Severe Thunderstorm Warning 277, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1256 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO THE METROPLEX.
THE MAIN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL APPROACH THE
WESTERN TAF SITES...KAFW AND KFTW...BETWEEN 19-1930Z...KDFW AROUND
20Z...AND KDAL BY 21Z. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT KACT 21-22Z.
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OVER
40 KNOTS. MOST OF THE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE METROPLEX TAF
SITES BY 23Z... AND WACO AROUND 00Z. LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTH
TONIGHT... BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE WACO AREA BY 05Z...AND
INTO THE METROPLEX BY 06Z. THESE CEILINGS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH
MOST OF THURSDAY MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER
17-18Z. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN THE METROPLEX AND WACO...BUT
CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH NOT TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

58

&&

.UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT ALONG AND
WEST OF A LINE FROM LAMPASAS...TO HILLSBORO...TO BONHAM.

DRYLINE NOW EXTENDS THROUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF AMA/LUB/MAF COUNTY
WARNING AREAS. A SECONDARY BOUNDARY IN ADVANCE OF THE DRYLINE IS
PUSHING THROUGH SJT CWA...ALONG WHICH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED. DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE LINE SHOULD EFFECTIVELY BULGE
THE DRYLINE EASTWARD TO NEAR WESTERN EDGE OF FWD CWA BY MID
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE SEVERE CONVECTION...50-KT JET AT 850MB IS
FEEDING HIGH THETA-E AIR ABOVE THE CAP...BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. AS A RESULT...NON-SEVERE ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED IN AREAS WEST OF I-35. PERSISTENT STRATUS IS LIMITING
SURFACE HEATING...AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT IS TOO FAR REMOVED TO
EFFECTIVELY LIFT/ERODE SIZABLE CIN THIS EARLY IN THE DAY.
NONETHELESS...THE CONVECTION SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO INGEST
SURFACE PARCELS DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING AMPLE BOUNDARY
LAYER INSTABILITY TO BE REALIZED. THE WATCH IMPLIES SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
THREATS...BUT THE TORNADO THREAT REMAINS NON-ZERO.

HAVE REDUCED HIGH TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY...OWING TO CLOUD
COVER AND ANTICIPATED PRECIPITATION. POPS HAVE ALSO BEEN INCREASED
TO LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF CWA. UPDATED PRODUCTS ARE BEING SENT NOW.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2011/
NORTH TEXAS STILL ON TRACK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS
DRY LINE PUSHES INTO WESTERN COUNTIES AND UPPER DISTURBANCE
ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW. SEVERE WEATHER IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...BUT TORNADOES ARE A LOW PROBABILITY AS WELL. TORNADO
PARAMETERS APPEAR MUCH BETTER IN OKLAHOMA/KANSAS CLOSER TO THE
UPPER LOW. STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS COLD
FRONT PUSHES INTO NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF AREA
THURSDAY...STALLS FOR A WHILE...THEN PUSHES ON THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR WEEKEND AS ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TOO DRY TO
SUPPORT PRECIP. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY...AND GUIDANCE HAS COOLED DOWN THE WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY QUITE A BIT. MY HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE GUIDANCE
SINCE THIS COOL DOWN MAY BE OVERDONE RIGHT NOW...BUT THEY ARE
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. 84

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  80  69  86  63  78 /  70  30  20  20   5
WACO, TX              84  72  91  64  84 /  50  30  30  20   5
PARIS, TX             82  67  82  62  76 /  60  40  30  20  10
DENTON, TX            79  66  86  59  75 /  70  30  20  20   5
MCKINNEY, TX          80  66  85  62  76 /  70  30  20  20   5
DALLAS, TX            81  70  88  63  79 /  70  30  20  20   5
TERRELL, TX           83  71  87  64  80 /  60  40  20  20   5
CORSICANA, TX         88  72  90  66  84 /  50  40  30  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            84  73  91  65  86 /  50  30  30  30  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     84  63  89  59  78 /  70  30  10  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

58/25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
335 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-121000-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
335 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS...
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
210 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W CHICO               33.30N  97.85W
05/11/2011                   WISE               TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MOBILE HOME BLOWN OFF FOUNDATION; OUT BUILDINGS BLOWN
            INTO TREES; INTERSECTION OF CR 1655 AND FM 1810

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
228 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     HAIL             1 N KELLER              32.94N  97.25W
05/11/2011  E1.00 INCH       TARRANT            TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            INTERSECTION OF ROANOKE AND KNOX IN NORTH KELLER

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