Flash Flood Warning 35, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

845 
WGUS75 KFGZ 181949
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1249 PM MST THU AUG 18 2011

AZC001-182115-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0035.000000T0000Z-110818T2115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
APACHE AZ-
1249 PM MST THU AUG 18 2011

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM MST FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL APACHE COUNTY...

AT 1244 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE RAINFALL PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WARNED AREA. FLASH 
FLOODING WITH DEBRIS FLOWS ALONG ROADSIDES AND CANYONS HAS BEEN 
REPORTED IN EASTERN GREER AS WELL AS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NUTRIOSO AS OF 
12PM MST.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO GREER AND 
NUTRIOSO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES...BUTLER 
CANYON...AUGER CREEK...LITTLE COLORADO RIVER..NUTRIOSO CREEK...RIGGS 
CREEK...COLTER CREEK...FISH CREEK...ROSEY
CREEK...LANG CREEK...AND TURKEY CREEK.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3410 10945 3404 10924 3398 10913 3388 10918
      3391 10928 3401 10949

$$

OUTLER

053 
WGUS75 KFGZ 182110
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
210 PM MST THU AUG 18 2011

AZC001-182117-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FF.W.0035.000000T0000Z-110818T2115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
APACHE AZ-
210 PM MST THU AUG 18 2011

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 215 PM MST FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL APACHE COUNTY...

LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF THE WARNING AREA BUT WILL DIMINISH 
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME FLASH FLOODING HAD BEEN REPORTED EARLIER IN PARTS 
OF GREER AND NUTRIOSO. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT HAS EASED. HOWEVER...HIGH 
WATER LEVELS IN WASHES AND DRAINAGES MAY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW 
HOURS. 

LAT...LON 3410 10945 3404 10924 3398 10913 3388 10918
      3391 10928 3401 10949

$$

OUTLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST THU AUG 18 2011

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND FRIDAY
...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. ON
SATURDAY...A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL WORK INTO WESTERN ARIZONA
AND SPREAD EASTWARD ON SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DECREASE FROM SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THIS MORNINGS SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN COMPARED
TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY WITH THE DEW POINTS AT THE PAGE AIRPORT
INCREASING BY 15 DEGREES. THIS MEANS THE DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE HAS
REACHED THE UTAH BORDER AS INDICATED YESTERDAY BY THE FORECAST
GUIDANCE. THE FLAGSTAFF 12Z SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS A MORE UNSTABLE MID
LEVEL AIR MASS WHICH WILL INCREASE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.

MORNING FORECAST GRIDS LOOK GOOD...NO UPDATES NEEDED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE PW ESTIMATES SHOW MONSOON
MOISTURE HAS SPREAD NORTHWARD TO THE UTAH BORDER. WHILE THERE IS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF DEBRIS CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN AZ THIS MORNING...IT IS
THINNING WITH TIME. MODELS SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND TODAY AND FRIDAY AND THUS EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CUT OFF
LOW OVER CALIFORNIA...WITH A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING TO
WESTERN ARIZONA. PROGS SHOW MOISTURE AMOUNTS DECREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. IN FACT THE GFS SHOWS A STABLE AIRMASS OVER
ALL THE NORTHLAND AS EARLY AS SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE KEPT NEAR
CLIMO POPS OVER THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS AND
SLASHED THEM LIKE PRICES AT A FURNITURE STORE TO SLIGHT CHANCE (10%
-20%) ELSEWHERE. SHOULD GFS TRENDS CONTINUE...MOST OF THE NORTHLAND
WOULD BE DRY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS COVERAGE OVER THE
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MTNS. ERRATIC AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
AND BRIEF MVFR TO LCL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED AFTER 03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC........BOHLIN / DL
AVIATION......GH

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
600 AM MST THU AUG 18 2011

AZZ004>018-037>040-190645-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
600 AM MST THU AUG 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ARIZONA...NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE GREATEST STORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. LIGHTNING...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A DRIER SOUTHWEST
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING INTO
EASTERN ARIZONA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT.

WEATHER SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.