Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
546 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2011

.UPDATE...
AN UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT TO REMOVE GRAYSON AND COLLIN COUNTIES FROM
THE TORNADO WATCH 43. THE DRY LINE EXTENDS SOUTHEAST OF A HONEY
GROVE... HEATH....HUTCHINS LINE AS OF 545 PM. WE WILL LIKELY BE
ABLE TO REMOVE FANNIN AND DALLAS COUNTIES DURING THE NEXT HOUR.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
A DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES
THIS EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION. THE DRYLINE WILL GO THROUGH WACO BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z.
THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE
DRYLINE THROUGH THE EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT
SOME HIGH MVFR OR LOW VFR CLOUDS COULD MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE DECIDED TO
LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE AS MODELS INDICATE THE
BEST CONCENTRATION OF MOISTURE WILL BE NEAR AND NORTH OF THE RED RIVER.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL PREVAIL AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 13 AND 17 KNOTS ALONG WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS. WACO WILL INITIALLY START OUT WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS...BUT THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE DRYLINE.

79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2011/
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING AS A DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE GENERALLY
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY AND UPPER DYNAMICS WILL BE. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME ROTATING STORMS WITH SOME TORNADO
POTENTIAL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS DRIER AND MORE SUBSIDENT AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND A PASSING SHORT WAVE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING DRIER AND MUCH
COOLER AIR.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE RAIN-FREE
WITH A WARMING TREND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL NOT RETURN UNTIL FRIDAY
WHEN A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY WHEN A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
SYSTEM IS PROGGED BY THE ECMFW AND THE GFS TO BE FAST MOVING WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY SITES WILL SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURE
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY GENERALLY IN THE 70S. LOW TEMPS THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY COOL SLIGHTLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WEST OF THE
DRY LINE. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE
THROUGH 6 PM. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE SOME AFTER SUNSET AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  43  65  42  69  46 /  10   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              45  69  39  71  44 /  20   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             41  61  37  63  40 /  50   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            40  65  38  69  44 /  10   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          42  63  35  67  43 /  20   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            43  65  43  68  46 /  20   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           43  64  39  67  42 /  50   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         47  65  41  68  45 /  40   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            43  68  39  72  43 /  20   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     39  70  36  72  41 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ100-101-115-
116-129-130-141.

&&

79/58

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
605 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2011

TXZ121-090030-
KAUFMAN TX-
605 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL KAUFMAN COUNTY

AT 605 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTH OF FORNEY...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE COMBINE...CRANDALL...
FORNEY...KAUFMAN AND TERRELL.

NICKEL-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3256 9612 3258 9652 3276 9652 3276 9651
      3279 9613
TIME...MOT...LOC 0005Z 269DEG 16KT 3267 9642

92

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
624 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 PM     HAIL             1 N TERRELL             32.74N  96.28W
03/08/2011  E0.88 INCH       KAUFMAN            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

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