Severe Thunderstorm Warning 479, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
609 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2011

.AVIATION...
THE AVIATION FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH WINDS BELOW 10
KTS...FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS...AND A VERY SMALL
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS.

THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VARY FROM A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION IN THE OVERNIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AOB 10 KTS FOR THE MOST
PART. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE
REGION MAY MOVE OVER THE AIRPORTS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
TOMORROW...OTHERWISE EXPECT CUMULUS CLOUDS BETWEEN 050-080. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
AFFECTING THE AIRPORTS AND THEREFORE THE TAF DOES NOT MENTION
THUNDER. HOWEVER...IF A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPS NEAR OR AT AN
AIRPORT IT WILL PRODUCE LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA MAY ALSO
RESULT IN BRIEF WIND SHIFTS THAT SHOULD NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON AIRPORT OPERATIONS.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2011/
VIS SATELLITE SHOWS ENHANCED CUMULUS FIELD OUT AHEAD OF THIS
MORNINGS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS...GENERALLY FROM BOWIE TO
STEPHENVILLE...WACO AND PALESTINE. HAVE PLACED 20 POPS ALONG THIS
LINE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...WILL CARRY 10 POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE ADDED
10 POPS TO THE NORTHEAST FOR LATE TONIGHT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA OR WESTERN ARKANSAS ACTIVITY SLIDING INTO THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES BEFORE DAYBREAK.

ALTHOUGH OUR ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED THROUGH
THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE FEW SURFACE BOUNDARIES OR OTHER FEATURES
TO FOCUS ON FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
DRIFTING INTO THE CWA MAY BE ALL THAT/S AVAILABLE FOR AFTERNOON
CONVERGENCE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FOR THIS REASON...WE/LL
GENERALLY FOCUS ON AREAS EAST OF I-35/45 WHERE PVA IS AVAILABLE
AND UPPER DIVERGENCE EXISTS. DIV-Q AND Q-VECTORS WERE OF LITTLE
HELP IN THIS MATTER. ALSO...WILL CARRY 10 POPS JUST WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE METROPLEX ON THURSDAY.

GOING INTO AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WE/VE BEEN WATCHING THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF TUTT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND LOOK FORWARD TO
IT RETROGRADING TOWARD TEXAS BY THIS WEEKEND. CURRENT EXPECTATION
IS FOR IT TO REACH THE TEXAS COAST SATURDAY...AND THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND INTO WEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL OF SEA BREEZE CONVECTION FORMING AND MOVING
NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ALSO...THE DEEPENED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING SOME INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

AREA TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE UNTIL THE TUTT ARRIVES AND
MOVES TO OUR WEST. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FIRST OF
NEXT WEEK DUE TO THIS PROCESS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT AS
THE DOMINANT UPPER HIGH TO OUR WEST SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. 75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  80 101  79 100  78 /  10   5   5  10  10
WACO, TX              77 101  77 103  76 /  20   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             75  99  75  98  75 /  10  10  10  20  20
DENTON, TX            77 101  75 100  75 /  10   5   5  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          76  99  75  98  74 /  10   5   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            81 101  80 100  78 /  10   5   5  10  20
TERRELL, TX           76  99  75 100  75 /  10  10  10  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         76  99  76 101  75 /  20  10  10  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            75  98  74 101  73 /  10   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     76 103  75 104  75 /  20   5   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

82/58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
315 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-061130-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
315 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHTNING AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS ARE
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARD...BUT A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ISOLATED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED FOR STRONGER STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
615 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2011

TXZ148-052345-
ANDERSON TX-
615 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  ANDERSON COUNTY

AT 615 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF PALESTINE...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

PALESTINE IS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ARE LIKELY.

LAT...LON 3160 9527 3150 9573 3155 9576 3156 9572
      3163 9572 3165 9575 3160 9577 3169 9578
      3169 9587 3175 9587 3179 9599 3187 9597
      3188 9603 3191 9600 3195 9603 3195 9606
      3200 9605 3209 9543 3185 9544 3161 9526
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 023DEG 6KT 3189 9553

25

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