Alert archive / Minnesota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2011

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 42, NWS Grand Forks, ND

July 4, 2011Kittson County, Minnesota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 4, 2011, 5:29 PM CDT for Kittson County, Minnesota. It was in force for 61 min. 3 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 4, 2011, 5:29 PM CDT (22:29 UTC)
Expired: Jul 4, 2011, 6:30 PM CDT
In force: 61 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

County Kittson County, MN

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 146 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 4, 5:34 PM CDT	HAIL 1	Orleans, MN	NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED.
Jul 4, 6:05 PM CDT	HAIL 1	7 Ese Hallock, MN
Jul 4, 6:17 PM CDT	HAIL 1	1 W Halma, MN

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 3 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 5 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 4, 3:06 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 12:00Z, 10.5 hours before the alert went out and 271 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 392 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -118 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1095 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 36 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 171 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 218 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 1.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

521 
WUUS53 KFGF 042229
SVRFGF
MNC069-042330-
/O.NEW.KFGF.SV.W.0042.110704T2229Z-110704T2330Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
529 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  KITTSON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 527 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THE STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES
  SOUTHEAST OF HUMBOLDT...OR 36 MILES NORTHEAST OF GRAFTON...MOVING
  TO THE EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ORLEANS AND NORTHCOTE AROUND 535 PM CDT.
  HALLOCK AROUND 545 PM CDT.
  LANCASTER AROUND 555 PM CDT.
  LAKE BRONSON AROUND 615 PM CDT.

THEREAFTER SOME OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
INCLUDE CARIBOU AND HALMA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

THE STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS!

&&

LAT...LON 4861 9641 4879 9717 4880 9718 4881 9716
      4881 9718 4883 9719 4887 9718 4888 9719
      4901 9719 4901 9641
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 290DEG 24KT 4888 9705
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

HOPKINS

1 follow-up statement

108 
WWUS53 KFGF 042258
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
558 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2011

MNC069-042330-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0042.000000T0000Z-110704T2330Z/
KITTSON MN-
558 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KITTSON COUNTY
IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 555 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THE STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
HALLOCK...OR 34 MILES NORTHEAST OF GRAFTON...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 30
MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LAKE BRONSON AROUND 620 PM CDT.
  CARIBOU AROUND 625 PM CDT.
  HALMA AROUND 630 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

THE STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4901 9641 4861 9641 4877 9709 4901 9709
      4901 9687
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 288DEG 24KT 4877 9688

$$

HOPKINS

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 4, 12:52 PM CDT, 4 hours 37 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 4, 12:52 PM CDT, 4 hours 37 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1252 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A GFS/ECMWF MODEL
BLEND...WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM HIGH RESOLUTION WRF OUTPUT.

ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING IS STILL VALID. SURFACE DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN ND
INTO FAR NORTHWEST MN. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES FROM
2000 TO 3000 J/KG ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WHICH IS CURRENTLY
DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. THE CAP REMAINS FIRMLY IN
PLACE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT IS STARTING TO BREAK
DOWN ACROSS SOUTHWEST MANITOBA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A COUPLE
WEAK ECHOES NORTHWEST OF MINOT...THE RADAR IS THUNDERSTORM FREE
ACROSS ALL OF ND INTO NORTHWEST MN. EXPECT THAT TO CHANGE RAPIDLY
AS COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD AND INTERACTS WITH
MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS SHOULD FIRST DEVELOP
ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND NORTHERN VALLEY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN EXPAND SOUTHWESTWARD. DISCRETE STORMS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY COMBINE TO FORM A LINEAR-TYPE MCS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING. PRIMARY THREATS
CONTINUE TO BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND HEAVY RAIN...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A TORNADO OR TWO IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.

COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT TO END AFTER 06 UTC TONIGHT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH TOMORROW
MORNING...TUESDAY WILL BE SUNNY...DRY AND A BIT COOLER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE 50S AND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...IT WILL BE MUCH LESS MUGGY. TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE NEXT PACIFIC WAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

MODELS ALL HAVE SIMILAR IDEA BUT WITH TIMING AND DETAIL DIFFERENCES.
UPPER FLOW WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN CONUS. AN
UPPER LOW WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS CANADA FRI- SAT...SENDING A FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA AND PROVIDING THUNDER CHANCES. ALTHOUGH UPPER JET
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION SUN- MON...WEAK RIDGING SHOULD KEEP THE
WX MAINLY DRY (MAYBE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BUT LIMITED
COVERAGE). TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THUNDER DURING THE PERIOD. UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS WITH COVERAGE...BUT THERE WILL BE STORMS AROUND THE AREA
(SOME STRONG TO SEVERE).

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE RED
RIVER AND ON THE SHEYENNE RIVER IN NORTH DAKOTA DUE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL IN PAST WEEKS. SEVERAL LOCATIONS FINALLY FELL BELOW THEIR
RESPECTIVE FLOOD STAGES...INCLUDING THE SHEYENNE RIVER AT BOTH
KINDRED AND HARWOOD...AND THE BUFFALO RIVER AT DILWORTH. WEST
FARGO IS THE ONLY LOCATION ALONG THE SHEYENNE RIVER THAT IS STILL
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...AND THE ONLY OTHER FLOODING IN THE REGION IS
ON THE MAINSTEM RED RIVER.

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE
CURRENT AND FORECAST TRENDS. GENERALLY ONE THIRD INCH OF RAIN IS
FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THE AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT TRENDS OR FORECASTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

ROGERS/TG/GROCHOCINSKI

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 4, 5:22 AM CDT, 12 hours 7 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
522 AM CDT MON JUL 4 2011

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-051030-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-
GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-
WESTERN WALSH-
522 AM CDT MON JUL 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HELP SET OFF THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA...WITH THE
STORMS MOVING SOUTH AND EASTWARD AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN THE 3 PM
TO MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH STRONG WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.

JR

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 4, 4:04 PM CDT, 1 hour 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
404 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             ROCKLAKE                48.79N 99.25W
07/04/2011  E1.00 INCH       TOWNER             ND   PUBLIC

            PENNY TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL FELL IN ROCKLAKE.

&&

GROCHOCINSKI

Local storm report, Jul 4, 4:32 PM CDT, 57 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
432 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HAIL             2 SSE MUNICH            48.64N 98.82W
07/04/2011  E0.88 INCH       CAVALIER           ND   PUBLIC

&&

GROCHOCINSKI

Local storm report, Jul 4, 4:43 PM CDT, 46 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
443 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HAIL             2 S ALSEN               48.60N 98.71W
07/04/2011  E1.00 INCH       CAVALIER           ND   PUBLIC

            PEA TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

GROCHOCINSKI

Local storm report, Jul 4, 5:18 PM CDT, 11 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
518 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     HAIL             4 E NECHE               48.98N 97.46W
07/04/2011  E1.25 INCH       PEMBINA            ND   PUBLIC

            QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

&&

GROCHOCINSKI

Local storm report, Jul 4, 5:19 PM CDT, 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
519 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0507 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 N ST. VINCENT         49.00N 97.22W
07/04/2011  M67.00 MPH       KITTSON            MN   OTHER FEDERAL

            REPORTED BY CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

&&

WBARRETT

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 4, 4:38 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Kittson	52 min
Jul 4, 4:51 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Kittson	39 min
Jul 4, 5:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Roseau	55 min
Jul 4, 5:31 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	FGF	Kittson	13 hr
Jul 4, 6:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Roseau	61 min
Jul 4, 6:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Kittson, Marshall, Roseau	59 min
Jul 4, 6:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Marshall, Pennington, Polk, Red Lake	65 min
Jul 4, 6:42 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Beltrami, Lake of the Woods, Marshall, Roseau	63 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Minnesota, 2011 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.