ALLOW
FOR A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A CANTON TO
TEMPLE LINE. ISOLATED TORNADOES CANT BE RULED OUT...HOWEVER THIS
THREAT IS CONDITIONAL TO WHETHER DISCRETE STORMS DEVELOP
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE A FEW ELEVATED STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD SECTOR THIS EVENING.

COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TOMORROW. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON THE DURATION/COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS TOMORROW
AND THUS THE HIGH TEMP FORECAST IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE. AM SIDING
WITH THE COOLER GUIDANCE SINCE THE HIGH RES MODELS AND SREF ARE
ALL INDICATING LOW CLOUDS IN A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE.
EITHER WAY...ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE SHOULD ERADICATE CLOUDS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES AND TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RATHER PLEASANT.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES FRIDAY...AND MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY
RETURN TO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE GENERALLY
CLOUDY BY FRIDAY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION. NOT A LOT
OF TIME FOR AIR MASS MODIFICATION...AND THUS INSTABILITY IS
PROBABLY TOO LIMITED FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONFIRM SHOWERS OR STEADY RAIN WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE...SO WILL REMOVE THUNDER EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE
EASTERN ZONES. RAIN SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH WINDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY.

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  52  63  44  69  44 / 100  10   0   0   0
WACO, TX              58  68  43  69  40 / 100  20   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             56  63  42  66  39 / 100  20   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            50  62  39  68  38 / 100  10   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          53  61  40  68  37 / 100  10   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            53  63  45  69  45 / 100  10   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           56  64  43  68  40 / 100  30   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         61  67  45  70  42 / 100  40   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            60  71  44  71  40 /  90  30   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     48  65  39  70  39 / 100  10   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

75/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
320 PM CST MON NOV 21 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-221200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
320 PM CST MON NOV 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS. THE BEST
COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERNIGHT AS A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SOME SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME...BUT MOST LIKELY IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR A WARM FRONT
MOVING NORTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OUT OF THE REGION
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH NORTH TEXAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

25

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
411 PM CST MON NOV 21 2011

TXZ116-212245-
PALO PINTO TX-
411 PM CST MON NOV 21 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN PALO PINTO COUNTY

AT 410 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES WEST OF MINERAL WELLS...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE GRAFORD AND MINERAL WELLS.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3301 9839 3300 9806 3273 9806 3265 9810
      3269 9844
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 207DEG 35KT 3284 9825

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
423 PM CST MON NOV 21 2011

TXZ101-102-117-212300-
JACK TX-WISE TX-PARKER TX-
423 PM CST MON NOV 21 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN JACK COUNTY
  NORTHWESTERN PARKER COUNTY
  WISE COUNTY

AT 423 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BRIDGEPORT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ALVORD...AURORA...BOYD...
BRIDGEPORT...CHICO...DECATUR...SPRINGTOWN...BOONSVILLE...COTTONDALE
AND POOLVILLE.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3343 9738 3299 9740 3299 9761 3284 9787
      3298 9806 3301 9806 3300 9809 3306 9817
      3343 9792
TIME...MOT...LOC 2223Z 228DEG 50KT 3311 9787

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
500 PM CST MON NOV 21 2011

TXZ091-092-102-103-212330-
DENTON TX-MONTAGUE TX-WISE TX-COOKE TX-
500 PM CST MON NOV 21 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  COOKE COUNTY
  DENTON COUNTY
  SOUTHEASTERN MONTAGUE COUNTY
  NORTHEASTERN WISE COUNTY

AT 459 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF DECATUR...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 50 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
ALVORD...ARGYLE...AUBREY...DECATUR...DENTON...GAINESVILLE...LINDSAY..
.MUENSTER...NORTHLAKE...PILOT POINT...SANGER...SHADY SHORES...AND
RAY ROBERTS PARK.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3383 9744 3383 9737 3389 9733 3387 9726
      3392 9724 3391 9719 3384 9716 3380 9720
      3372 9714 3373 9710 3380 9711 3382 9706
      3385 9710 3385 9703 3390 9699 3390 9694
      3316 9697 3301 9745 3337 9787 3392 9748
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 228DEG 51KT 3333 9749

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
521 PM CST MON NOV 21 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0519 PM     FLOOD            POTTSBORO               33.75N  96.67W
11/21/2011                   GRAYSON            TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            APPROXIMATELY 5" OF WATER ON SH 289 NORTH OF POTTSBORO
            AND FM 120 WEST OF POTTSBORO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
604 PM CST MON NOV 21 2011

TXZ092-093-220030-
GRAYSON TX-COOKE TX-
604 PM CST MON NOV 21 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN COOKE COUNTY
  GRAYSON COUNTY

AT 603 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTH OF WHITESBORO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
55 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CALLISBURG...COLLINSVILLE...
DENISON...DORCHESTER...GAINESVILLE...GUNTER...KNOLLWOOD...
POTTSBORO...SHERMAN...WHITESBORO...WILLIS AND EISENHOWER STATE PARK.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3386 9686 3388 9679 3383 9676 3384 9671
      3392 9665 3389 9658 3384 9662 3382 9652
      3378 9650 3379 9642 3373 9638 3366 9638
      3340 9682 3365 9721 3373 9714 3373 9710
      3378 9710 3397 9692
TIME...MOT...LOC 0003Z 226DEG 50KT 3360 9689