Alert archive / Arizona / Special Weather Statements in 2011
Special Weather Statement, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this special weather statement at Aug 19, 2011, 1:16 PM MST. It was in force for 14 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 19, 2011, 1:16 PM MST (20:16 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 19, 2011, 1:30 PM MST
- In force
- 14 min
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
The radar
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 59 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 8.3 hours before the alert went out and 49 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 240 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -73 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1084 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 14 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 43 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 55 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
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</html>What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Aug 19, 9:30 AM MST, 3 hours 46 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 19, 9:30 AM MST, 3 hours 46 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 930 AM MST FRI AUG 19 2011 .SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OVER THE WEEKEND A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LIMITING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. && .DISCUSSION...SUBTROPICAL HIGH REMAINS CENTERED NEAR TEXAS AND EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS NM AND AZ ALLOWING A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE. IN ADDITION...OVERNIGHT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WAS ABLE TO PUSH SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE...AND DUST...INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. MORNING SOUNDING INDICATES MODERATE INSTABILITY BUT ONLY WEAK STEERING LEVEL FLOW. THUS EXPECT SLOW MOVING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE MAIN THREAT TODAY WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS THE SAME LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. BY SUNDAY...A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC STRENGTHENING THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND BRINGING IN DRIER AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...INCLUDING THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN A DRYING TREND STARTING IN THE WEST ON SUNDAY AND PROGRESSING EASTWARD ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO RETURN BY MIDWEEK WITH AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SPREADING FROM EAST TO WEST. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER WITH BASES FROM 9-11KFT AGL WILL GIVE WAY TO SCT TO NMRS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING BY 18Z. MOST CONCENTRATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED SOUTH/EAST OF A LINE FROM KPRC-KCMR-KRQE. EXPECT ERRATIC AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...AS WELL AS BRIEF MVFR/LCL IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. MOST STORMS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z/SAT....THOUGH SOME SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER THROUGH 06Z/SAT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && PUBLIC........DB AVIATION......OUTLER FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF.
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 19, 3:37 AM MST, 9 hours 39 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 337 AM MST FRI AUG 19 2011 AZZ004>018-037>040-200645- KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY- COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY- CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS- NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS- OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- 337 AM MST FRI AUG 19 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST COCONINO COUNTY...PORTIONS OF YAVAPAI COUNTY...NORTHERN GILA COUNTY AND SOUTHERN NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES. LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING INTO EASTERN AND EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT. WEATHER SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Aug 19, 1:16 PM MST, 0 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 116 PM MST FRI AUG 19 2011 AZZ012-015-192030- COCONINO AZ- 116 PM MST FRI AUG 19 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR... SOUTH CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA UNTIL 130 PM MST AT 110 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF TWIN ARROWS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MILEPOST 225 ON I-40... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE TEMPORARY PONDING ON SOME ROADS. IN HEAVY RAINFALL SLOW DOWN TO REDUCE THE RISK OF HYDROPLANING...AND LEAVE A SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN YOURSELF AND OTHER VEHICLES. && LAT...LON 3514 11117 3497 11130 3509 11144 3517 11134 TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 308DEG 6KT 3511 11128 KD
The office that day
Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 12:31 PM MST | Areal Flood Advisory | FGZ | Coconino | 74 min |
| Aug 19, 12:52 PM MST | Areal Flood Advisory | FGZ | Navajo | 83 min |
| Aug 19, 1:36 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 2 hr |
| Aug 19, 2:53 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | FGZ | 7 min | |
| Aug 19, 3:19 PM MST | Areal Flood Advisory | FGZ | Navajo | 116 min |
| Aug 19, 3:38 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 37 min |
| Aug 19, 4:13 PM MST | Areal Flood Advisory | FGZ | Yavapai | 92 min |
Nearby
Special Weather Statements in Arizona, 2011Every special weather statement in 2011
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.