Severe Thunderstorm Warning 541, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1212 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2011

.AVIATION...
TSTM THREAT TIMES OUT FOR METROPLEX IN THE 0630-0830Z RANGE...AND
06Z TAFS WILL CARRY THREAT 06-09Z. OF LOW PROBABILITY...A COUPLE OF
THE MODELS DEVELOP A FEW STORMS BEHIND THIS LINE...BUT WE HAVE
SEEN NO INDICATION OF THIS TRYING TO OCCUR YET. WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH AND IF THERE IS INDICATION OF SECONDARY
INITIATION WILL HAVE TO RUN TSRA IN METROPLEX TAFS A BIT LATER.
ALL MODELS INDICATE WEAKENING AS LINE MOVES SOUTH...AND AT KACT
HAVE KEPT THE VCTS THINKING THAT STORMS WILL LIKELY TRY TO REMAIN
EAST OF THERE. STRATUS POTENTIAL FOR MORNING SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LOW AND DID NOT PUT LOW CEILINGS IN TAFS...BUT SHOULD IT OCCUR
CEILINGS WOULD PROBABLY BE HIGH MVFR THROUGH MID MORNING.  84

&&

.UPDATE...
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY IN THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST
OVERNIGHT...AND ADJUSTED WINDS TO TRY TO MATCH THE COLD POOL A
BIT BETTER. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.    84

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011/
SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTH TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGES INDICATE FORCING HAS MADE IT
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS OF 3
PM. WE EXPECT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA
THROUGH SUNSET AS LARGE SCALE LIFT INTERACTS WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLED ALONG A WEAK WARM FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH INCREASING LARGE
SCALE ASCENT...AS WELL AS LIFT ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR NORTH TEXAS WILL BE FROM
MID EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS DUE TO DECENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. STORM CHANCES SHOULD END FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE REGION AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND BRIEF RIDGING WILL SET UP
OVER TEXAS. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY DE-AMPLIFY MONDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST UNITED STATES. THIS
SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN OVER THE ROCKIES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK BRINGING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF COLORADO...NEW MEXICO AND EVEN THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. A STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
WILL SET UP OVER NORTH TEXAS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
AND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER RAIN EVENT THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR NORTH TEXAS SHOULD BE IN THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR
IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON THE WEEKEND.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  59  86  66  88  65 /   0   5   5  10  10
WACO, TX              57  84  63  86  63 /   0   5   5  10  10
PARIS, TX             57  83  58  84  62 /   5   5   5  10  10
DENTON, TX            54  84  63  87  62 /   0   5   5  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          54  82  60  87  63 /   0   5  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            60  85  65  88  65 /   0   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           56  82  62  87  64 /   0   5  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         59  85  64  87  64 /   0   5   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            58  88  62  86  61 /   0   5   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     55  84  60  87  59 /   0   5   5  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

 /

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1221 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-231200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
1221 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH A LINE OF STORMS MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT. AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND 35 EAST CAN EXPECT LARGER HAIL
SIZE DUE TO HIGHER INSTABILITY.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THROUGH 3 AM...THE SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AFTER 3 AM CDT. AFTER 3 AM CDT...THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY ENTER A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAKER
WIND SHEAR ALOFT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THROUGH 3 AM CDT ACROSS NORTHERN
NORTH TEXAS...THEN MORE LIMITED AFTER 3 AM CDT AS STORMS WEAKEN.

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