River Flood Warning 40, NWS Grand Forks, ND

700 
WGUS83 KFGF 191602
FLSFGF
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
1102 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MINNESOTA...

  THIS IS A EXTENSION TO THE CURRENT WARNINGS FOR...
   SO BR BUFFALO RIVER AT SABIN AFFECTING CLAY COUNTY
   BUFFALO RIVER NEAR HAWLEY AFFECTING CLAY COUNTY
   TWO RIVERS RIVER NEAR HALLOCK AFFECTING KITTSON COUNTY

  THIS IS A FOLLOW-UP STATEMENT TO THE CURRENT WARNINGS FOR...
   BUFFALO RIVER NEAR DILWORTH AFFECTING CLAY COUNTY
   WILD RICE RIVER (MN) AT HENDRUM AFFECTING NORMAN COUNTY
   MARSH RIVER AT SHELLY AFFECTING NORMAN COUNTY
   SAND HILL RIVER AT CLIMAX AFFECTING POLK COUNTY
   RED LAKE RIVER AT CROOKSTON AFFECTING POLK COUNTY

.DOWNSTREAM OF THE BUFFALO RIVER...THE RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED 
TO REBOUND TO JUST ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE. RISE IN LEVELS ARE 
ATTRIBUTABLE TO SNOWFALL RUNOFF MELT STARTING TO TAKE PLACE. 
BOTH ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND. UPSTREAM 
AT DILWORTH...LEVELS WILL BE GRADUALLY DECREASING BUT STAYING
ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE. WILD RICE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO
BE AT MODERATE FLOOD STAGE AND IS DECREASING STEADILY. OTHER RIVER
LEVELS AT SAND HILL RIVER...MARSH RIVER...AND TWO RIVERS RIVER
HAVE THEIR LEVELS TRENDING DOWNWARD. RED LAKE RIVER AT CROOKSTON
IS ANTICIPATED TO REACH JUST ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE DUE TO 
SNOWFALL RUNOFF...A NEW WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED...IT IS EXPECTED 
TO DECREASE BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY.

THIS FORECAST IS FOR A 7 DAY PERIOD...THE HIGHEST STAGE INDICATED 
MAY NOT REFLECT THE CREST FOR THIS FLOOD EVENT. FORECASTS ARE 
UPDATED DAILY AND STAGE VALUES WILL CHANGE AS NEW WEATHER AND 
RIVER INFORMATION IS USED. THIS FORECAST INCLUDES ANY 
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN... 
 
 - DON'T TRAVEL THROUGH FLOODED AREAS!

 - PERSONS IN THE WARNED AREA NEED TO TAKE STEPS TO PROTECT LIFE 
   AND PROPERTY. IF NECESSARY MOVE TO A HIGHER AND SAFER LOCATION.

 - PERSONS LIVING IN THE RED RIVER BASIN SHOULD MONITOR RIVER 
   LEVELS WHILE THE RIVER IS IN...OR NEAR...FLOOD.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...GO TO THE AHPS/RIVER SECTION 
ON OUR WEB PAGE AT:      WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GRANDFORKS

&&

MNC107-210402-
/O.CON.KFGF.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/HNDM5.3.RS.000000T0000Z.110412T1930Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
1102 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE WILD RICE RIVER (MN) AT HENDRUM.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  8:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 31.1 FEET. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS...MODERATE 
  FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* MODERATE FLOOD STAGE IS 28.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 31.1 FEET BY THIS
  AFTERNOON.  ADDITIONAL RISES MAY BE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.
* IMPACT STATEMENT(S) - AT 31.0 FEET, WATER LEVELS REACH LOW STEEL ON 
  BOTTOM OF COUNTY HIGHWAY 25 BRIDGE.

&& 

DAILY 7 AM CDT/6 AM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE
(MONTH/DAY)         04/20  04/21  04/22  04/23  04/24  04/25  04/26

WILD RICE RIVER
  HENDRUM           31.0   30.9   30.8   30.6   30.5   30.3   29.9

$$

MNC119-210402-
/O.CON.KFGF.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLXM5.3.RS.110407T2257Z.110413T1415Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1102 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SAND HILL RIVER AT CLIMAX.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  9:45 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 29.1 FEET. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS...MODERATE 
  FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* MODERATE FLOOD STAGE IS 25.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO A STAGE OF 28.1 FEET 
  BY TOMORROW MORNING.
* THERE IS NO CREST FORECAST FOR THIS 7-DAY PERIOD.
* IMPACT STATEMENT(S) - AT 29.0 FEET, HWY 220 WEST OF CLIMAX IS CLOSED
  AND UNDERWATER.

&& 

DAILY 7 AM CDT/6 AM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE
(MONTH/DAY)         04/20  04/21  04/22  04/23  04/24  04/25  04/26

SANDHILL RIVER
  CLIMAX            28.1   27.3   26.7   26.5   26.4   26.4   26.3

$$

MNC027-210401-
/O.EXT.KFGF.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-110423T1800Z/
/SABM5.2.RS.110323T1918Z.110406T0530Z.110423T0600Z.NO/
1102 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SO BR BUFFALO RIVER AT SABIN.
* UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  9:45 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.6 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* IMPACT STATEMENT(S) - AT 12.0 FEET, FLOOD WARNING STAGE...MINOR. 
  VERY MINOR FLOODING.

&& 

DAILY 7 AM CDT/6 AM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE
(MONTH/DAY)         04/20  04/21  04/22  04/23  04/24  04/25  04/26

S. BUFFALO RIVER
  SABIN             12.1   12.4   12.3   11.9   11.4   11.0   10.7

$$

MNC027-210401-
/O.EXT.KFGF.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-110426T0000Z/
/HWYM5.2.RS.110325T2030Z.110412T1600Z.110425T1200Z.NO/
1102 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BUFFALO RIVER NEAR HAWLEY.
* UNTIL MONDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  9:45 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* IMPACT STATEMENT(S) - AT 7.0 FEET, FLOOD WARNING STAGE...MINOR.

&& 

DAILY 7 AM CDT/6 AM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE
(MONTH/DAY)         04/20  04/21  04/22  04/23  04/24  04/25  04/26

BUFFALO RIVER
  HAWLEY             6.9    7.2    7.4    7.3    7.2    7.0    6.8

$$

MNC027-210401-
/O.CON.KFGF.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/DILM5.2.RS.110322T1230Z.110406T0630Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1102 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BUFFALO RIVER NEAR DILWORTH.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  9:30 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.1 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS...MINOR 
  FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* MINOR FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 16.2 FEET BY 
  FRIDAY MORNING.  ADDITIONAL RISES MAY BE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.
* IMPACT STATEMENT(S) - AT 15.8 FEET, ROAD WEST OF GAGE BEGINS TO 
  FLOOD.GAGE NOT ACCESSABLE ABOVE 15 FEET.

&& 

DAILY 7 AM CDT/6 AM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE
(MONTH/DAY)         04/20  04/21  04/22  04/23  04/24  04/25  04/26

BUFFALO RIVER
  DILWORTH          15.8   15.9   16.2   16.2   15.7   14.9   14.0

$$

MNC107-210401-
/O.CON.KFGF.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/SHYM5.2.RS.110405T1000Z.110412T2000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1102 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MARSH RIVER AT SHELLY.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  9:30 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.9 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS...MINOR 
  FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* MINOR FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO A STAGE OF 16.3 FEET 
  BY TOMORROW MORNING.
* THERE IS NO CREST FORECAST FOR THIS 7-DAY PERIOD.


&& 

DAILY 7 AM CDT/6 AM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE
(MONTH/DAY)         04/20  04/21  04/22  04/23  04/24  04/25  04/26

MARSH RIVER
  SHELLY            16.3   15.8   15.4   15.2   14.8   14.4   14.0

$$

MNC119-210401-
/O.CON.KFGF.FL.W.0040.110420T0600Z-110424T0000Z/
/CRKM5.1.ER.110420T0600Z.110422T0600Z.110423T1200Z.NO/
1102 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE RED LAKE RIVER AT CROOKSTON.
* FROM LATE TONIGHT TO SATURDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT  9:45 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.9 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* IMPACT STATEMENT(S) - AT 15.0 FEET, FLOOD STAGE...MINOR.

&& 

DAILY 7 AM CDT/6 AM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE
(MONTH/DAY)         04/20  04/21  04/22  04/23  04/24  04/25  04/26

RED LAKE RIVER
  CROOKSTON         15.0   15.1   15.2   15.0   14.5   13.8   13.0

$$

MNC069-210401-
/O.EXT.KFGF.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-110424T2200Z/
/HLLM5.2.RS.110329T1915Z.110413T0500Z.110424T1000Z.NO/
1102 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TWO RIVERS RIVER NEAR HALLOCK.
* UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 10:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 803.9 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS...MINOR 
  FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* MINOR FLOOD STAGE IS 802.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  SUNDAY MORNING.
* THERE IS NO CREST FORECAST FOR THIS 7-DAY PERIOD.
* IMPACT STATEMENT(S) - AT 804.5 FEET, BACKUP AT REACH 2 DIKE, 
  CEMETERY ROAD AT 6TH ST. S. - SHUT STORM VALVE.

&& 

DAILY 7 AM CDT/6 AM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE
(MONTH/DAY)         04/20  04/21  04/22  04/23  04/24  04/25  04/26

TWO RIVERS RIVER
  HALLOCK          803.6  803.5  803.3  802.8  801.9  801.1  800.3

$$
ET/JK

657 
WGUS83 KFGF 200146
FLSFGF
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
846 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MINNESOTA...

  THIS IS A EXTENSION TO THE CURRENT WARNINGS FOR...
   THE SO BR BUFFALO RIVER AT SABIN AFFECTING CLAY COUNTY.
   THE BUFFALO RIVER NEAR HAWLEY AFFECTING CLAY COUNTY.
   THE MARSH RIVER AT SHELLY AFFECTING NORMAN COUNTY.
   THE RED LAKE RIVER AT CROOKSTON AFFECTING POLK COUNTY.
   THE TWO RIVERS RIVER NEAR HALLOCK AFFECTING KITTSON COUNTY.

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MINNESOTA...

  THIS IS A FOLLOW-UP STATEMENT TO THE CURRENT WARNINGS FOR...
   THE BUFFALO RIVER NEAR DILWORTH AFFECTING CLAY COUNTY.
   THE WILD RICE RIVER (MN) AT HENDRUM AFFECTING NORMAN COUNTY.
   THE SAND HILL RIVER AT CLIMAX AFFECTING POLK COUNTY.

.FLOODING CONTINUES ON SOME OF THE MINNESOTA TRIBUTARIES TO THE RED 
RIVER. WATER LEVELS HAVE BEEN DROPPING IN MANY AREAS...BUT AT LEAST 
MINOR RISES ARE FORECAST ON SOME OF THE RIVERS BY THIS WEEKEND. THE 
RISES THAT OCCUR WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE MELT OF RECENT SNOWFALL. 
FORECASTS CURRENTLY ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED PRECIPITATION INTO WEDNESDAY 
EVENING.

THE WEATHER PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT RAIN OR SNOW COULD OCCUR ACROSS A 
LARGE PART OF THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IF PRECIPITATION 
DOES OCCUR IN THAT TIME FRAME...IT COULD IMPACT RIVER LEVELS...SO 
THE CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

THIS FORECAST IS FOR A 7 DAY PERIOD...THE HIGHEST STAGE INDICATED 
MAY NOT REFLECT THE CREST FOR THIS FLOOD EVENT. FORECASTS ARE 
UPDATED DAILY AND STAGE VALUES WILL CHANGE AS NEW WEATHER AND 
RIVER INFORMATION IS USED. THIS FORECAST INCLUDES ANY 
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN... 
 
 - DON'T TRAVEL THROUGH FLOODED AREAS!

 - PERSONS IN THE WARNED AREA NEED TO TAKE STEPS TO PROTECT LIFE 
   AND PROPERTY. IF NECESSARY MOVE TO A HIGHER AND SAFER LOCATION.

 - PERSONS LIVING IN THE RED RIVER BASIN SHOULD MONITOR RIVER 
   LEVELS WHILE THE RIVER IS IN...OR NEAR...FLOOD.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...GO TO THE AHPS/RIVER SECTION 
ON OUR WEB PAGE AT:      WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GRANDFORKS

&&

MNC107-211346-
/O.CON.KFGF.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/HNDM5.3.RS.000000T0000Z.110412T1930Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
846 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE WILD RICE RIVER (MN) AT HENDRUM.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 8:00 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 30.9 FEET. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS...MODERATE 
  FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* MODERATE FLOOD STAGE IS 28.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL.
* THE FORECAST ACCOUNTS FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
  EVENING.
* RAIN OR SNOW MAY OCCUR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THAT COULD
  IMPACT RIVER LEVELS. THAT POTENTIAL WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED THE
  NEXT FEW DAYS.
* IMPACT STATEMENT - THE RIVER CONTINUES OVERFLOWING ITS BANKS UNTIL
  THE WATER FALLS BELOW 29.0 FEET.

&& 

DAILY 7 PM CDT/6 PM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE
(MONTH/DAY)         04/20  04/21  04/22  04/23  04/24  04/25  04/26

WILD RICE RIVER
  HENDRUM           30.7   30.6   30.4   30.2   30.1   29.8   29.4

$$

MNC119-211346-
/O.CON.KFGF.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLXM5.3.RS.110407T2257Z.110413T1415Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
846 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SAND HILL RIVER AT CLIMAX.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 7:45 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 28.7 FEET. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS...MODERATE 
  FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* MODERATE FLOOD STAGE IS 25.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE A SLOW FALL...THOUGH IT MAY BE
  STEADY FOR A TIME BY LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
* THE FORECAST ACCOUNTS FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
  EVENING.
* RAIN OR SNOW MAY OCCUR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THAT COULD
  IMPACT RIVER LEVELS. THAT POTENTIAL WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED THE
  NEXT FEW DAYS.
* IMPACT STATEMENT - HIGHWAY 75 NORTH OF CLIMAX REMAINS CLOSED AND
  UNDERWATER UNTIL THE RIVER FALLS BELOW 26.0 FEET.

&& 

DAILY 7 PM CDT/6 PM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE
(MONTH/DAY)         04/20  04/21  04/22  04/23  04/24  04/25  04/26

SANDHILL RIVER
  CLIMAX            27.6   26.9   26.5   26.4   26.4   26.4   26.1

$$

MNC027-211346-
/O.EXT.KFGF.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-110424T1800Z/
/SABM5.2.RS.110323T1918Z.110406T0530Z.110424T0600Z.NO/
846 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SO BR BUFFALO RIVER AT SABIN.
* UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 7:45 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE BACK ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY
  THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN RISE TO AROUND 12.4 FEET BY FRIDAY.
* THE FORECAST ACCOUNTS FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
  EVENING.
* RAIN OR SNOW MAY OCCUR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THAT COULD
  IMPACT RIVER LEVELS. THAT POTENTIAL WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED THE
  NEXT FEW DAYS.
* IMPACT STATEMENT - AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING OCCURS WHEN THE RIVER
  IS AT OR ABOVE 12.0 FEET.

&& 

DAILY 7 PM CDT/6 PM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE
(MONTH/DAY)         04/20  04/21  04/22  04/23  04/24  04/25  04/26

S. BUFFALO RIVER
  SABIN             11.5   12.2   12.4   12.1   11.6   11.0   10.6

$$

MNC027-211346-
/O.EXT.KFGF.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-110425T1200Z/
/HWYM5.2.RS.110325T2030Z.110412T1600Z.110425T0000Z.NO/
846 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BUFFALO RIVER NEAR HAWLEY.
* UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 7:45 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.9 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE BACK ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY
  THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE RISING TO AROUND 7.3 FEET BY FRIDAY.
* THE FORECAST ACCOUNTS FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
  EVENING.
* RAIN OR SNOW MAY OCCUR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THAT COULD
  IMPACT RIVER LEVELS. THAT POTENTIAL WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED THE
  NEXT FEW DAYS.
* IMPACT STATEMENT - AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING OCCURS WHEN THE RIVER
  IS AT OR ABOVE 7.0 FEET.

&& 

DAILY 7 PM CDT/6 PM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE
(MONTH/DAY)         04/20  04/21  04/22  04/23  04/24  04/25  04/26

BUFFALO RIVER
  HAWLEY             6.9    7.2    7.3    7.1    7.0    6.8    6.6

$$

MNC027-211346-
/O.CON.KFGF.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/DILM5.2.RS.110322T1230Z.110406T0630Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
846 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BUFFALO RIVER NEAR DILWORTH.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 7:30 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.7 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS...MINOR 
  FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* MINOR FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL BE NEARLY STEADY THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...
  AND THEN RISE BACK TO AROUND 16.0 FEET BY LATE WEEK.
* THE FORECAST ACCOUNTS FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
  EVENING.
* RAIN OR SNOW MAY OCCUR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THAT COULD
  IMPACT RIVER LEVELS. THAT POTENTIAL WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED THE
  NEXT FEW DAYS.
* IMPACT STATEMENT - AT 15.8 FEET...THE ROAD WEST OF THE GAGE BEGINS
  TO FLOOD.

&& 

DAILY 7 PM CDT/6 PM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE
(MONTH/DAY)         04/20  04/21  04/22  04/23  04/24  04/25  04/26

BUFFALO RIVER
  DILWORTH          15.5   15.8   16.0   15.8   15.2   14.3   13.4

$$

MNC107-211346-
/O.EXT.KFGF.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-110426T1200Z/
/SHYM5.2.RS.110405T1000Z.110412T2000Z.110426T0000Z.NO/
846 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MARSH RIVER AT SHELLY.
* UNTIL TUESDAY APRIL 26...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 7:30 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.4 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS...MINOR 
  FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* MINOR FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL.
* THE FORECAST ACCOUNTS FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
  EVENING.
* RAIN OR SNOW MAY OCCUR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THAT COULD
  IMPACT RIVER LEVELS. THAT POTENTIAL WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED THE
  NEXT FEW DAYS.
* IMPACT STATEMENT - AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING OCCURS WHEN THE RIVER
  IS AT OR ABOVE 14.0 FEET.

&& 

DAILY 7 PM CDT/6 PM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE
(MONTH/DAY)         04/20  04/21  04/22  04/23  04/24  04/25  04/26

MARSH RIVER
  SHELLY            15.8   15.4   15.1   14.8   14.4   14.0   13.6

$$

MNC119-211346-
/O.EXT.KFGF.FL.W.0040.110421T0300Z-110424T0000Z/
/CRKM5.1.ER.110421T0300Z.110422T0600Z.110423T1200Z.NO/
846 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE RED LAKE RIVER AT CROOKSTON.
* FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING TO SATURDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING 
  IS CANCELLED.
* AT  7:45 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.9 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE A SLOW RISE TO AROUND 15.5 FEET
  BY FRIDAY AS THE RECENT SNOWFALL MELTS AND RUNS OFF.
* THE FORECAST ACCOUNTS FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
  EVENING.
* RAIN OR SNOW MAY OCCUR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THAT COULD
  IMPACT RIVER LEVELS. THAT POTENTIAL WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED THE
  NEXT FEW DAYS.
* IMPACT STATEMENT - AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING OCCURS WHEN THE RIVER
  IS AT OR ABOVE 15.0 FEET.

&& 

DAILY 7 PM CDT/6 PM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE
(MONTH/DAY)         04/20  04/21  04/22  04/23  04/24  04/25  04/26

RED LAKE RIVER
  CROOKSTON         14.9   15.4   15.4   14.5   13.7   12.8   12.1

$$

MNC069-211345-
/O.EXT.KFGF.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-110425T0300Z/
/HLLM5.2.RS.110329T1915Z.110413T0500Z.110424T1500Z.NO/
846 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TWO RIVERS RIVER NEAR HALLOCK.
* UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  8:00 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 803.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS...MINOR 
  FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* MINOR FLOOD STAGE IS 802.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL.
* THE FORECAST ACCOUNTS FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
  EVENING.
* RAIN OR SNOW MAY OCCUR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THAT COULD
  IMPACT RIVER LEVELS. THAT POTENTIAL WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED THE
  NEXT FEW DAYS.
* IMPACT STATEMENT - THE RIVER REMAINS BANKFULL UNTIL IT DROPS BELOW
  802.0 FEET.

&& 

DAILY 7 PM CDT/6 PM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE
(MONTH/DAY)         04/20  04/21  04/22  04/23  04/24  04/25  04/26

TWO RIVERS RIVER
  HALLOCK          803.2  803.2  802.9  802.5  801.7  800.9  800.2

$$

CJS

597 
WGUS83 KFGF 201506
FLSFGF
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
1006 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MINNESOTA...
 
  THE SO BR BUFFALO RIVER AT SABIN AFFECTING CLAY COUNTY
  THE BUFFALO RIVER NEAR HAWLEY AFFECTING CLAY COUNTY
  THE RED LAKE RIVER AT CROOKSTON AFFECTING POLK COUNTY
  
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MINNESOTA...

  THIS IS A EXTENSION TO THE CURRENT WARNINGS FOR...
   THE BUFFALO RIVER NEAR DILWORTH AFFECTING CLAY COUNTY
   THE MARSH RIVER AT SHELLY AFFECTING NORMAN COUNTY
   THE TWO RIVERS RIVER NEAR HALLOCK AFFECTING KITTSON COUNTY

  THIS IS A FOLLOW-UP STATEMENT TO THE CURRENT WARNINGS FOR...
   THE WILD RICE RIVER (MN) AT HENDRUM AFFECTING NORMAN COUNTY
   THE SAND HILL RIVER AT CLIMAX AFFECTING POLK COUNTY

.THE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR CROOKSTON...SABIN AND HAWLEY ARE 
CANCELLED. PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED SNOW MELT RUNOFF HAS BEEN REMOVED
FROM THE FORECAST AS INFILTRATION INTO THE SOIL HAS OCCURRED. THUS
THE RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL RATHER THAN
SEE A MINOR RISE. OTHER POINTS IN MINNESOTA WILL SEE RIVER LEVELS 
CONTINUE TO RECEDE ALSO. 

THIS FORECAST IS FOR A 7 DAY PERIOD...THE HIGHEST STAGE INDICATED 
MAY NOT REFLECT THE CREST FOR THIS FLOOD EVENT. FORECASTS ARE 
UPDATED DAILY AND STAGE VALUES WILL CHANGE AS NEW WEATHER AND 
RIVER INFORMATION IS USED. THIS FORECAST INCLUDES ANY 
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN... 
 
 - DON'T TRAVEL THROUGH FLOODED AREAS!

 - PERSONS IN THE WARNED AREA NEED TO TAKE STEPS TO PROTECT LIFE 
   AND PROPERTY. IF NECESSARY MOVE TO A HIGHER AND SAFER LOCATION.

 - PERSONS LIVING IN THE RED RIVER BASIN SHOULD MONITOR RIVER 
   LEVELS WHILE THE RIVER IS IN...OR NEAR...FLOOD.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...GO TO THE AHPS/RIVER SECTION 
ON OUR WEB PAGE AT:      WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GRANDFORKS

&&

MNC107-220306-
/O.CON.KFGF.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/HNDM5.3.RS.000000T0000Z.110412T1930Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
1006 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE WILD RICE RIVER (MN) AT HENDRUM.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  8:00 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 30.8 FEET. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS...MODERATE 
  FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* MODERATE FLOOD STAGE IS 28.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO A STAGE OF 30.7 FEET 
  BY TOMORROW MORNING.
* THERE IS NO CREST FORECAST FOR THIS 7-DAY PERIOD.
* IMPACT STATEMENT(S) - AT 31.0 FEET, WATER LEVELS REACH LOW STEEL ON 
  BOTTOM OF COUNTY HIGHWAY 25 BRIDGE.

&& 

DAILY 7 AM CDT/6 AM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE    WED
(MONTH/DAY)         04/21  04/22  04/23  04/24  04/25  04/26  04/27

WILD RICE RIVER
  HENDRUM           30.7   30.5   30.0   29.6   29.1   28.6   28.1

$$

MNC119-220305-
/O.CON.KFGF.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLXM5.3.RS.110407T2257Z.110413T1415Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1006 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SAND HILL RIVER AT CLIMAX.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  8:45 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 28.1 FEET. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS...MODERATE 
  FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* MODERATE FLOOD STAGE IS 25.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO A STAGE OF 27.5 FEET 
  BY TOMORROW MORNING.
* THERE IS NO CREST FORECAST FOR THIS 7-DAY PERIOD.
* IMPACT STATEMENT(S) - AT 29.0 FEET, HWY 220 WEST OF CLIMAX IS CLOSED
  AND UNDERWATER.

&& 

DAILY 7 AM CDT/6 AM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE    WED
(MONTH/DAY)         04/21  04/22  04/23  04/24  04/25  04/26  04/27

SANDHILL RIVER
  CLIMAX            27.5   27.1   26.7   26.3   25.9   25.3   24.5

$$

MNC027-201536-
/O.CAN.KFGF.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-110425T1200Z/
/HWYM5.2.RS.110325T2030Z.110412T1600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1006 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE BUFFALO RIVER NEAR HAWLEY.
* AT  9:42 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.8 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 6.9 FEET.  THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL TO 6.7 FEET BY TOMORROW MORNING.
* IMPACT STATEMENT(S) - AT 7.0 FEET, FLOOD WARNING STAGE...MINOR.

&& 

DAILY 7 AM CDT/6 AM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE    WED
(MONTH/DAY)         04/21  04/22  04/23  04/24  04/25  04/26  04/27

BUFFALO RIVER
  HAWLEY             6.7    6.6    6.5    6.3    6.2    6.0    5.9

$$

MNC027-220305-
/O.EXT.KFGF.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110426T1800Z/
/DILM5.2.RS.110322T1230Z.110406T0630Z.110426T0600Z.NO/
1006 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BUFFALO RIVER NEAR DILWORTH.
* UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  8:30 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.4 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS...MINOR 
  FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* MINOR FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
* THERE IS NO CREST FORECAST FOR THIS 7-DAY PERIOD.
* IMPACT STATEMENT(S) - AT 15.0 FEET, GAGE NOT ACCESSABLE ABOVE 15 
  FEET.

&& 

DAILY 7 AM CDT/6 AM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE    WED
(MONTH/DAY)         04/21  04/22  04/23  04/24  04/25  04/26  04/27

BUFFALO RIVER
  DILWORTH          15.0   14.1   13.5   13.0   12.5   11.8   11.3

$$

MNC107-220305-
/O.EXT.KFGF.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-110424T1800Z/
/SHYM5.2.RS.110405T1000Z.110412T2000Z.110424T0600Z.NO/
1006 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MARSH RIVER AT SHELLY.
* UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  9:30 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.8 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS...MINOR 
  FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* MINOR FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
* THERE IS NO CREST FORECAST FOR THIS 7-DAY PERIOD.
* IMPACT STATEMENT(S) - AT 14.0 FEET, FLOOD WARNING STAGE...MINOR.

&& 

DAILY 7 AM CDT/6 AM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE    WED
(MONTH/DAY)         04/21  04/22  04/23  04/24  04/25  04/26  04/27

MARSH RIVER
  SHELLY            15.3   14.8   14.3   13.9   13.4   13.0   12.5

$$

MNC069-220305-
/O.EXT.KFGF.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-110424T1200Z/
/HLLM5.2.RS.110329T1915Z.110413T0500Z.110424T0000Z.NO/
1006 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TWO RIVERS RIVER NEAR HALLOCK.
* UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  9:00 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 803.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS...MINOR 
  FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* MINOR FLOOD STAGE IS 802.0 FEET.
* IMPACT STATEMENT(S) - AT 802.0 FEET, FLOOD WARNING STAGE...
  MINOR.CULVERTS WITH FLAPPERS CHECKED AND THE DIKE WALKED.BANKFULL 
  STAGE.

&& 

DAILY 7 AM CDT/6 AM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE    WED
(MONTH/DAY)         04/21  04/22  04/23  04/24  04/25  04/26  04/27

TWO RIVERS RIVER
  HALLOCK          802.9  802.7  802.3  801.7  801.1  800.4  799.7

$$

MNC027-201536-
/O.CAN.KFGF.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-110424T1800Z/
/SABM5.2.RS.110323T1918Z.110406T0530Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1006 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE SO BR BUFFALO RIVER AT SABIN.
* AT  8:45 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.1 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 11.5 FEET.  THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL TO 11.0 FEET BY TOMORROW MORNING.
* THERE IS NO CREST FORECAST FOR THIS 7-DAY PERIOD.
* IMPACT STATEMENT(S) - AT 11.0 FEET, FORECAST SERVICE STAGE.

&& 

DAILY 7 AM CDT/6 AM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE    WED
(MONTH/DAY)         04/21  04/22  04/23  04/24  04/25  04/26  04/27

S. BUFFALO RIVER
  SABIN             11.0   11.0   10.9   10.6   10.3   10.0    9.8

$$

MNC119-201536-
/O.CAN.KFGF.FL.W.0040.000000T0000Z-110424T0000Z/
/CRKM5.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1006 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE RED LAKE RIVER AT CROOKSTON.
* AT  8:45 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.7 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 14.8 FEET.  THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL TO 14.6 FEET BY TOMORROW MORNING.
* IMPACT STATEMENT(S) - AT 15.0 FEET, FLOOD STAGE...MINOR.

&& 

DAILY 7 AM CDT/6 AM CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:

 DATE                THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE    WED
(MONTH/DAY)         04/21  04/22  04/23  04/24  04/25  04/26  04/27

RED LAKE RIVER
  CROOKSTON         14.6   14.2   13.6   12.9   12.3   11.7   11.2

$$

JK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1010 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

.DISCUSSION...

RADAR RETURNS HAVE REMAIN STUBBORNLY TO THE WEST OF THE CWA SO FAR
THIS MORNING...AND WEBCAMS AT JAMESTOWN AND ELLENSDALE SHOW NOT
MUCH IS REACHING THE GROUND JUST ACROSS THE CWA BORDER YET. NAM
AND RUC ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON NOT BRINGING MUCH QPF INTO
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...BACKED OFF A BIT
ON HOW FAR POPS EXTEND TO THE EAST. TEMPS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA
HAVE BEEN RISING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...WITH 32 AT VALLEY
CITY AND 36 AT GWINNER. WILL CHANGE WEATHER MENTION TO RAIN/SNOW
MIX FOR THE REST OF THE DAY TODAY...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
HAVE SOME LINGERING SFC TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH 00Z.
THINK THAT MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LATER ON
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AS EXPECTED. MAY
STILL GET 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW AS MODELS ARE STILL PRETTY GOOD WITH
THE QPF...BUT WITH A LATER START WILL TAKE A SECOND LOOK THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES.

&&

.AVIATION...

CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR UNTIL THE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD GO DOWN TO MVFR FIRST IN
THE WEST AFTER 21Z AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SOME -RASN
AND THEN JUST -SN IS POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN TAF
SITES...BUT THINK THAT VIS SHOULD STAY ABOVE 2SM. THE MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE RED RIVER AND SEVERAL OF
ITS TRIBUTARIES IN NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA. CONDITIONS HAVE NOT
BEEN FAVORABLE FOR THE RECENT SNOWFALL TO MELT...BUT WE EXPECT
THAT TO HAPPEN BY LATE WEEK. THAT WILL CAUSE AT LEAST MINOR
ADDITIONAL RISES ON SOME OF THE TRIBUTARIES TO THE RED RIVER. THE
MAGNITUDE OF ANY RISES ON THE RIVERS WILL BE DETERMINED IN PART BY
THE SPEED OF THE SNOWMELT ONCE IT DOES START...AND BY THE AMOUNT
AND TYPE OF ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

ON THE SHEYENNE RIVER...THE RELEASES FROM BALDHILL DAM ARE NEAR 6500
CUBIC FEET PER SECOND. LOCAL RUNOFF WILL INCREASE BY LATE WEEK ONCE
THE SNOW MELTS. THUS...RECORD FLOODING IS STILL EXPECTED AT VALLEY
CITY...WHERE THE RIVER WILL BE NEAR 20.2 FEET THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
BEFORE IT INCREASES TO AROUND 21.0 FEET BY THE WEEKEND. AT LISBON
THE RIVER WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 21.5 AND 22.0 FEET BY LATE WEEKEND.
NOTE THAT ANY CHANGE TO THE RELEASES FROM BALDHILL DAM COULD RESULT
IN ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST RIVER LEVELS AT VALLEY CITY AND LISBON.

ON THE PEMBINA RIVER...MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AT WALHALLA
AND MAJOR FLOODING IS ONGOING AT NECHE. THE RIVER HAS RISEN RAPIDLY
DUE TO QUICK MOVEMENT OF WATER INTO THE ARE FROM MANITOBA. LOG JAMS
MAY OCCUR ON SOME PARTS OF THE RIVER...WHICH COULD CAUSE RAPID BUT
LOCALIZED FLUCTUATIONS IN WATER LEVEL. FINALLY...SINCE THE RIVER IS
SO HIGH...SOME OF THE WATER WILL BREAK OUT OF THE CHANNEL AND MOVE
INTO COULEES AND ACROSS FIELDS IN THE NECHE AREA.

THE RED RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING AT PEMBINA...WHERE IT IS EXPECTED
TO CREST BETWEEN 53.0 AND 54.0 FEET THE LAST WEEK IN APRIL. UPSTREAM
FROM WAHPETON TO OSLO...THE RIVER WILL SLOWLY FALL...OR PERHAPS HOLD
STEADY AT TIMES IN A FEW PLACES.

AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE OVERLAND FLOODING THAT IS
OCCURRING IN MANY AREAS...MAINLY NEAR THE RED AND SHEYENNE RIVERS AS
WELL AS ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2011/

SHORT TERM (TUE-THUR)...QPF/SNOW AMTS TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL BE
THE MAIN CHALLENGE. THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLE FOR
THUR/THUR NIGHT. 00Z MODELS INITIALIZED WITH MINIMAL ERRORS...AND
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HRS. AFTER 48 HRS...MODELS ALL HAVE A
SIMILAR IDEA...BUT WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES. A ECMWF/GEM/NAM/GFS
BLEND WILL BE USED.

TUE-WED...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES
NEEDED...MAINLY FOR SNOWFALL AMTS. MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS. THERE WILL BE SOME PHASING BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS. A 700MB LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL
PROPAGATE ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER...THEN
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO THE FA (AS THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST
STRENGTHENS AND TAKES OVER). PWATS WILL BE NEAR 0.40 INCHES. THIS
SCENARIO PRODUCES QPF VALUES OF 0.10-0.35 INCHES ALONG AND WEST OF
A DEVILS LAKE TO GRAND FORKS TO FERGUS FALLS LINE (WITH AMOUNTS
INCREASING WESTWARD). QPF AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES
EXPECTED EAST OF THIS LINE. P-TYPE WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE.
USING 925MB TEMPERATURES AS A GUIDE...MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT
WHERE HEAVIEST PRECIP OCCURS...P-TYPE WILL BE ALL SNOW (WEST OF
THE VALLEY). USING 10:1-12:1 SNOW RATIO LEADS TO 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL. THIS SNOW EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN AN 18-24 HR
PERIOD...AND NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED. WILL ISSUE ANOTHER
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THIS AREA TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS
CONSIDERING THE FLOOD FIGHT IN VALLEY CITY AND LISBON. ALONG AND
EAST OF THE VALLEY...WHERE LIGHTER PRECIP IS EXPECTED...EXPECT
MORE OF A MIX...POSSIBLY MORE RAIN THAN SNOW. EITHER WAY...QPF
AMTS OF 0.10 OR LESS WOULD LEAD TO SNOW AMTS OF AN INCH OR LESS.
SNOW TAPERS OFF WEDNESDAY...AND SKIES CLEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

THUR...AFTER A QUICK SFC HIGH PASSAGE RETURN FLOW COMMENCES.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARD NORMAL VALUES. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ALL
MODELS SHOW A SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME EXPECT MOSTLY LIQUID...WITH
SOME SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN BY FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE PATTERN
DURING THIS PERIOD. 00Z MODELS SHOW SIMILAR TIMING OF SYSTEMS
COMPARED WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST...NO CHANGES WILL BE REQUIRED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

JR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
422 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-201200-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-
GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-
WESTERN WALSH-
422 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE COOPERSTOWN...VALLEY CITY...AND
LISBON AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THIS AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TO THE EAST...MORE OF A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW. THIS MIX...AND LOWER PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS...WILL LEAD TO LESS SNOW ACCUMULATION ALONG AND EAST OF
THE VALLEY.

WIDESPREAD SPRING SNOW MELT AREAL AND RIVERINE FLOODING CONTINUES
ALONG THE RED RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD
WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR DETAILED INFORMATION ON SPECIFIC
LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW...LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION.

WIDESPREAD SPRING SNOW MELT AREAL AND RIVERINE FLOODING CONTINUES
ALONG THE RED RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD
WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR DETAILED INFORMATION ON SPECIFIC
LOCATIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TG