Severe Thunderstorm Warning 331, NWS Fort Worth, TX

711 
WWUS54 KFWD 220243
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
943 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

TXC099-281-220330-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0331.000000T0000Z-110522T0330Z/
LAMPASAS TX-CORYELL TX-
943 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM CDT
FOR CORYELL AND LAMPASAS COUNTIES...

AT 942 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO
GOLF BALL SIZE.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF
LOMETA...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  EVANT AROUND 950 PM CDT...

LAT...LON 3130 9844 3143 9825 3157 9798 3170 9771
      3170 9768 3147 9752 3118 9800 3107 9836
TIME...MOT...LOC 0242Z 278DEG 30KT 3128 9827

$$

173 
WWUS54 KFWD 220300
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1000 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

TXC099-281-220330-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0331.000000T0000Z-110522T0330Z/
LAMPASAS TX-CORYELL TX-
1000 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM CDT
FOR WEST CENTRAL CORYELL AND LAMPASAS COUNTIES...

AT 1000 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO
GOLF BALL SIZE.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL LAMPASAS
COUNTY...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.


LAT...LON 3130 9844 3143 9825 3147 9817 3138 9767
      3118 9800 3109 9828
TIME...MOT...LOC 0300Z 283DEG 21KT 3125 9819

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
634 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS BEEN FOCUSED SOUTH OF TARRANT-DALLAS COUNTY
TERMINALS. KACT A DIFFERENT STORY AS SEVERE STORMS HAVE BEEN
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. -RA AND
ASSOCIATED COOLING ALREADY OCCURRING HERE AND COULD BE HELPING TO
STABILIZE ATMOSPHERE SOME...BUT WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR TS
THROUGH 02Z WITH ANTICIPATION OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FURTHER
WEST TO HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT AIRPORT.

IFR CONDS LOOK TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME
DO NOT EXPECT RECURRENCE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO MVFR MID-LATE MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERING OUT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INCLUDED CB FOR DFW IN EXTENDED TAF
PERIOD BASED ON EXPECTED DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW EVENING.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011/

THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...TSTM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE NEAR HAMILTON/MILLS COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON. CUMULUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE FURTHER
NORTH TOWARDS THE METROPLEX WHICH INDICATES THAT EARLIER
ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT THE PLACEMENT OF DEEPER GULF MOISTURE WERE
WRONG. LARGE SCALE SUPPORT IS STILL LACKING...AND WEAK LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE MAY CONTINUE TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR
TSTM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME ANY LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE SEEMS TO BE HAVING LITTLE EFFECT ON CONVECTIVE
INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE...SO WOULD EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HRS. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE DRYLINE THROUGH 9
PM CDT. IF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NORTH ON THE DRYLINE
THE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED IN AERIAL COVERAGE WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE SUBTROPICAL JET ALOFT COMBINED WITH A
VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE MODE
THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLS TO START OFF AND
MAY GROW UPSCALE INTO A LINEAR MCS ASSUMING CONVECTION CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP ALONG MUCH THE DRYLINE ALL AFTERNOON. VERY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELL WILL HAVE
AN ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT THROUGH SUNSET.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AS LARGE
SCALE FORCING WILL NOT SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG HEATING. A NOTABLE EXCEPTION IS ANY WELL
ORGANIZED LINEAR MCS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO THRIVE AS THE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
AFTER SUNSET WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN A COLD POOL DRIVEN CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EAST OVER THE DRYLINE IN NORTH CENTRAL TX
DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS. A MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING STRONG CONVECTION IN NORTH CENTRAL TX
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS
QUICKLY AFTER INITIATION AND THEN PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH
TX LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HRS. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MCS.

THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...MADE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST BEYOND TOMORROW. EXPECT THAT ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW FROM
SUNDAY NIGHTS CONVECTION WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE BROAD BRUSHED 20
POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY BE ACTIVE
ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH SUPPORTIVE WIND SHEAR PROFILES FOR
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE TSTMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST THRU THE AREA...MAINTAINED POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR NOW BASED ON THE EXPECTED
POSITION OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE END OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY FOR NOW AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER NORTH TX. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD SCOUR DEEPER GULF MOISTURE OUT OF THE REGION
MAKING AFTERNOON ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY LESS LIKELY.

CAVANAUGH

 &&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  90  69  89  73 /  20  30  50  20  10
WACO, TX              74  91  73  90  74 /  30  10  30  20  10
PARIS, TX             71  86  69  86  70 /  30  10  50  20  10
DENTON, TX            72  90  68  87  70 /  20  30  50  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          71  88  68  86  71 /  20  20  50  20  10
DALLAS, TX            74  90  70  89  73 /  20  20  50  20  10
TERRELL, TX           73  88  71  88  72 /  30  10  50  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         73  90  72  89  72 /  30  10  30  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            74  90  72  89  73 /  30  10  20  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     69  91  68  89  67 /  10  40  60  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

30/58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
339 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-221200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
339 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A BOWIE TO MINERAL
WELLS AND COMANCHE LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SOME OF
THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE AND THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ARE
THE MAIN THREATS BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ON SUNDAY...A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT A LARGE
PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS. THE HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF NORTH TEXAS. SEVERE WEATHER CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.

LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS VARYING PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.

82/JLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
645 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             6 N COPPERAS COVE       31.22N  97.92W
05/21/2011  E0.88 INCH       CORYELL            TX   AMATEUR RADIO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
747 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0747 PM     HAIL             GATESVILLE              31.43N  97.75W
05/21/2011  E0.75 INCH       CORYELL            TX   AMATEUR RADIO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
753 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0751 PM     HAIL             GATESVILLE              31.43N  97.75W
05/21/2011  E1.75 INCH       CORYELL            TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
756 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     HAIL             9 NE COPPERAS COVE      31.22N  97.81W
05/21/2011  E2.50 INCH       CORYELL            TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
856 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             CARADAN                 31.55N  98.48W
05/21/2011  E1.75 INCH       MILLS              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
858 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

TXZ142-143-220230-
HAMILTON TX-MILLS TX-
858 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  HAMILTON COUNTY
  MILLS COUNTY

AT 857 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR GOLDTHWAITE TO
HAMILTON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE GOLDTHWAITE AND HAMILTON.

NICKEL-SIZED HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3162 9877 3169 9876 3172 9849 3168 9846
      3183 9818 3185 9816 3191 9821 3201 9802
      3168 9777 3123 9856 3127 9863 3131 9860
      3131 9865 3136 9866 3135 9871 3143 9873
      3137 9877 3141 9877 3144 9896 3147 9900
TIME...MOT...LOC 0157Z 254DEG 20KT 3157 9826

DUNN