Severe Thunderstorm Warning 545, NWS Fort Worth, TX

041 
WWUS54 KFWD 080032
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
632 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

TXC139-217-080115-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0545.000000T0000Z-111108T0115Z/
ELLIS TX-HILL TX-
632 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CST
FOR NORTH CENTRAL HILL AND SOUTHERN ELLIS COUNTIES...

AT 632 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
MILFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ITALY AND MAYPEARL AROUND 645 PM CST...
  BARDWELL AROUND 710 PM CST...

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...
I-35W BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 5 AND 22...
I-35E BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 18 AND 28.

LAT...LON 3226 9652 3209 9688 3207 9689 3204 9689
      3203 9707 3211 9716 3227 9710 3227 9708
      3241 9702
TIME...MOT...LOC 0032Z 229DEG 23KT 3213 9697

$$


85/NH

585 
WWUS54 KFWD 080049
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
649 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

TXC217-080059-
/O.CAN.KFWD.SV.W.0545.000000T0000Z-111108T0115Z/
HILL TX-
649 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL HILL COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CST TUESDAY MORNING 
FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3226 9652 3209 9688 3207 9689 3206 9693
      3206 9694 3226 9708 3227 9708 3231 9706
      3241 9702
TIME...MOT...LOC 0049Z 227DEG 18KT 3218 9689

$$

TXC139-080115-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0545.000000T0000Z-111108T0115Z/
ELLIS TX-
649 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CST
FOR SOUTHERN ELLIS COUNTY...

AT 649 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
ITALY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MAYPEARL AROUND 655 PM CST...
  BARDWELL AROUND 715 PM CST...

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...
I-35W BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 13 AND 22...
I-35E BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 19 AND 28.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CST TUESDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3226 9652 3209 9688 3207 9689 3206 9693
      3206 9694 3226 9708 3227 9708 3231 9706
      3241 9702
TIME...MOT...LOC 0049Z 227DEG 18KT 3218 9689

$$


85/NH

994 
WWUS54 KFWD 080112
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
712 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

TXC139-080122-
/O.EXP.KFWD.SV.W.0545.000000T0000Z-111108T0115Z/
ELLIS TX-
712 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN ELLIS COUNTY EXPIRES
AT 715 PM CST...

AT 712 PM CST THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING
WEAKENED AND WAS NO LONGER SEVERE.

RADAR INDICATED THAT HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS WERE 
STILL POSSIBLE FROM THE THUNDERSTORM. IF THE STORM 
RE-INTENSIFIES...A NEW WARNING WILL BE NEEDED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CST TUESDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3226 9652 3209 9688 3207 9689 3206 9693
      3206 9694 3226 9708 3227 9708 3231 9706
      3241 9702
TIME...MOT...LOC 0112Z 227DEG 18KT 3226 9679

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
523 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED WARM SECTOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL TX AND ARE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST
AROUND 35 MPH. ARRIVAL OF INITIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 00Z. WILL LIKELY
SEE CELLS CONTINUE TO OCCASIONALLY AFFECT AIRPORTS DURING THE
00-02Z TIMEFRAME AND WILL HAVE CB IN CLOUD GROUP RIGHT OFF THE BAT
IN 00Z FORECASTS. MAY SEE ACTIVITY START TO DIMINISH AFTER 03Z AS
SURFACE HEATING WANES AND ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE FOCUSED WEST OF
THE REGION NEAR THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND SURFACE
FRONT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AGAIN APPROACH TOMORROW MORNING
POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE AND WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF TAFS FOR NOW. SURFACE WINDS
HAVE BACKED SOME TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD REMAIN SUSTAINED
10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS THROUGH THE EVENING. MVFR CIGS SHOULD
ARRIVE BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE
UNTIL DRYING OCCURS WITH THE WIND SHIFT TOMORROW.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011/
HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THIS
PACKAGE. FEEL GFS HAS HAD A POOR HANDLE ON THE SYSTEM THE LAST 3
DAYS...AND WENT MORE IN LINE WITH THE 4KM WRF AND THE TEXAS TECH
WRF PLUS THE ECMWF. WE STILL EXPECT THE MAIN START TO THE
CONVECTION WILL BE NORTHWEST OF NORTH TEXAS...BECOMING LINEAR
DURING THE EVENING AND SWEEPING ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WEST AND ENDING LATE AFTERNOON EAST.

THE TORNADO THREAT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY LAST LONG ENOUGH
FOR A LOW THREAT TO CONTINUE AS STORMS ENTER THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES...BUT THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE LINEAR SYSTEM. AS THE
STORMS ENTER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THE SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DUE TO
EXTRA INSTABILITY PROVIDED BY AFTERNOON HEATING.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION IS OVER UNTIL
POSSIBLY SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN ANOTHER UPPER LOW
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND THEN MOVE
EASTWARD.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TUESDAY...AND DEW POINTS WILL DROP 30 DEGREES. NORTH WINDS NEAR
20 MPH WILL REMIND US THAT IT IS INDEED NOVEMBER. FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK EXPECT A SLOW WARM UP WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S BY SATURDAY.
84

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  66  73  42  60  41 /  50  80  10   0   0
WACO, TX              68  75  39  61  37 /  40  80  20   0   0
PARIS, TX             62  71  43  59  36 /  50  70  40   0   0
DENTON, TX            63  73  40  59  37 /  50  70  10   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          64  72  40  59  37 /  50  80  20   0   0
DALLAS, TX            66  73  43  61  42 /  40  80  10   0   0
TERRELL, TX           65  72  41  61  38 /  40  70  30   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         67  73  43  62  40 /  30  70  30   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            67  75  42  62  39 /  30  70  20   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     61  75  38  59  34 /  50  60  10   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

30/69

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
229 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-081200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
229 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE BEST STORM CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A
BOWIE...MINERAL WELLS...TO COMANCHE LINE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY MORNING FOR ALL OF
NORTH TEXAS. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A
BOWIE...MINERAL WELLS...TO COMANCHE LINE. SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
556 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

TXZ133-145-080030-
HILL TX-JOHNSON TX-
556 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  HILL COUNTY
  SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY

AT 555 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF HILLSBORO...MOVING NORTH AT
20 MPH. BROAD ROTATION IS NOTED WITH THIS STORM...WHICH MAY ENHANCE
THE WIND POTENTIAL.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ALVARADO...BLUM...BYNUM...
CARL'S CORNER...COVINGTON...GRANDVIEW...HILLSBORO...ITASCA...WHITNEY
AND LAKE WHITNEY STATE PARK.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3244 9726 3241 9709 3226 9708 3208 9696
      3192 9694 3175 9729 3180 9731 3184 9728
      3185 9734 3196 9739 3198 9738 3198 9740
      3214 9748 3217 9746 3217 9748
TIME...MOT...LOC 2355Z 194DEG 18KT 3216 9720

85/NH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
612 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

TXZ134-145-080045-
ELLIS TX-HILL TX-
612 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTH CENTRAL ELLIS COUNTY
  CENTRAL HILL COUNTY

AT 612 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF HILLSBORO...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 25 MPH. ROTATION IS NOTED WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM WHICH MAY
ENHANCE THE WIND POTENTIAL.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CARL'S CORNER...HILLSBORO
AND ITALY.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3207 9689 3205 9688 3192 9710 3206 9723
      3231 9690 3215 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 0012Z 232DEG 20KT 3205 9708