Severe Thunderstorm Warning 215, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
906 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

.UPDATE...
VERY DIFFICULT TRENDS TO ASSESS. BEST SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
REMAINS SOUTH NEAR/NORTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW THAT'S SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST FROM THE COLORADO RIVER NOW OVER TO TEMPLE/KILLEEN AS OF 9 PM
CDT. DEW POINTS 70F OR GREATER REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THIS LOW WITH
A BACKDOOR WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY SETTLED NORTH OF THE LOW FROM
HAMILTON...TO WACO/LAKE WHITNEY AREA...TO GREENVILLE/KAUFMAN AREA
TO NEAR BONHAM. SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALOFT NOW TRACKING FROM
NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE AND ACROSS NW OK/SW KS BORDER AND SHOULD
CONTINUE EAST ACROSS N-CENTRAL OK THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL FOLLOW
MORE REALISTIC RAPID REFRESH RUC/HRRR MODEL WITH PULL NORTHEAST
ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 4 AM...WHICH SHOULD
PULL COLD FRONT GRADUALLY THROUGH THE I-35 CORRIDOR...WITH
LINGERING ACTIVITY ACROSS EAST/NORTHEAST COUNTIES WITH D/FW METRO
BEING ON FAR WESTERN FRINGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. OF COURSE...CONFIDENCE
ONLY MARGINAL EVEN WITH THE NAM SHOWING A SIMILAR TREND.

WITH ALL SAID ABOVE...HAD CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE AREAS JUST NORTH-
WEST OF D/FW FROM THE PDS TORNADO WATCH...AS THOSE AREAS PER WIND
DIRECTION AND DEW POINTS JUST DON'T LOOK CONDUCIVE FOR TORNADIC
STORMS AS SEEN JUST SOUTH-EAST OF D/FW EARLIER THIS EVENING.

UPDATES SENT.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PASSED VERY NEAR ACT DURING THE PAST
HOUR...LOOKS LIKE POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR SOME REDEVELOPMENT
THERE JUST E OF DRYLINE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LEFT VCTS IN
TAFS THERE AND ALL BUT AFW FOR THE EVENING...THOUGH THREAT IS
LOOKING LESS AND LESS FOR TARRANT COUNTY TERMINALS. ALSO KEPT
TEMPO GROUPS IN AT DALLAS LOVE AS IT IS THE EASTERN-MOST SITE AND
IS GETTING CLOSE CALLS FROM ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

WINDS ARE DIFFICULT GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW. ITS
EXACT MOVEMENT WILL DETERMINE VELOCITIES AT METROPLEX SITES. RIGHT
NOW HAVE GONE WITH PERSISTENT N-NE WINDS WITH THE THINKING BEING
THAT THE LOW WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF TARRANT/DALLAS
COUNTIES...WITH A SWITCH-AROUND TO THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. MAIN
FRONTAL PUSH SHOULD ARRIVE TOMORROW MORNING AND WILL BRING GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AREAWIDE.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011/
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WITH
ALL ELEMENTS IN PLACE FOR LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AND EAST. CAPE VALUES IN WARM SECTOR ARE
OVER 4000 JOULES...AND 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES NEAR FRONT ARE
ABOVE 300. AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS TODAY...WARM FRONT SHOULD
RETREAT NORTHWARD AND DRY LINE SHOULD PUSH EAST. TRIPLE POINT
INITIALLY NEAR BOSQUE COUNTY SHOULD PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE
METROPLEX. BEST SPOT FOR INITIAL CONVECTION IS NEAR TRIPLE POINT
SOUTH OF METROPLEX. STORM MOTION IS NORTHEAST...WITH RIGHT MOVING
SUPERCELLS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST. THIS WOULD KEEP THEM IN THE
WARM SECTOR AND ALLOW FOR LONG TRACK TORNADOES AND/OR WIDESPREAD
HAIL.

BY EARLY MORNING COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA AND PRECIP
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST BY SUNRISE...ENDING SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. NO CHANGES FOR REST OF THE WEEK WITH NEXT SYSTEM
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.   84

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  61  71  53  78  59 /  40   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              63  79  52  82  58 /  50   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             61  68  48  75  54 /  60  20   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            57  70  48  78  58 /  30   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          60  70  49  78  56 /  50  10   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            63  72  53  77  60 /  40   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           65  72  51  77  57 /  60  10   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         67  78  54  78  58 /  70   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            63  81  53  82  57 /  30   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     55  73  50  78  58 /  20   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

30/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
919 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-271200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
919 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT MAINLY EAST
OF A SHERMAN...DALLAS...WACO...HEARNE LINE OVERNIGHT. AREAS
IMMEDIATELY TO THE WEST TOWARD A BOWIE...FORT WORTH... CLIFTON
LINE OVERNIGHT WILL SEE LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS AS
THE MAIN THREATS.

MANY UNCERTAINTIES EXIST REGARDING THE TRACK OF A SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN NORTH TEXAS. ANYWHERE ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW
TRACK OVERNIGHT WILL SEE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF NORTH TEXAS.

A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35.

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