Severe Thunderstorm Warning 501, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
643 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

.AVIATION...642 PM
THERE IS A GAP IN THE CONVECTIVE LINE UPSTREAM FROM THE
METROPLEX. LATEST HRRR...RUC...NAM...AND GFS STILL PROG CONVECTION
AT METROPLEX TAF SITES AND WILL CONTINUE WITH TSRA IN TAFS
EXPECTING LINE TO FILL IN SOME AS IT APPROACHES. MODELS REMAIN IN
AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE NO CONVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...SO
BY LATE EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF SITES. DRY AIR
BEHIND FRONT WILL PREVENT ANY STRATUS FORMATION IN THE MORNING.

AT WACO...TIMING OF STORMS STILL SUBJECT TO CHANGE. TAF TIMING IS
BASED ON LIFTING/FORCING FROM THE FRONT...BUT ISOLATED STORMS IN
WARM SECTOR MAY STILL AFFECT THE AREA EARLIER IN THE EVENING.
COVERAGE OF ISOLATED STORMS IN WARM SECTOR IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAF AT THIS TIME. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS MAY STILL OCCUR NEAR
FROPA...BUT THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AND I HAVE VFR IN THE
TAF FOR TOMORROW. 84

&&

.UPDATE...557 PM
BRIEF UPDATE TO HOURLY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

WEAK CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY...BETWEEN
GAINESVILLE AND GRAHAM. MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR
SHERMAN/DENISON AND IN COMANCHE COUNTY...THOUGH BETTER INSTABILITY
IS IN PLACE IN BETWEEN THESE AREAS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE
REACHED THE MID 90S...WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...FROM HOOD/JOHNSON THROUGH THE METROPLEX TO DENTON/COLLIN.
ALTHOUGH CU IS RATHER BENIGN AT THE MOMENT...RAPID DEVELOPMENT
COULD OCCUR WITHIN THIS AREA OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY THROUGH
SUNSET...RESULTING IN A MORE SOLID PREFRONTAL LINE OF CONVECTION.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011/
EXPECTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAK COLD FRONT
WAS JUST BEGINNING TO ENTER MONTAGUE AND YOUNG COUNTIES AND SHOULD
BE A FOCUS FOR SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT BY 4 PM.
OTHER THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS STRONG HEATING HAS MOSTLY ERODED A WEAK CAP. SOME
OF THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE WITH A LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. SEE THE AWUFWD PRODUCT ISSUED AT 213 PM
CDT FOR A TECHNICAL DISCUSSION OF FACTORS THAT WILL AFFECT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. POPS IN
MANY AREAS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 50 TO 60 PERCENT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT BRINGS DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR TO THE AREA AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE CLEARS THE
SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S IN MOST AREAS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH FROM OKLAHOMA. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE
MUCH LESS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...BUT PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BETTER
UPPER LEVEL FORCING. WILL LIMIT POPS TO NO HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT
FOR THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SYSTEM.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY - SUNDAY PERIOD WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.                  /09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  68  86  64  88  66 /  50  10   0   0   5
WACO, TX              67  89  61  88  61 /  50  20   0   0   5
PARIS, TX             66  85  60  86  61 /  60   5   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            63  86  57  89  60 /  50   5   0   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          63  86  56  87  59 /  60  10   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX            70  86  65  89  67 /  50  10   0   0   5
TERRELL, TX           67  85  61  87  63 /  60  20   0   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         68  87  63  87  64 /  60  20   0   0   5
TEMPLE, TX            68  89  61  89  61 /  50  20   0   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     63  86  56  89  60 /  50   5   0   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
304 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-191230-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
304 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH TONIGHT. FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL OCCUR WITH THE STORMS. IN
ADDITION...THE SEVERE THREAT INCLUDES DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY...MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHEAST.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
822 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     TSTM WND GST     EMBLEM                  33.25N  95.77W
09/18/2011  E60 MPH          HOPKINS            TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH REPORTED IN EMBLEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
824 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0602 PM     TSTM WND DMG     AMBROSE                 33.68N  96.38W
09/18/2011                   GRAYSON            TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES DOWN IN AMBROSE. KNOCKED OUT POWER TO TOWN.