Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2011
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 7, 2011, 3:47 PM MST for Gila County, Arizona. It was in force for 13 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 7, 2011, 3:47 PM MST (22:47 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 7, 2011, 4:00 PM MST
- In force
- 13 min
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
County Gila County, AZ
The radar
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 48 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Phoenix, AZ (KPSR), launched 12:00Z, 10.8 hours before the alert went out and 100 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 625 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -208 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1986 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 18 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -27 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 31 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.1
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
369 WUUS55 KFGZ 072247 SVRFGZ AZC007-072300- /O.NEW.KFGZ.SV.W.0010.110707T2247Z-110707T2300Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 347 PM MST THU JUL 7 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN GILA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA... * UNTIL 400 PM MST * AT 343 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MILEPOST 245 ON SR 87...OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF PAYSON...AND MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... MILEPOST 245 ON SR 87 BY 355 PM MST... LAT...LON 3418 11135 3417 11128 3411 11130 3413 11138 TIME...MOT...LOC 2246Z 198DEG 2KT 3415 11132 $$
1 follow-up statement
954 WWUS55 KFGZ 072257 SVSFGZ SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 357 PM MST THU JUL 7 2011 AZC007-072306- /O.EXP.KFGZ.SV.W.0010.000000T0000Z-110707T2300Z/ GILA AZ- 357 PM MST THU JUL 7 2011 ...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN GILA COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 400 PM MST... THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED. HOWEVER THE STORM IS STILL PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF ROUTE 87 BETWEEN RYE AND PAYSON. LAT...LON 3418 11135 3417 11128 3411 11130 3413 11138 TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 198DEG 2KT 3416 11132 $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 7, 3:30 PM MST, 17 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 7, 3:30 PM MST, 17 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 330 PM MST THU JUL 7 2011 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME AREAS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY OVER THE RECENT WILDFIRE BURN AREAS. && .DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PRODUCED AROUND 1 INCH OF RAINFALL TODAY...BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL REMAIN EAST OF ARIZONA IN A PERFECT POSITION TO CONTINUE OUR WET MONSOON PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK STORM MOTION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SLOW MOVING OUTFLOW DRIVEN STORMS EACH DAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY OVER THE RECENT WILDFIRE BURN AREAS. FORECAST MODELS SHOW DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. ALTHOUGH THE LONGER RANGE MODEL FORECASTS SHOW A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE NEXT WEEK...WE REMAIN SKEPTICAL AT THIS TIME...AND WILL NEED TO SEE MORE CONSISTENT MODEL FORECASTS OVER A SHORTER FORECAST PERIOD BEFORE WE MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THIS MOIST WEATHER PATTERN. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS (01Z-03Z). A FEW STORMS MAY LAST TROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WITH STORMS. MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY 17-19Z. SCATTERED MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER.../NOTE: EFFECTIVE FRIDAY JULY 8 2011...THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL NO LONGER APPEAR. IT WILL REAPPEAR DURING THE 2012 FIRE SEASON. PLEASE CONTACT GEORGE HOWARD AT 928-556-9161 WITH ANY QUESTIONS./ HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO WILL BRING CONTINUED DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE CHANCE FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && PUBLIC......................BOHLIN AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER.......MAS FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF.
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 7, 9:07 AM MST, 6 hours 40 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 907 AM MST THU JUL 7 2011 AZZ004>018-037>040-080700- KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY- COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY- CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS- NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS- OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- 907 AM MST THU JUL 7 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY. WEAK WIND SHEAR AND SLOW SOUTHERLY STORM MOTION WILL PRODUCE SLOW MOVING STORMS. SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS TODAY. THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE COMMUNITIES NEAR THE RECENT WILDFIRE BURN AREAS...INCLUDING THE LOCUST...THE WALLOW...AND THE SCHULTZ. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MOIST FLOW AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH EAST OF ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE STATE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. SOME STORMS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONTINUED WEAK STORM MOTION AND A DEEP MOISTURE LAYER WILL MEAN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 6, 5:11 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | FGZ | 49 min | |
| Jul 6, 5:25 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 35 min |
| Jul 6, 6:04 PM MST | Areal Flood Advisory | FGZ | Yavapai | 65 min |
| Jul 7, 2:51 PM MST | Areal Flood Advisory | FGZ | Yavapai | 74 min |
| Jul 7, 3:17 PM MST | Areal Flood Advisory | FGZ | Gila | 118 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2011Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2011
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.