Severe Thunderstorm Warning 327, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
328 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...TSTM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE NEAR HAMILTON/MILLS COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON. CUMULUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE FURTHER
NORTH TOWARDS THE METROPLEX WHICH INDICATES THAT EARLIER
ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT THE PLACEMENT OF DEEPER GULF MOISTURE WERE
WRONG. LARGE SCALE SUPPORT IS STILL LACKING...AND WEAK LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE MAY CONTINUE TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR
TSTM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME ANY LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE SEEMS TO BE HAVING LITTLE EFFECT ON CONVECTIVE
INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE...SO WOULD EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HRS. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE DRYLINE THROUGH 9
PM CDT. IF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NORTH ON THE DRYLINE
THE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED IN AERIAL COVERAGE WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE SUBTROPICAL JET ALOFT COMBINED WITH A
VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE MODE
THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLS TO START OFF AND
MAY GROW UPSCALE INTO A LINEAR MCS ASSUMING CONVECTION CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP ALONG MUCH THE DRYLINE ALL AFTERNOON. VERY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELL WILL HAVE
AN ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT THROUGH SUNSET.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AS LARGE
SCALE FORCING WILL NOT SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG HEATING. A NOTABLE EXCEPTION IS ANY WELL
ORGANIZED LINEAR MCS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO THRIVE AS THE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
AFTER SUNSET WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN A COLD POOL DRIVEN CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EAST OVER THE DRYLINE IN NORTH CENTRAL TX
DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS. A MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING STRONG CONVECTION IN NORTH CENTRAL TX
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS
QUICKLY AFTER INITIATION AND THEN PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH
TX LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HRS. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MCS.

THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...MADE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST BEYOND TOMORROW. EXPECT THAT ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW FROM
SUNDAY NIGHTS CONVECTION WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE BROAD BRUSHED 20
POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY BE ACTIVE
ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH SUPPORTIVE WIND SHEAR PROFILES FOR
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE TSTMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST THRU THE AREA...MAINTAINED POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR NOW BASED ON THE EXPECTED
POSITION OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE END OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY FOR NOW AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER NORTH TX. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD SCOUR DEEPER GULF MOISTURE OUT OF THE REGION
MAKING AFTERNOON ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY LESS LIKELY.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  90  69  89  73 /  20  30  50  20  10
WACO, TX              74  91  73  90  74 /  30  10  30  20  10
PARIS, TX             71  86  69  86  70 /  30  10  50  20  10
DENTON, TX            72  90  68  87  70 /  20  30  50  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          71  88  68  86  71 /  20  20  50  20  10
DALLAS, TX            74  90  70  89  73 /  20  20  50  20  10
TERRELL, TX           73  88  71  88  72 /  30  10  50  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         73  90  72  89  72 /  30  10  30  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            74  90  72  89  73 /  30  10  20  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     69  91  68  89  67 /  10  40  60  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

 /

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
339 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-221200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
339 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A BOWIE TO MINERAL
WELLS AND COMANCHE LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SOME OF
THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE AND THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ARE
THE MAIN THREATS BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ON SUNDAY...A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT A LARGE
PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS. THE HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF NORTH TEXAS. SEVERE WEATHER CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.

LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS VARYING PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.

82/JLD

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