Areal Flood Warning 9, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
337 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

.DISCUSSION...
A SMALL COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK EAST THROUGH EAST CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
SPOTTY HIGHER WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AS THIS
PASSES. THE BETTER CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE BEFORE 12-14Z. AFTER THIS
EXPECT A FAIRLY QUIET AND HUMID DAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STILL PLANNING ON A WEAK IMPULSE TO MOVE FROM COLORADO INTO THE
AREA...WHICH COULD SPARK SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SOME CONCERN
ABOUT WHAT WILL FIRE IN NORTHEAST KANSAS...EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN KANSAS WITH ENERGY THAT WRAPS TO THE NORTH AND A BETTER
BOUNDARY. THIS WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCES CATEGORY FOR THE MOST
PART. WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.80 INCHES AGAIN AND CAP VALUES
LIKELY APPROACHING 3500 J/KG...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT.
ESPECIALLY WITH MARGINAL SHEAR PROFILES. ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET
DOES INCREASE A BIT EARLY THIS EVENING SO CANNOT RULE OUT ANOTHER
MCS IN THE AREA WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER. OTHERWISE A VERY WARM AND
HUMID DAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND HIGHS FROM THE
MID 80S TO POSSIBLY MID 90S. THIS WILL CREATE SOME HEAT INDICES
AROUND 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. AND WITHOUT MUCH WIND IT WILL
FEEL PRETTY UNCOMFORTABLE.

THIS TIME AROUND...WHICH DOES HAVE SOME CONSISTENCY FROM
YESTERDAY...THE MODELS ARE HINTING THAT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WILL BE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
A MARGINALLY BETTER WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS AND
INCREASE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WHICH WILL AID IN PRODUCING BETTER
SHEAR VALUES. WHEN COUPLED WITH FAIRLY STRONG INSTABILITY A
POTENTIALLY MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST. STILL
VERY HUMID BUT WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER MAY NOT BE QUITE AS HOT
SO SHOOTING FOR MAINLY 80S FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. TUESDAY HIGHS VERY
DEPENDENT UPON CONVECTION BUT WILL CUT BACK A BIT WITH A LITTLE MORE
CONFIDENCE IN CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL AIM FOR HIGHS IN THE
70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
SD...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
430 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-111200-
AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA-
CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE-
DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-
IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN-
LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN-
OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN-
SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON-
430 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER EAST
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH SUNRISE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

BY LATE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE BEST CHANCE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH AND HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS.

FLOODING...
A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY NEAR HIGHWAY 14 INTO SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA. SOME LOCAL SPOTS COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAINFALL.

RECORD HIGH RELEASES ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER WILL CONTINUE INTO
LATE SUMMER. HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
BETWEEN CHAMBERLAIN AND SIOUX CITY.

ADDITIONALLY...THE JAMES RIVER WILL BE IN FLOOD UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE...ALONG WITH LOWER PORTIONS OF THE BIG SIOUX NEAR SIOUX
CITY DUE TO BACKWATER EFFECTS FROM THE MISSOURI RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF
DOLLARS AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN
WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH AREAS AGAIN SEEING A POTENTIAL FOR 2
TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 500 PM CDT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SIOUXFALLS. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
358 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CHESTER                 43.89N 96.93W
07/10/2011                   LAKE               SD   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER WAS REPORTED OVER A FEW ROADS IN SOUTHEASTERN LAKE
            COUNTY.

&&

KWEISSER