Severe Thunderstorm Warning 494, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
250 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

.DISCUSSION...
EXPECTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAK COLD FRONT
WAS JUST BEGINNING TO ENTER MONTAGUE AND YOUNG COUNTIES AND SHOULD
BE A FOCUS FOR SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT BY 4 PM.
OTHER THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS STRONG HEATING HAS MOSTLY ERODED A WEAK CAP. SOME
OF THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE WITH A LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. SEE THE AWUFWD PRODUCT ISSUED AT 213 PM
CDT FOR A TECHNICAL DISCUSSION OF FACTORS THAT WILL AFFECT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. POPS IN
MANY AREAS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 50 TO 60 PERCENT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT BRINGS DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR TO THE AREA AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE CLEARS THE
SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S IN MOST AREAS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH FROM OKLAHOMA. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE
MUCH LESS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...BUT PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BETTER
UPPER LEVEL FORCING. WILL LIMIT POPS TO NO HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT
FOR THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SYSTEM.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY - SUNDAY PERIOD WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.                  /09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  68  86  64  88  66 /  50  10   0   0   5
WACO, TX              67  89  61  88  61 /  50  20   0   0   5
PARIS, TX             66  85  60  86  61 /  60   5   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            63  86  57  89  60 /  50   5   0   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          63  86  56  87  59 /  60  10   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX            70  86  65  89  67 /  50  10   0   0   5
TERRELL, TX           67  85  61  87  63 /  60  20   0   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         68  87  63  87  64 /  60  20   0   0   5
TEMPLE, TX            68  89  61  89  61 /  50  20   0   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     63  86  56  89  60 /  50   5   0   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
304 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-191230-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
304 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH TONIGHT. FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL OCCUR WITH THE STORMS. IN
ADDITION...THE SEVERE THREAT INCLUDES DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY...MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHEAST.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
337 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

TXZ161-182100-
LIMESTONE TX-
337 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN LIMESTONE COUNTY

AT 337 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GROESBECK...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 5 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3140 9661 3169 9643 3142 9624 3138 9631
      3136 9632 3130 9644
TIME...MOT...LOC 2037Z 216DEG 7KT 3142 9646

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
512 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

TXZ162-182245-
LEON TX-
512 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHERN LEON COUNTY

AT 512 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 21 MILES NORTH OF MADISONVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 10 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CENTERVILLE.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
SUNDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3113 9577 3109 9576 3108 9598 3107 9601
      3107 9603 3126 9615 3143 9583 3122 9572
      3121 9574 3116 9572
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 325DEG 7KT 3124 9602