Flash Flood Watch 1, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
855 PM MST SUN JUL 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY MONDAY WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A PROGRESSIVE DRYING TREND WILL
BEGIN ON TUESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BY THURSDAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY BACK
INTO THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FADING AWAY IN A MORE ORDERLY
MANNER TONIGHT COMPARED TO SATURDAY EVENING. A TROUGH ENTERING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT AND MONDAY TO MAKE THINGS INTERESTING. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED
TO SEE CONVECTION FIRE BACK UP TONIGHT TO OUR SOUTH WITH A GOOD
POTENTIAL MONDAY FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THIS IS THE PRECURSOR TO
A DRYING TREND THAT WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A NEARLY PRECIPITATION-FREE FORECAST BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. ZONES/GRIDS LOOK GOOD...NO UPDATES TONIGHT. WE WILL
STICK TO SHORT-TERM ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCT-BKN CIGS FROM 8-12KFT
AGL WITH ISOLD SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 07Z-09Z...THEN PARTIAL CLEARING.
STORMS WILL REDEVELOP EARLIER MONDAY MORNING...BY ABOUT 13Z-15Z FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. EXPECT NMRS SHRA/TSRA WITH ISOLD +TSRA BY 17Z-19Z.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND MVFR/LCL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
NEAR STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC..................PETERSON
AVIATION................PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
936 AM MST SUN JUL 10 2011

AZZ004>018-037>040-110715-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
936 AM MST SUN JUL 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ARIZONA...NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER CLOUD-FREE AREAS BY LATE MORNING. WHERE CLOUD COVER
EXISTS...VIGOROUS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED BY A FEW
HOURS. STORMS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. TODAY'S
STORMS WILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...CAUSING SOME ISOLATED NUISANCE FLOODING.
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...GRADUAL
DRYING BEGIN TO CREEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. MOISTURE SHOULD
RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

HOWARD