Flash Flood Warning 38, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

153 
WGUS75 KFGZ 292214
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
314 PM MST MON AUG 29 2011

AZC001-292315-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0038.000000T0000Z-110829T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
APACHE AZ-
314 PM MST MON AUG 29 2011

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM MST FOR
SOUTHEASTERN APACHE COUNTY...

AT 305 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT THE STORMS HAVE WEAKENED...WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IF ANY  
FALLING FROM NUTRIOSO SOUTH TO ALPINE. ONCE AGAIN THE THUNDERSTORM 
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING HAVE WEAKENED.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
 NUTRIOSO...
 ALPINE...
 HIGHWAY 180 AND 191 SOUTH OF NUTRIOSO THROUGH ALPINE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES...
DAVIS CREEK...AUGER CREEK...NUTRIOSO CREEK...MILK CREEK...TROUT
CREEK...COLEMAN CREEK...SAN FRANCISCO RIVER...COLTER CREEK...COYOTE
CREEK...TURKEY CREEK...CAMPBELL BLUE CREEK...MAMIE CREEK...HULSEY
CREEK...PADDY CREEK...PACE CREEK...CANYON CREEK...ROMERO CREEK AND
STONE CREEK.

THE FLASH FLOODING FLOW PRODUCE BY THE HEAVY RAIN EARLIER WILL 
CONTINUE TO RECEDE WITH THE THREAT OF FLOODING IN THE DRAINAGE 
MENTIONED ABOVE DECREASING AND RECEDING THROUGH 400 PM MST. 

&&

LAT...LON 3397 10924 3396 10905 3378 10905 3378 10924

$$
TC

273 
WGUS75 KFGZ 292248
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
348 PM MST MON AUG 29 2011

AZC001-292255-
/O.CAN.KFGZ.FF.W.0038.000000T0000Z-110829T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
APACHE AZ-
348 PM MST MON AUG 29 2011

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR SOUTHEASTERN APACHE
COUNTY...

AT 347 PM MST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
NO ADDITIONAL RAIN HAS FALLEN AT LEAST SINCE 200 PM MST AROUND THE 
AREA FROM NUTRIOSO SOUTH TO ALPINE. 

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELED...SINCE NO ADDITIONAL 
RAINFALL IS THREATENING THE AREA...AND ANY FLOODING HAS SINCE 
RECEDED. 


LAT...LON 3397 10924 3396 10905 3378 10905 3378 10924

$$
TC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
935 AM MST MON AUG 29 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS MOST OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING CONTINUING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST COULD BRING A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE NORTHERN BORDER OF ARIZONA ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE STAYS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR HAS MOVED OVER NORTHERN AZ COMPARED WITH 24
HOURS AGO...HOWEVER MORNING SOUNDING FROM FLAGSTAFF INDICATES AMPLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND NOON...THEN WILL SPREAD INTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION...A VERY
WARM AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES APPROACHING EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING CRITERIA IN THE LOW ELEVATIONS OF YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA
COUNTY. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE INDICATES THESE FEATURES WELL AND
NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION/230 AM MST/...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND WITH SUBTLE
DAY-TO-DAY VARIATIONS IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FIRM OVER THE AREA BUT TOWARD FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH BRUSHES NORTHERN ARIZONA...MODELS
PROMISE SOME DRYING ALONG THE ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER. OTHERWISE...MORE
OF THE SAME...WITH STORMS TENDING TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN A FEW MOVING INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY THE
EVENING. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT QUITE
AS HOT AS THE WOBBLING POSITION OF THE HIGH PREVENTS THE BUILDUP OF
HEAT OVER SUCCESSIVE DAYS AND AN INCREASINGLY LESS FAVORABLE SUN
ANGLE COMES INTO PLAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY
WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING. MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS.  THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE BY 04Z MONDAY WITH
SCT CLOUD COVER PERSISTING THROUGH 06Z MON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...........DJO/MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.........MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
521 AM MST MON AUG 29 2011

AZZ004>018-037>040-300715-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
521 AM MST MON AUG 29 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ARIZONA...NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LOWER DESERTS OF
CENTRAL ARIZONA. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HOT WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. THERE
WILL BE A THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.