Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
925 AM MST SAT JUL 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA
THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ON WEDNESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO BRING MUCH
DRIER AIR INTO WESTERN ARIZONA AND LIMIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO FAR
EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS
MORNING. OVERNIGHT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS HAS DISSIPATED AND CUMULUS HAS
ALREADY BEGUN TO FORM OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE...NO UPDATES NEEDED.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /330 AM MST/...WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING
SHOWS DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND THE 88D WITH
A FEW CELLS ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS YAVAPAI COUNTY. FOR TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY...PROGS OVERALL SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
WITH MOIST SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE BUMPED UP A FEW POINTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MTNS.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THEY
SHOW A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE WEST COAST. WINDS
ALOFT VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR WORKING INTO
WESTERN AZ AS SOON AS TUESDAY AND SPREADING EASTWARD WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE REDUCED OR REMOVED
ACCORDINGLY. THE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY HAS
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM KAYENTA
THROUGH PAYSON. AREAS WEST OF THIS LINE SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND SOME GENTLE SOUTHWEST AFTERNOON WINDS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP FIRST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ERRATIC WINDS AND MVFR/LCL IFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
DECREASING IN COVERAGE BY 03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC..................HOWARD/DL
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...RB

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
944 AM MST SAT JUL 9 2011

AZZ004>018-037>040-100700-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
944 AM MST SAT JUL 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ARIZONA...NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN BY LATE MORNING...SPREADING TO LOWER ELEVATIONS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. STORMS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
TODAY'S STORMS WILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...CAUSING SOME ISOLATED NUISANCE FLOODING.
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE FIRST OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND LATER
OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS...BEGINNING BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SUNDAY SHOULD BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE THAN TODAY. STARTING
MONDAY...LOOK FOR GRADUAL DRYING TO CREEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

HOWARD