River Flood Warning 6, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
634 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2011

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR CURRENT FASTER FORWARD SPEED OF OUR UPPER SHORTWAVE
FINALLY MOVING ACROSS AND TRIMMED POPS TO JUST FAR E/SE COUNTIES.
ALSO REMOVED THUNDER...AS BEST INSTABILITY BOTH SURFACE/ALOFT HAS
MOVED TO THE EAST OF NORTH TEXAS. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WILL
DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING/AFTER TO NEAR CALM AND DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR AT LEAST PATCHY
THICKER FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT WITH MOIST SOILS AND AREAS
WEST OF I-35 CORRIDOR FOR PATCHY FROST WITH THE BEGINNING OF
GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY. WE'LL MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING
AND ISSUE A NEW UPDATE IF IT APPEARS TEMPERATURES DIP MORE THAN
EXPECTED AND FOG/FROST BECOMES AN ISSUE.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...LOW CEILINGS EARLY...REDUCED VSBY LATE NIGHT/MORNING.

AREA OF PRECIP HAS PUSHED WELL EAST...AND BACK EDGE OF CLOUD BANK
IS WITHIN SIGHT. WILL STILL BE SOME OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...BEFORE EVACUATING. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS ABOVE WET GROUND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME BR...BUT NOT EXPECTING
ANY IFR VSBY. VSBY WILL IMPROVE BY MID-MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT NE WINDS PREVAILING ON TUESDAY. SOUTH FLOW MAY BEGIN AS
EARLY AS SUNSET TUESDAY.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2011/
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SOUTHWESTWARD TO
THE TEXAS GULF COAST. RAIN AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS DUE TO PERSISTENT OVERRUNNING OF THE
FRONTAL LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF A LARGE-SCALE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TROUGH AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SOUTHWARD INTO WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS. AS THE SYSTEM WORKS ITS
WAY EAST ACROSS THE STATE...PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END FROM
WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREA WIDE
TOMORROW.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY HAS DECREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE LAST NIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW REPORTS OF SMALL
HAIL THIS MORNING. MAIN ISSUE TODAY HAS BEEN MINOR STREET FLOODING
DUE TO 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE FROM THE
DALLAS-FORT WORTH AREA NORTHWARD TO THE RED RIVER. HIGHEST TOTALS
BETWEEN NOW AND SUNSET SHOULD OCCUR OVER NORTHEASTERN-MOST
COUNTIES...WITH ANOTHER INCH POSSIBLE BEFORE ACTIVITY COMES TO AN
END TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TOMORROW BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND 70 BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM...REACHING AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. RETURN-FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND
NEXT FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS STATES. THIS FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LOOKS POOR AND MOISTURE LEVELS LOOK FAR TOO LOW
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO RESULT FROM THE SYSTEM...SO WILL
LEAVE POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT IN THE EXTENDED AND MONITOR FUTURE
MODEL TRENDS FOR ANY POSSIBLE CHANGES.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  42  72  49  77  54 /  10   0   0   5   0
WACO, TX              39  70  41  77  51 /  10   0   0   5   0
PARIS, TX             41  64  44  72  50 /  30   5   0   5   0
DENTON, TX            36  70  43  78  51 /  10   0   0   5   0
MCKINNEY, TX          40  69  43  76  49 /  10   0   0   5   0
DALLAS, TX            43  70  50  76  55 /  10   0   0   5   0
TERRELL, TX           41  67  43  76  51 /  20   0   0   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         41  67  44  76  52 /  30   0   0   5   0
TEMPLE, TX            40  71  41  76  50 /  10   0   0   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     36  70  42  75  49 /  10   0   0   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

25/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
334 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-031200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
334 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE
STORMS. MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME