Severe Thunderstorm Warning 374, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
323 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION HAS BEGUN ON THE DRYLINE. AT 3 PM...THE
DRYLINE WAS LOCATED NEAR A LINE FROM FREDERICK OK TO EAST OF
ABILENE TO SONORA. THE OVERALL THINKING REGARDING THE SEVERE
WEATHER EPISODE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT HAS NOT CHANGED AND
WILL NOT DISCUSS MUCH ABOUT IT IN THIS UPDATE. A SIGNIFICANT EVENT
WILL UNFOLD WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES...AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAINING THE HAZARDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THE DRYLINE BUT MAY
MERGE INTO A SQUALL LINE/MCS LATER TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST AREA WEATHER UPDATE /AWUFWD/...WATCHES...AND SPC PRODUCTS
FOR THE UPDATED TRENDS AND MESOANALYSIS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES IS
EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF INTO A LOW TONIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN IN THE
PLAINS TOMORROW BEFORE EJECTING EAST LATE TOMORROW. BECAUSE OF
THIS...THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL ALSO SLOWLY ADVANCE THROUGH THE
PLAINS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE DRYLINE WILL PUSH INTO NORTH
TEXAS TONIGHT BUT WILL STALL IN RESPONSE TO THE SLOW MOVING STORM
SYSTEM. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE TOMORROW
AND BOTH WILL ADVANCE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY TOMORROW EVENING.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE/FRONT
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A FEW SEVERE
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL ESSENTIALLY CUT OFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S AND 70S WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE STILL INFLUENCING NORTH TEXAS WEATHER AND LACK OF ANY
OTHER FORCING...WILL MAINTAIN LESS THAN 20 POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH AND THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION.

AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL QUICKLY REBOUND AND WARM INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES OF
THE CWA.

82/JLD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  64  93  62  83  67 /  60  10   5   0   5
WACO, TX              74  95  62  87  67 /  30  20  20   0   5
PARIS, TX             70  88  58  77  61 /  50  10  10   0   5
DENTON, TX            63  88  60  82  62 /  60  10   5   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          64  88  59  81  62 /  60  10   5   0   5
DALLAS, TX            66  91  62  83  68 /  60  10  10   0   5
TERRELL, TX           68  92  59  82  64 /  50  10  10   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         72  92  61  84  66 /  30  20  20   0   5
TEMPLE, TX            75  95  61  87  66 /  20  20  20   0   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     60  92  59  85  65 /  50  10   5   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

05/82

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
310 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-251200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
310 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...ESPECIALLY THOSE AREAS NORTH OF A HAMILTON...
HILLSBORO...CANTON LINE.

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
DRYLINE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 LATE TODAY...THEN SPREAD EAST DURING
THE EVENING HOURS AND BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA. THREATS INCLUDE VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS TO
70 MPH AND TORNADOES. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOUTHEAST OF A LAMPASAS...TO WACO...TO
CANTON LINE. A FEW STORMS MAY REACH STRONG TO SEVERE LIMITS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY ACROSS A GOOD PART OF NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST HALF.

05/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
434 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HAIL             STRAWN                  32.55N  98.50W
05/24/2011  E1.00 INCH       PALO PINTO         TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
509 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0506 PM     HAIL             1 S MINERAL WELLS       32.79N  98.10W
05/24/2011  M2.75 INCH       PALO PINTO         TX   AMATEUR RADIO