Severe Thunderstorm Warning 524, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
649 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2011

.AVIATION...
WILL KEEP VCTS IN METROPLEX UNTIL 03Z...INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL...AND WITH EVENING COOLING FEEL THREAT WILL BE OVER BY
THEN. HAVE REMOVED CB/VCTS FROM WACO COMPLETELY...NO CU FIELD
THERE AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING AS WELL.  84

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2011/
TEMPERATURES HAVE RAPIDLY WARMED UP TODAY AND AT 3
PM...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
REGION...APPROACHING 100 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE COLD FRONT
IS QUICKLY PROGRESSING THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND IS NEARING WICHITA
FALLS. THE PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT IS LIKELY MOVING INTO OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AT THIS TIME WITH THE TRUE FRONT ARRIVING IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DID NOT ADJUST POPS FOR TONIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AT 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES THIS EVENING. ANY RAIN ACTIVITY THAT DOES OCCUR
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE CWA BY DAYBREAK
WITH THE FRONT ALSO MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE
DAYBREAK.

STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING BUT WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. THERE WILL BE A SMALL WINDOW DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. AFTER DISCUSSION WITH LOCAL FIRE
OFFICIALS...WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM UNTIL 4 PM
TOMORROW. THIS WATCH COULD BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING
OVERNIGHT OR IF WIND SPEEDS ON FUTURE MODEL RUNS AND MOS GUIDANCE
DECREASE IN SPEED...A GRASS FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WOULD COVER THE
ENHANCED THREAT.

QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY PROGRESSES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S AND
60S FOR LOWS AND 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR IN THE LOWER 90S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
DEEP TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE PACIFIC WEST COAST LATE NEXT WEEK
AND SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST INTO THE PLAINS BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
TROUGH IS A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE AND COULD BRING A CHANCE
FOR RAIN TO NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...THIS PATTERN CHANGE IS BEYOND
THE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST AND THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AFTER
TONIGHT.

82/JLD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  60  82  54  84  58 /  20   5   0   0   0
WACO, TX              61  85  51  86  54 /  30  10   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             56  79  51  81  52 /  20   5   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            57  81  50  83  54 /  20   5   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          59  81  50  83  53 /  20   5   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            61  83  56  84  58 /  20   5   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           61  82  53  83  54 /  20   5   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         62  85  52  84  55 /  20   5   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            62  85  51  85  55 /  30  10   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     56  81  52  83  55 /  30   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR TXZ135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

 /

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
337 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-301115-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
337 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND DRY GRASSES
AND BRUSH WILL COMBINE TO CREATE FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS FRIDAY.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM MID FRIDAY MORNING
TO MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COMANCHE TO ATHENS LINE.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY ACROSS THE
REST OF NORTH TEXAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
454 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2011

TXZ100-101-115-116-292300-
JACK TX-PALO PINTO TX-STEPHENS TX-YOUNG TX-
454 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN JACK COUNTY
  NORTHWESTERN PALO PINTO COUNTY
  NORTHERN STEPHENS COUNTY
  SOUTHERN YOUNG COUNTY

AT 453 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN YOUNG...SOUTHWESTERN
JACK...NORTHWESTERN PALO PINTO AND NORTHERN STEPHENS COUNTY...MOVING
SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE BRECKENRIDGE...BRYSON...
GRAFORD...GRAHAM...CRYSTAL FALLS AND POSSUM KINGDOM STATE PARK.

HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3294 9910 3296 9909 3297 9896 3313 9896
      3316 9894 3319 9823 3275 9826 3268 9909
TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 359DEG 11KT 3288 9892 3298 9840

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
822 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2011

TXZ103-104-118-119-300200-
DALLAS TX-DENTON TX-TARRANT TX-COLLIN TX-
822 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN COLLIN COUNTY
  NORTHERN DALLAS COUNTY
  DENTON COUNTY
  NORTHERN TARRANT COUNTY

AT 823 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
MCKINNEY TO 10 MILES NORTH OF LAKE LEWISVILLE TO 12 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF DENTON...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE
STORMS.

LAT...LON 3318 9651 3285 9652 3280 9699 3284 9742
      3299 9742 3300 9739 3318 9739 3333 9694
TIME...MOT...LOC 0123Z 002DEG 16KT 3312 9661 3324 9695
          3312 9731

85/NH

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