Flash Flood Warning 48, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

363 
WGUS75 KFGZ 150039
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
539 PM MST WED SEP 14 2011

AZC025-150130-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0048.000000T0000Z-110915T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
YAVAPAI AZ-
539 PM MST WED SEP 14 2011

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM MST FOR EAST
CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY...

AT 532 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING OVER 
THE WARNED AREA. THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS MOVED 
SOUTHWARD ABOUT 3 MILES SOUTH OF COTTONWOOD AND PAGE SPRINGS BUT 
DIRECTLY OVER THE CORNVILLE AREA. HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING CELLS 
CONTINUE TO FORM AND MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS. AVOID TRAVEL IN THIS 
AREA IF POSSIBLE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 3474 11203 3488 11184 3478 11184 3473 11183
      3464 11197

$$

MCCOLLUM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
305 PM MST WED SEP 14 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA WILL BRING
A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE. COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE. EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND
BY FRIDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL
AVERAGES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY ACTIVE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN AZ AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE STATE. AMPLE
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT HAS ALLOWED
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. MANY STORMS HAVE
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND LOCAL FLOODING
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING BUT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A DOWNTURN OVERNIGHT SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT. LIFTED INDEX VALUES INCREASE INDICATING MORE
STABILIZATION OVERNIGHT BUT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
TO KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN AZ WITH
THE CENTER OF THE LOW AND BEST DYNAMIC FORCING MOVING INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE AND CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS TO BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM. DRYING WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY EVENING
REDUCING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE GRAND CANYON
NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.
MUCH DRIER WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE REGION. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES NEXT WEEK...MODELS
SHOW A BIT OF MOISTURE TRYING TO MOVE BACK INTO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
REGION BY MIDWEEK. WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD FOR NOW AND WILL WATCH HOW THE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCT TO NMRS SHRA/TSRA...AND ISOLD
+TSRA WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. EXPECT ISOLD IFR CONDITIONS WITH
ANY +TSRA. SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
TO 60KT.  CONVECTION WILL DECREASE TO ISOLD/SCT COVERAGE AFT 02Z-04Z
THURSDAY. ISOLD-SCT STORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC..................MCS
AVIATION................MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
341 PM MST WED SEP 14 2011

AZZ004>018-037>040-150700-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
341 PM MST WED SEP 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ARIZONA...NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN BEING THE PRIMARY
THREATS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BRING A THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR BURN AREAS...SUCH AS THE
SCHULTZ...LOCUST...AND WALLOW FIRE BURN SCARS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME
AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE INTO THURSDAY AS THE
LOW MOVES VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY...WITH THE STRONGER STORMS MOST
LIKELY LOCATED FROM FLAGSTAFF NORTH AND NORTHEAST.

BY FRIDAY...EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD TREND IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AS DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR COMES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
DRYING...AND WARMING TREND...WILL LAST INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1253 PM MST WED SEP 14 2011

AZZ004-005-009-142015-
COCONINO AZ-
1253 PM MST WED SEP 14 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTH CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA

UNTIL 115 PM MST

AT 1245 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING ROUTE 89A IN THE HOUSE ROCK
VALLEY. THIS IS BETWEEN HOUSE ROCK AND MARBLE CANYON. THESE STORMS
WERE MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG
WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RURAL NORTHERN COCONINO COUNTY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND STORMS APPROACH...TAKE SHELTER IN
A STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3677 11205 3681 11173 3662 11169 3657 11199
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 178DEG 12KT 3666 11186

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST WED SEP 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     HAIL             2 S MUNDS PARK          34.91N 111.64W
09/14/2011  M1.00 INCH       COCONINO           AZ   NWS EMPLOYEE

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL COVERING THE GROUND 1 MILE SOUTH OF
            THE SCNEBLY HILL RD EXIT ON I-17.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1100255

MCS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
307 PM MST WED SEP 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SSW MILEPOST 300 ON S 36.89N 111.40W
09/14/2011                   COCONINO           AZ   PARK SERVICE

            AN OFFICIAL WITH THE LAKE POWELL TRIBAL PARK REPORTED
            FLOODING OF RATTLE SNAKE AND OWL CANYONS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1100256

RICKEY