Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
947 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

.UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHEAST OF GAINESVILLE...MINERAL WELLS...
CISCO LINE AS OF 930 PM. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE METROPLEX
BETWEEN 10 AND 11 PM...AND THROUGH PARIS AND WACO AFTER MIDNIGHT.
EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY. THUS HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF NORTH
TEXAS FROM 9 AM THROUGH 8 PM FRIDAY. WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE
LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS.

58

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...
COLD FRONT IS MOVING MUCH FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND WILL
BE ARRIVING IN THE METROPLEX BETWEEN 03-04Z AND KACT AROUND 06Z.
LOOKS LIKE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR STORMS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES AND HAVE REMOVED THE THUNDER MENTION FROM ALL
BUT KDAL. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE METROPLEX TAF
SITES BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE A CHANCE TO BUILD
SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT AND THE THREAT WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE
TAF SITES.

.../PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION/...
CONCERNS FOR THE TAFS ARE THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE METROPLEX
TAF SITES THIS EVENING AND VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY. THE DRYLINE REMAINS WEST OF THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY NOT ADVANCE EAST UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ARRIVE LATER THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOST LIKELY AFFECT THE METROPLEX BETWEEN
01-06Z. THE ENVIRONMENT OVER KACT WILL REMAIN TOO CAPPED FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THAT FAR SOUTH. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THE COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE METROPLEX BETWEEN 06-07Z AND KACT
AROUND 08Z. THE WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL INCREASE TO SUSTAINED 25-30
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 35-38 KTS. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM
300-320 DEGREES. THIS WILL RESULT IN CROSSWIND PROBLEMS ON NORTH-
SOUTH RUNWAYS ACROSS THE REGION. THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER
16/00Z OR EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011/
INTERESTING SPRING WEATHER PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES TODAY. STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. A
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA IS MOVING EASTWARD AROUND
THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE. WITH GOOD DYNAMICS IN PLACE AND MODEST
MOISTURE RETURN TO THE REGION...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH
TEXAS TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE A DRYLINE WAS MOVING INTO WESTERN COUNTIES AND
SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS IT SLOWLY ADVANCES EAST. CAP HAS BEEN WEAKENING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM. SPECIAL 18Z
SOUNDING...THOUGH STILL CAPPED...ALREADY SHOWED CAPE OVER 3000
J/KG. WITH GOOD INSTABILITY AND IMPRESSIVE SHEAR IN PLACE...THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER AREAS ROUGHLY NORTH OF I
20 THIS EVENING AS CAP BEGINS TO BREAK...WITH DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING
4-5 PM. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INCREASES THE FURTHER NORTH AND
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM YOU GO...AND A TORNADO WATCH HAS
ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE RED RIVER. THE
WATCH EXTENDS NORTHWARD THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
10PM. FEELING IS THAT FOR THE DALLAS-FT WORTH METROPLEX...THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHEST AROUND A 23-01Z TIMEFRAME. THOUGH SOUTH
OF THE CURRENT WATCH...THIS AREA STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SEE
GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS. ACTIVITY
IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND CONTINUE LATER ON TONIGHT OVER
EASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE EXITING THE CWA BY SUNRISE TOMORROW.

FOCUS WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY FROM A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO A FIRE
WEATHER THREAT AS WE HEAD INTO TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE STRONG OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE TEENS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF
THE REGION. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS THUS BEEN ISSUED FOR TOMORROW
FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHEASTERN-MOST COUNTIES...WHERE FORECAST
PRECIPITATION AND HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES ARE EXPECTED.

WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
U.S. AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  53  76  45  79  53 /  40   0   0   0  10
WACO, TX              55  79  44  81  51 /  10   0   0   0  10
PARIS, TX             54  68  41  70  47 /  70   0   0   0  10
DENTON, TX            48  74  40  78  48 /  40   0   0   0  10
MCKINNEY, TX          53  73  40  75  46 /  60   0   0   0  10
DALLAS, TX            55  75  47  77  55 /  40   0   0   0  10
TERRELL, TX           55  74  43  75  49 /  50   0   0   0  10
CORSICANA, TX         57  77  45  77  51 /  20   0   0   0  10
TEMPLE, TX            55  79  43  81  52 /  10   0   0   0  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     47  79  39  80  50 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ091-092-
100>103-115>119-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ100-115.

&&

82/58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
941 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-151200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
941 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST OF A
BONHAM TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE...WITH A SLIGHT RISK AS FAR WEST
AND SOUTH AS A BOWIE...TO FORT WORTH... TO PALESTINE LINE. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY ACROSS ALL
BUT THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS DUE TO DRY AIR AND
STRONG WINDS. THEREFORE...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 10
AM UNTIL 8 PM FRIDAY.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY
FROM 9 AM UNTIL 8 PM. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 40 MPH
WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH
TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST
OF A BOWIE...FORT WORTH...TO PALESTINE LINE.

82/JLD

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
951 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     HAIL             WHITESBORO              33.65N  96.92W
04/14/2011  E1.75 INCH       GRAYSON            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL IN WHITESBORO