Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
657 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2011

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW PUSHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGION. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...DEEP IN THE WARM
SECTOR... STRETCHING FROM SW LA INTO CENTRAL TN. LOCAL RADARS SHOW
A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NW GA...BUT
AREA INSTABILITIES REMAIN WEAK WITH SOME MID LEVEL CAPPING/WARM
AIR HELPING TO HINDER STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT. A COUPLE OF HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THIS FIRST LINE OF
CONVECTION... SUGGESTING THE INITIAL ACTIVITY WILL PUSH DOWN INTO
THE ATLANTA AREA BY EARLY EVENING (6-8PM)...THEN ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL GA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THEN MODELS SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND
PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODEL INSTABILITIES
REMAIN MODEST AT BEST WITH MAYBE 500-800 J/KG AFTERNOON CAPES
DECREASING TO UNDER 400 J/KG BY MIDNIGHT. THIS COUPLED WITH WEAKENING
UPPER SUPPORT AND LACK OF STRONG FRONTAL FORCING SUGGEST A LESSENING
CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...
EXPECT THE GREATER SEVERE STORM THREAT TO REMAIN WEST OF THE STATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND MAYBE WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH BEING THE MAIN STORM THREATS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...FOR NOW... WILL CONTINUE TO
PLAY IT SAFE AND WORD FOR A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY SEVERE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING... BUT SUSPECT WE CAN BACK OFF ON THIS
SLIGHT THREAT BY MID EVENING IF CURRENT WEAKENING TRENDS CONTINUE.
OTHERWISE...SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PUSH
SOUTH AND EAST OF NORTH GA LATE TONIGHT...THEN CENTRAL GA BY MID-
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE GA COAST BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE AND A
MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION... RETURNING
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS TO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THANKSGIVING DAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINANT THE AREA INTO SATURDAY. EXTENDED MODELS
ARE SIMILAR SHIFTING THE RIDGE EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MODELS SHOW DEEPER
MOISTURE SPREADING IN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...STILL PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A CHANCE OF MAINLY SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY TIME-FRAME AS INSTABILITIES APPEAR VERY WEAK
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER... A SHARP UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH COULD
WARRANT ADDING THE MENTION OF THUNDER IF PERSIST ON LATER MODEL
RUNS. FRONT PUSHES EAST BY EARLY MONDAY...BUT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
AND LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THIS FRONT...AND MAY NOT SEE SOME AREAS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
GET OUT OF THE 40S ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
RADAR INDICATES SHOWERS AND TSTMS EITHER MOVING OVER OR APPROACHING
THE ATLANTA METRO TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. THIS PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN GENERALLY MOVE
EAST OF THE TAF SITES. SURFACE MOISTURE FROM THE RAIN WILL HELP
QUICKLY FORM LOW CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FT UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE
AROUND 8AM. EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING AND DRYING CONDITIONS WITH A
GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND UP TO 25 KTS ON WEDNESDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT MEDIUM FOR TIMING OF
TSTM IMPACT TO ATL.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          58  69  38  65 /  90  20   5   5
ATLANTA         56  65  42  66 / 100  10   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     50  61  34  62 / 100  20   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    55  64  34  65 / 100  10   5   5
COLUMBUS        58  69  41  67 /  80  20   5   5
GAINESVILLE     55  66  39  64 / 100  20   5   5
MACON           61  71  37  68 /  80  40   5   5
ROME            52  64  35  66 / 100  10   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  54  65  33  65 / 100  10   5   5
VIDALIA         65  73  44  68 /  80  60   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

39

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
550 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2011

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-231045-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
550 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND
MUCH OF CENTRAL GEORGIA TONIGHT.

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA TONIGHT.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALABAMA
AND SPREAD INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA TONIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE
ACROSS EXTREME NORTH GEORGIA HAS STABILIZED SOMEWHAT AND THE RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS HAS DIMINISHED IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER...SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM CEDARTOWN TO GAINESVILLE...CAPES REMAIN IN THE 400 TO 800 RANGE
AND THIS IS ENOUGH FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
ON WEDNESDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST INFORMATION FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
713 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2011

GAZ021>023-032>034-043>045-230045-
713 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN IN
CHEROKEE...COBB...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FORSYTH...GWINNETT...HALL AND
FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM EST...

AT 709 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM HICKORY FLAT TO HANNAH...MOVING EAST AT 45
MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY AS THESE STORMS MOVE
ACROSS CHEROKEE...COBB...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FORSYTH...GWINNETT...
HALL AND FULTON COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM EST. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE CHATTAHOOCHEE HILL COUNTRY...BILL
ARP...HANNAH...DOUGLASVILLE...CHAPEL HILL...LITHIA SPRINGS...JIM R
MILLER PARK...SWEAT MOUNTAIN...SANDY PLAINS...WHITE WATER PARK...
AUSTELL...POWDER SPRINGS...MARIETTA...UNION HILL AND HICKORY FLAT.

&&

LAT...LON 3422 8442 3438 8366 3432 8365 3413 8382
      3403 8385 3368 8413 3364 8431 3365 8446
      3361 8446 3353 8482 3358 8482 3358 8489
TIME...MOT...LOC 0013Z 255DEG 39KT 3417 8436 3389 8455
          3360 8477

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
800 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2011

GAZ046-053>057-066>070-078-079-089>091-102-230130-
800 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 50 MPH WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN IN
TROUP...TALBOT...STEWART...SPALDING...ROCKDALE...PIKE...MUSCOGEE...
MERIWETHER...MARION...LAMAR...UPSON...CHATTAHOOCHEE...COWETA...
FAYETTE...HARRIS...HENRY AND CLAYTON COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM EST...

AT 755 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM CONLEY TO 17 MILES WEST OF
FLORENCE MARINA STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM EST. CONTINUE TO
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO...WEATHER.GOV OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS ON THESE STORMS.

&&

LAT...LON 3197 8504 3200 8507 3213 8507 3227 8490
      3232 8501 3243 8497 3260 8509 3313 8478
      3354 8451 3355 8446 3365 8444 3365 8418
      3361 8412 3378 8398 3374 8391 3367 8392
      3352 8405 3347 8395 3330 8410 3197 8484
TIME...MOT...LOC 0100Z 270DEG 37KT 3371 8427 3313 8465
          3205 8527