Flash Flood Warning 30, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

959 
WGUS75 KFGZ 032356
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
456 PM MST WED AUG 3 2011

AZC007-017-040045-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0030.000000T0000Z-110804T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GILA AZ-NAVAJO AZ-
456 PM MST WED AUG 3 2011

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM MST FOR
SOUTHWESTERN NAVAJO AND CENTRAL GILA COUNTIES...

AT 445 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAD DIMINISHED AND ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS 
CONTINUED. LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS THAT CIBECUE CREEK AND OTHER SIDE 
DRAINAGES EXPERIENCED VERY HIGH FLOWS BUT NO WATER HAS CROSSED ANY 
AREA ROADWAYS.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN HIGH
WATER IN AREA STREAMS AND NORMALLY DRY WASHES THROUGH 600 PM MST.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CIBECUE...CANYON 
CREEK...CIBECUE CREEK...SPRING CREEK...AND SALT CREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...NORMALLY DRY WASHES...AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3406 11076 3408 11043 3383 11043 3383 11052
      3385 11057 3378 11069 3377 11075

$$

645 
WGUS75 KFGZ 040040
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
540 PM MST WED AUG 3 2011

AZC007-017-040047-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FF.W.0030.000000T0000Z-110804T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GILA AZ-NAVAJO AZ-
540 PM MST WED AUG 3 2011

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 545 PM MST FOR SOUTHWESTERN
NAVAJO AND CENTRAL GILA COUNTIES...

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CIBECUE AREA AND CANYON CREEK... 
CIBECUE CREEK... SPRING CREEK...AND SALT CREEK HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO 
EXPIRE.

RADAR INDICATED THAT ONLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WERE FALLING ON THE 
FLOOD AREA AND NO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF 
FROM THESE EARLIER STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO RESULT IN HIGH WATER IN 
AREA STREAMS AND NORMALLY DRY WASHES THROUGH EARLY EVENING.


LAT...LON 3406 11076 3408 11043 3383 11043 3383 11052
      3385 11057 3378 11069 3377 11075

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST WED AUG 3 2011

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD START
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE CHANCE OF STORMS
LIMITED MAINLY TO EASTERN ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED
WILL HELP TO PRODUCE A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
ARIZONA. AS A RESULT...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY THE
WEEKEND...STORMS WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM PRESCOTT TO WINDOW ROCK. ONE THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON...QUITE A
BIT OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THIS
USUALLY MAKES FOR TRICKY FORECASTING BECAUSE THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY
CAN WOBBLE NORTHWARD AND PRODUCE SURPRISE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

ON SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH AND WESTWARD ACROSS ARIZONA. IF THE HIGH
BUILDS BACK OVER ARIZONA...THE DOOR WILL THEN OPEN FOR THE DEEP
MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA TO SURGE BACK ACROSS THE STATE
BRINGING AND INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z. AFTER 03Z...THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH. ON THURSDAY...DRIER AIR MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST WILL DECREASE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT MVFR/LCL IFR CONDITIONS
NEAR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC..................MCCOLLUM
AVIATION................BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
558 AM MST WED AUG 3 2011

AZZ004>018-037>040-040645-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
558 AM MST WED AUG 3 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ARIZONA...NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR TODAY. CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EVENING. THREATS
FROM THE STORMS INCLUDE HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. RECENT BURN AREAS...INCLUDING THE
SCHULTZ...WALLOW...AND LOCUST ARE VULNERABLE TO FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE MONSOONAL MOISTURE
STARTING THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASING
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE AT
BEST IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE STATE AND WIDELY SCATTERED
COVERAGE ELSEWHERE THROUGH SUNDAY.  MOISTURE MAY RETURN NEXT WEEK
SO LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST FOR ALL OF NORTHERN AZ
STARTING MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.