Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

555 
WGUS65 KFGZ 262020
FFAFGZ

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
120 PM MST TUE JUL 26 2011

AZZ004>007-009>017-039-040-270300-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-110727T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
BLACK MESA AREA-NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JACOB LAKE...FREDONIA...PAGE...
LEES FERRY...GRAND CANYON VILLAGE...SUPAI...NORTH RIM...VALLE...
KEAMS CANYON...KAIBITO...CANYON DE CHELLY...CHINLE...KAYENTA...
WINDOW ROCK...GANADO...WUPATKI N.M....TUBA CITY...WINSLOW...
HOLBROOK...SNOWFLAKE...ST. JOHNS...SPRINGERVILLE...FLAGSTAFF...
WILLIAMS...MUNDS PARK...HEBER...HAPPY JACK...FOREST LAKES...
SHOW LOW...GREER...PINETOP...NAVAJO N.M....DILKON...KYKOTSMOVI
120 PM MST TUE JUL 26 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS
EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR COCONINO...NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES
  IN ARIZONA.

* UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING

* ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA
  TODAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY AND
  WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE
  OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY LEADING TO FLASH
  FLOODING IN SOME LOCATIONS.

* RECENTLY BURNED AREAS ARE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO FLASH 
  FLOODING. THIS INCLUDES THE SCHULTZ...WALLOW...AND LOCUST BURN 
  AREAS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT DEVELOPING CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. PEOPLE...ESPECIALLY THOSE
LOCATED ALONG AREA CREEKS...RIVERS OR OTHER FLASH FLOOD PRONE
AREAS...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE
ISSUED.

&&

$$

KD

578 
WGUS65 KFGZ 270211
FFAFGZ

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
711 PM MST TUE JUL 26 2011

AZZ004>007-009>017-039-040-270315-
/O.CAN.KFGZ.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-110727T0300Z/
/00000.0.UU.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
BLACK MESA AREA-NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JACOB LAKE...FREDONIA...PAGE...
LEES FERRY...GRAND CANYON VILLAGE...SUPAI...NORTH RIM...VALLE...
KEAMS CANYON...KAIBITO...CANYON DE CHELLY...CHINLE...KAYENTA...
WINDOW ROCK...GANADO...WUPATKI N.M....TUBA CITY...WINSLOW...
HOLBROOK...SNOWFLAKE...ST. JOHNS...SPRINGERVILLE...FLAGSTAFF...
WILLIAMS...MUNDS PARK...HEBER...HAPPY JACK...FOREST LAKES...
SHOW LOW...GREER...PINETOP...NAVAJO N.M....DILKON...KYKOTSMOVI
711 PM MST TUE JUL 26 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...
NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE HAS DECREASED THIS EVENING TO MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD...WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO THE WEST OF FLAGSTAFF. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS EITHER LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH VERY LITTLE HEAVY
RAIN. 

SINCE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN HAS GREATLY DECREASED...THE FLASH
FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST TUE JUL 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BRINGING DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ABUNDANT MOISTURE RESIDES OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR OR OVER ONE INCH...AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S. A MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE LOCATED ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AZ WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TO
NEAR THE UT/AZ BORDER BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND MAY BECOME A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION LATER TODAY IF SUFFICIENT SFC HEATING OCCURS. OVERALL
INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE FOR MOST AREAS...SO
EXPECTING LITTLE IF ANY SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE
DEEP MOISTURE...STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCERS. FOR THIS REASON...WE WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MTNS TODAY. THIS
INCLUDES THE RECENTLY BURNED AREAS.

A DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF AZ...BUT MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS INDICATE
THAT MOISTURE WILL SURGE BACK OVER ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA FRIDAY
AND THE WEEKEND FOR AN UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA TODAY WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17Z TO 04Z. COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AFTER 04Z WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION FORECAST. EXPECT ERRATIC AND GUSTY
WINDS WITH MVFR/LCL IFR CONDITIONS NEAR HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH 10 AM UNTIL 8
PM MST TODAY FOR ZONES AZZ004>007-009>017-039-040.

&&

PUBLIC..................JJ
AVIATION................BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
430 AM MST MON JUL 25 2011

AZZ004>018-037>040-260700-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
430 AM MST MON JUL 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING
IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
SLIGHT DRYING TREND IS POSSIBLE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.