Special Weather Statement, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST THU AUG 4 2011

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH DRIER AIR ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DOWNTURN IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WHILE
EASTERN AREAS WILL STILL SEE ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER
THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL
PLACE A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF ARIZONA. AS A
RESULT...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MIXES WITH MUCH DRIER
AIR ALOFT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE NEAR ZERO NORTH
OF THE MOGOLLON RIM BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH DRIER AIR DOMINATING
THE AREA. STILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON DEEPER MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. ALSO...WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STORMS ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM SOUTHWARD OVER HIGHER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS.

FOR MONDAY AND HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING WESTWARD BACK ACROSS
ARIZONA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER MOISTURE AND AN INCREASING
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION....FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...TIL 03Z ...EXPECT SCT-BKN CU/SC
WITH BASES FROM 8-11KFT AGL WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA NORTH OF
KGCN-KFLG-KCFT LINE AND ISOLATED TSRA ELSEWHERE. MVFR/LCL IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AFT 03Z... CLOUDS AND TSTM COVERAGE DECREASING BECMG SCT-SCT15-200
AFT 06Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC..................MCCOLLUM
AVIATION................41

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
600 AM MST THU AUG 4 2011

AZZ004>018-037>040-050945-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
600 AM MST THU AUG 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ARIZONA...NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A MODESTLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR
TODAY...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING FROM LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE EVENING. THREATS FROM THE STORMS INCLUDE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. RECENT BURN
AREAS...INCLUDING THE SCHULTZ...WALLOW...AND LOCUST ARE
VULNERABLE TO FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE MONSOONAL MOISTURE
WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. STILL...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST...MAINLY
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND CHUSKA MOUNTAINS OF FAR EASTERN
ARIZONA. MOISTURE MAY RETURN GRADUALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
153 PM MST THU AUG 4 2011

AZZ004-006-007-042130-
COCONINO AZ-
153 PM MST THU AUG 4 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA

UNTIL 230 PM MST

AT 147 PM MST...RADAR DETECTED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TUSAYAN
AND THE GRAND CANYON VILLAGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   HERMITS REST AT GRAND CANYON...
   TUSAYAN...
   SOUTH RIM VISITORS CENTER AND TUSAYAN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND STORMS APPROACH...TAKE SHELTER IN
A STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3621 11210 3602 11196 3591 11225 3607 11235
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 254DEG 9KT 3601 11223

RB/CO

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