Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
343 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS...WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND EXIT THE REGION BY MID
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES EARLY IN THE EVENING. A FEW
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
MOST OF THE RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC SECTIONS INDICATE SOME LIFT OVER THE
FRONTAL SURFACE WITH LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING OVER NORTH TEXAS
SUNDAY MORNING. LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED BY A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE.
THEREFORE...HAVE DECIDED TO INTRODUCE SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY
AND MENTION THUNDER SINCE FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
PROGGED. PRECIP CHANCES WILL END SUNDAY EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE
EXITS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST.

DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN
THE WEST. INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE RED RIVER. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND PRECIP CHANCES
WILL END TEMPORARILY.

THE GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF SOLUTION CONTINUES TO BE MUCH WEAKER AND
DRIER. FOR NOW...WILL COMPROMISE AND KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN THE
FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE PAST
WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 40S AND LOWER 50S WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 30S EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHWEST ZONES TONIGHT...SUNDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  43  60  42  64  53 /   0  20   5   5  20
WACO, TX              48  67  44  67  57 /  10  20   5   5  20
PARIS, TX             41  55  39  59  42 /  10  20  10   5  30
DENTON, TX            40  59  39  63  51 /   0  20   5   5  30
MCKINNEY, TX          41  58  36  60  48 /   0  20   5   5  30
DALLAS, TX            44  61  41  64  51 /   5  20   5   5  20
TERRELL, TX           44  60  40  59  50 /  10  20  10   5  20
CORSICANA, TX         47  64  42  65  53 /  10  20  10   5  20
TEMPLE, TX            50  72  45  70  58 /  20  20   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     41  65  38  63  52 /   0  10   5   5  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

80/79

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
311 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-271230-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
311 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OF NORTH TEXAS. THIS AREA IS
ROUGHLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ATHENS TO KILLEEN. A FEW STORMS
MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY FOR AREAS
GENERALLY EAST OF I-35.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
702 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

TXZ148-270030-
ANDERSON TX-
702 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN ANDERSON COUNTY

AT 702 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES NORTH OF PALESTINE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
35 MPH.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3160 9527 3186 9571 3206 9566 3204 9542
      3201 9542 3199 9544 3195 9544 3193 9542
      3185 9544 3182 9540 3177 9539 3172 9531
TIME...MOT...LOC 0002Z 301DEG 29KT 3189 9559

82/JLD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
753 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

TXZ160-270130-
FALLS TX-
753 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN FALLS COUNTY

AT 753 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF TEMPLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 15 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE LOTT.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3123 9723 3124 9725 3128 9727 3131 9723
      3137 9712 3122 9693 3104 9711
TIME...MOT...LOC 0053Z 299DEG 14KT 3123 9723

82/JLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
816 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0811 PM     HAIL             3 SE DOTT               31.24N  97.08W
03/26/2011  M1.00 INCH       FALLS              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL COVERING THE ROAD 3 MILES SE OF DOTT,
            TX.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
835 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     HAIL             LOTT                    31.22N  97.03W
03/26/2011  E0.75 INCH       FALLS              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN LOTT