Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2011

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

July 4, 2011Gila County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 4, 2011, 5:51 PM MST for Gila County, Arizona. It was in force for 24 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 4, 2011, 5:51 PM MST (00:51 UTC)
Expired: Jul 4, 2011, 6:15 PM MST
In force: 24 min
Issued by: NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Area: Storm-based polygon

County Gila County, AZ

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 64 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Phoenix, AZ (KPSR), launched 00:00Z, 0.9 hours before the alert went out and 86 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 688 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -121 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2268 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 11 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 71 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

699 
WUUS55 KFGZ 050051
SVRFGZ
AZC007-050115-
/O.NEW.KFGZ.SV.W.0003.110705T0051Z-110705T0115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
551 PM MST MON JUL 4 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  WEST CENTRAL GILA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA...

* UNTIL 615 PM MST

* AT 544 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED JUST 
  EAST OF JAKES CORNER...OR 17 MILES SOUTH OF PAYSON...AND MOVING 
  NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RYE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS ISSUED FOR STORMS PRODUCING HAIL 1
INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER...AND/OR WINDS GREATER THAN 57 MPH.

&&

LAT...LON 3400 11143 3401 11143 3401 11145 3402 11147
      3418 11141 3406 11112 3388 11122
TIME...MOT...LOC 0049Z 116DEG 14KT 3402 11127

$$
JJ

1 follow-up statement

004 
WWUS55 KFGZ 050119
SVSFGZ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
619 PM MST MON JUL 4 2011

AZC007-050127-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110705T0115Z/
GILA AZ-
619 PM MST MON JUL 4 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL GILA COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...

AT 615 PM MST...RADAR INDICATED THAT THE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED 
THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED. HOWEVER...HAIL NEAR ONE-HALF INCH IN 
DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR 50 MPH ARE STILL LIKELY WITH THE STORM 
AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF JAKES CORNER ALONG HIGHWAY 188 THROUGH 640 PM 
MST.

LAT...LON 3400 11143 3401 11143 3401 11145 3402 11147
      3418 11141 3406 11112 3388 11122
TIME...MOT...LOC 0051Z 116DEG 14KT 3402 11128

$$
JJ

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 4, 3:30 PM MST, 2 hours 21 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 4, 3:30 PM MST, 2 hours 21 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 PM MST MON JUL 4 2011

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL ALLOW
MONSOON MOISTURE TO CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEATHER PATTERN WITH FOUR CORNERS HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS
TO SUPPORT DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
WEEK. THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOST
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE MOGOLLON RIM...BUT ARE CURRENTLY SHIFTING INTO
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY AND REMAINING PORTIONS OF COCONINO COUNTY.
STEERING WINDS WITH STORMS HAVE REMAINED LIGHT AND PREDOMINANTLY TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND WE
ARE KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS UP TO
40KTS WITH STRONGER STORMS. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TUESDAY
AROUND 18Z OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SPREADING INTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL
BRING LIGHT WINDS...SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...AND CONTINUED
DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD...WHICH MAY BRING A
SLIGHT DRYING TREND BY NEXT WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CHANCES FOR
DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC......................KD
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER.......DJO

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF.

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 4, 10:02 AM MST, 7 hours 49 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1002 AM MST MON JUL 4 2011

AZZ004>018-037>040-050400-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
1002 AM MST MON JUL 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ARIZONA...NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY MID-DAY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND SPREAD WESTWARD ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM AND EVENTUALLY INTO LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS. SMALL
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE A THREAT WITH SOME OF THE
STORMS. THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE THE RECENTLY BURNED AREAS IN SOUTHERN APACHE AND NAVAJO
COUNTIES...THE LOCUST AND THE WALLOW BURN AREAS...AND THE SCHULTZ
BURN AREA IN COCONINO COUNTY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH ACROSS
NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO FEED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE AREAS OF CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE THE RECENTLY BURNED AREAS IN SOUTHERN APACHE AND
NAVAJO COUNTIES...THE LOCUST AND THE WALLOW BURN AREAS...AND THE
SCHULTZ BURN AREA IN COCONINO COUNTY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 4, 2:47 PM MST, 3 hours 4 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
247 PM MST MON JUL 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     FLOOD            7 NE FLAGSTAFF          35.26N 111.53W
07/04/2011                   COCONINO           AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FLOODING AND ROCK DEBRIS OVER PAINTBRUSH LANE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1100166

DJO

Special weather statement, Jul 4, 4:56 PM MST, 55 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
456 PM MST MON JUL 4 2011

AZZ018-050030-
GILA AZ-
456 PM MST MON JUL 4 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL GILA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA

UNTIL 530 PM MST

AT 450 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG HIGHWAY 288 FROM 5 TO 15 MILES
SOUTH OF YOUNG. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 10
MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE
RAPID PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND RISING WATER IN AREA WASHES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. STAY TUNED TO
NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL RADIO OR TV FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.

&&

LAT...LON 3385 11122 3411 11122 3408 11086 3382 11089
TIME...MOT...LOC 2355Z 095DEG 13KT 3392 11099

JJ

Special weather statement, Jul 4, 5:33 PM MST, 18 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
533 PM MST MON JUL 4 2011

AZZ018-050115-
GILA AZ-
533 PM MST MON JUL 4 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WEST CENTRAL GILA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA

UNTIL 615 PM MST

AT 520 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 15 MILES EAST OF PUNKIN CENTER...MOVING
WEST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE
RAPID PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADS...AND RISING WATER IN WASHES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   JAKES CORNER...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND STORMS APPROACH...TAKE SHELTER IN
A STURDY BUILDING IF POSSIBLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3382 11120 3391 11128 3395 11139 3398 11142
      3402 11145 3406 11144 3398 11102 3380 11105
TIME...MOT...LOC 0030Z 097DEG 20KT 3390 11114

JJ

The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 4, 5:33 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ	Gila	42 min
Jul 4, 6:44 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	31 min
Jul 4, 6:50 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	25 min
Jul 4, 7:54 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Apache	111 min
Jul 4, 9:49 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Apache	56 min
Jul 4, 10:52 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Apache	45 min
Jul 5, 1:07 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Yavapai	83 min
Jul 5, 3:00 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Yavapai	90 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2011 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.