Special Weather Statement, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
603 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

.UPDATE...
WILL UPDATE TO ADD SOME POPS ONE ROW OF COUNTIES FARTHER WEST
SINCE REFLICTIVITY STARTING TO APPEAR IN JACK COUNTY. 84

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011/
IT WOULD BE MORE APPROPRIATE TO CALL THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT HAS
ENTERED OUR NW CWA A WEAK COLD FRONT AND NOT A DRY LINE...AS
PRESSURE RISES HAVE BEEN OCCURRING BEHIND IT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR ADVECTING SE. THIS WEAK FRONT IS NOW STALLING ALONG A LINE FROM
NEAR GAINESVILLE TO MINERAL WELLS TO BROWNWOOD. MEANWHILE A
POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS
TONIGHT WITH PV AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PROVIDING STRONG FORCING
ACROSS OUR REGION. MUCH OF THIS FORCING WILL BE SPENT REMOVING
THE CAP...BUT AS THE WARMER AIR IS LIFTED ALOFT...MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL SUBSEQUENTLY WEAKEN. CIN SHOULD ERODE ALONG THE FRONT
BY SUNSET AND EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THEREAFTER.

THERE WILL BE A SMALL CORRIDOR AND LIMITED TIME WINDOW WHEN
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. SURFACED BASED CONVECTION
WILL POSE THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT AS IT WILL
HAVE THE HIGHER INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. THIS THREAT IS POSSIBLE
/BUT NOT PROBABLE/ ROUGHLY 20 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
CLEBURNE TO SHERMAN...AND BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 6 AND 9 PM.
OTHERWISE EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO BE PRIMARILY ELEVATED
THIS EVENING...WITH UNSTABLE PARCELS GENERALLY ORIGINATING IN THE
750-800 MB LAYER. THESE PARCELS WILL CONTAIN CAPE VALUES AROUND
500-1000J/KG...SO NOT OVERLY HIGH. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS VERY
STRONG...AND THUS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE EVEN IF
THEY ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONT SHOULD HEAD EAST AND INTO A REGION OF HIGHER CIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES AND LIKELY WEAKEN AND PERHAPS DISSIPATE AS STORMS
OUT-RUN THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING. THIS IS WHAT THE RUC/HRRR HAS
BEEN INDICATING. THUS THE BEST POPS AND HIGHEST QPF WILL BE IN A
BAND BISECTING THE CWA FROM SW TO NE...OR JUST EAST OF THE STALLED
FRONT. LATER TONIGHT A PLUME OF HIGHER MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD
PROVIDE FOR SOME CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SHOWERS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. IN THE DRIER AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...MUCH OF THIS
WILL EVAPORATE...BUT DO HAVE LOW POPS THERE AS WELL. ALL RAIN
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL HAVE
SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR EAST EARLY MON AM.

GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND MODEST NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH
COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SIT OVER NORTH TEXAS
MONDAY NIGHT AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BRING LOW
TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE URBAN
HEAT ISLAND. ANOTHER NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS WINDS QUIETLY
SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST. STRONGER SOUTH WINDS AND MORE
MOISTURE/WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS
THURSDAY AND PUSH A FRONT THROUGH HERE THURSDAY EVENING. MOISTURE
LOOKS A BIT TOO LIMITED FOR ANY GOOD RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH VERY LOW POPS EAST OF I-35.

LOOKING AT THE BROADER FLOW IT APPEARS A PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR
WITH THE MAIN UPPER HIGHS/LOWS SHIFTING POSITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRING SOME COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION FOR A FEW DAYS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WHETHER THIS PATTERN CHANGE RESULTS IN ANY BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN
REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  60  79  52  81  56 /  60  10   0   0   0
WACO, TX              60  80  48  81  54 /  50  10   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             64  76  48  76  51 /  60  20   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            55  78  43  81  52 /  50   5   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          60  78  43  79  50 /  60  10   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            62  79  54  81  57 /  60  10   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           62  77  48  80  54 /  50  10   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         64  80  52  80  55 /  50  10   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            60  82  49  81  54 /  50  10   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     51  78  46  80  51 /  20   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

 /

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
707 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-111100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
707 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 123 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM FOR COUNTIES ALONG
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM LAMPASAS TO HILLSBORO TO COOPER.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND LATER TONIGHT AS THEY SWEEP
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 ON
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
705 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

TXZ101-116-110030-
JACK TX-PALO PINTO TX-
705 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EASTERN JACK COUNTY
  PALO PINTO COUNTY

AT 706 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES NORTH OF MINERAL WELLS...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE GORDON...GRAFORD...
JACKSBORO...MINERAL WELLS AND POSSUM KINGDOM STATE PARK.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT MONDAY
MORNING FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3290 9857 3296 9848 3295 9842 3299 9842
      3344 9795 3344 9793 3301 9792 3300 9805
      3261 9806 3254 9810 3253 9856
TIME...MOT...LOC 0006Z 223DEG 29KT 3300 9808

85/NH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
717 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

TXZ091-101-102-110045-
MONTAGUE TX-JACK TX-WISE TX-
717 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EASTERN JACK COUNTY
  SOUTHERN MONTAGUE COUNTY
  NORTHWESTERN WISE COUNTY

AT 718 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF BRIDGEPORT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ALVORD...BOWIE...
BRIDGEPORT...CHICO...BOONSVILLE AND FORESTBURG.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT MONDAY
MORNING FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3358 9751 3320 9769 3301 9793 3300 9816
      3333 9811 3372 9773
TIME...MOT...LOC 0018Z 213DEG 44KT 3337 9789

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
742 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

TXZ091-092-110115-
MONTAGUE TX-COOKE TX-
742 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WESTERN COOKE COUNTY
  EASTERN MONTAGUE COUNTY

AT 743 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES NORTH OF DECATUR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
55 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BOWIE...GAINESVILLE...
LINDSAY...MUENSTER...ST. JO AND FORESTBURG.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT MONDAY
MORNING FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3392 9750 3389 9745 3383 9744 3383 9739
      3385 9736 3373 9715 3343 9717 3344 9778
      3348 9790 3391 9759 3391 9755 3393 9751
TIME...MOT...LOC 0043Z 230DEG 50KT 3348 9753

85/NH

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
813 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

TXZ092-110145-
COOKE TX-
813 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  COOKE COUNTY

AT 813 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES WEST OF GAINESVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
45 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CALLISBURG...GAINESVILLE...
LINDSAY AND MUENSTER.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM. PEA-SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED NORTH OF MUENSTER AT 810 PM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT MONDAY
MORNING FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3395 9698 3390 9694 3367 9694 3355 9710
      3343 9748 3386 9748 3383 9739 3389 9731
      3388 9726 3391 9719 3385 9716 3383 9720
      3377 9719 3373 9715 3373 9710 3380 9710
      3382 9706 3385 9709 3385 9702
TIME...MOT...LOC 0113Z 233DEG 37KT 3365 9723

85/NH