Tornado Warning 42, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1006 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

.UPDATE...

SENDING AN UPDATE MAINLY TO REFRESH WORDING...HAVE MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND WX GRIDS. EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SBCAPES AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG FOR
A LARGE PORTION OF WEST GEORGIA...EXTENDING UP TO THE METRO
AREA...WITH AT LEAST 500 SBCAPES EVERYWHERE. 0-1KM HELICITY
300-500 M2/S2 ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH STRETCHES FROM
EAST CENTRAL TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA AT AFD TIME. SPC HAS
EXPANDED THE HIGH RISK TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF METRO ATLANTA.
OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY LONG NIGHT AHEAD OF US STILL TEMPS NOT
FALLING AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST WITH THE FRONT STILL HANGING
BACK...SO HAVE UPDATED HOURLY TRENDS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO MIN
TEMPS AT THIS TIME. UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

TDP

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING A VERY WARM AND MOIST
AIR MASS INTO THE AREA...HELPING TO CREATE A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
THIS ENVIRONMENT HAS THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND EVEN TORNADOES OUT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY MORNING WHEN THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL USHER IN A DRIER AIR MASS
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY WHILE KEEPING THE DRIER AIR OVER THE
AREA. A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA WILL
PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH TO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
APPROACH NORTHERN GEORGIA MONDAY POSING THE NEXT THREAT OF MORE
SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. FAIR WEATHER TO BECOME DOMINATE
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS...BRINGING IN A DRIER AIR MASS.

FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE WITH FIRE DANGER STATEMENT ACROSS CENTRAL
GA...ALTHOUGH WINDS ACROSS SC/SE/EC SECTIONS MARGINAL. FUELS REMAIN
DRY IN THIS AREA AS THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE WIDESPREAD RAIN IN RECENT
WEEKS.

37

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
SUPERCELLS TO THE WEST WILL MOVE INTO THE ATL CSG AREA BY 04Z AND
INTO MCN/AHN AREA BETWEEN 05Z AND 06Z. WILL ADD WIND GUSTS TO
40KTS WITH THE TSRA IN ATL/CSG WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS IN
AHN/MCN. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA AND THIS WILL
BRING THE CONVECTION TO AN END. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTH SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER FROPA...BUT
INCREASE TO 15G25KT BY 17Z THU. CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR/IFR
TONIGHT...MAINLY WITH THE TSRA AND INCREASE TO VFR BY LATE
THURSDAY MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...
00Z UPDATE...
MEDUIM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          62  75  47  79 /  90  20  10   5
ATLANTA         58  72  50  76 /  90  10   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     55  70  44  73 / 100  10  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    58  70  43  77 / 100  10   5   5
COLUMBUS        65  75  50  80 /  90  20   5   5
GAINESVILLE     59  73  50  77 / 100  10  10   5
MACON           67  79  46  81 /  90  20  10   5
ROME            55  72  45  78 / 100  10   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  61  71  42  78 /  90  10   5   5
VIDALIA         70  82  55  79 /  50  30  10   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...
CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...
COWETA...CRAWFORD...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...
FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GREENE...
GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...
JASPER...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...
MONROE...MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...
OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...
PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...
TALBOT...TAYLOR...TOWNS...TROUP...UNION...UPSON...WALKER...
WALTON...WEBSTER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
628 AM EDT WED APR 27 2011

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-281030-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
628 AM EDT WED APR 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL GEORGIA TONIGHT.

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOVING ACROSS GEORGIA OVERNIGHT.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS FOR MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA...ESPECIALLY
FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW TORNADOES
AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
THIS EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS GEORGIA
TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE TODAY
AND WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL BE HIGHLY SHEARED. A LOW LEVEL JET OF
60KT OR MORE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
TORNADOES OVER MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT...AND
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION ESPECIALLY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.

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