Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
201 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2011

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM. THE COLD FRONT HAS
SLOWED AND THE MODELS NOW BRING THE FRONT INTO NORTHWEST GA BETWEEN
00Z AND 03Z THIS EVENING AND OUT OF THE CWA BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z
WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND OFF THE GEORGIA
COAST BY 06Z WED AND OFF THE SC/NC COAST BY 12Z WED. A LARGE AREA
OF RAIN IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF
THE CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THEN EXIT THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT EVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL AL AND EXPECT MORE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS/TSTORMS COULD MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO NORTH GEORGIA AFTER 00Z WED. STRONG CAA...A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE VORT MAX MOVING TO OUR NORTHEAST
WILL PUSH WINDS INTO THE 15 TO 20 MPH CATEGORY WITH HIGHER GUSTS
ON WEDNESDAY. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS EXTREME NORTH
GEORGIA ON THURSDAY...AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A 20
POP ALONG OUR NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BY FRIDAY THE H5 LOW TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OVER EASTERN CANADA AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE DEEP SOUTH KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE
SOUTHEAST MID WEEKEND...BUT WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...HAVE NOT
INCLUDED POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
A RATHER COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD FALL TO IFR AND EVEN SOME LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. IN THE SHORT TERM...A WAVE FROM THE SW
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES AND WILL MOST LIKELY AFFECT
CSG...MCN...AND AHN. THESE SITES COULD SEE RAIN AND TS TODAY.
OVERNIGHT...AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW RA WILL OCCUR IN
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR RUMBLE OF THUNDER AT THE METRO SITES TODAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP AND TSRA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

26

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          60  61  43  62 /  90  40   5  10
ATLANTA         54  57  43  60 /  80  30   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     56  57  43  55 / 100  60  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    53  55  44  60 /  90  30  10  10
COLUMBUS        57  63  46  67 /  60  10   5   5
GAINESVILLE     57  58  42  58 /  90  40  10  10
MACON           58  64  42  65 /  70  10   5  10
ROME            55  56  44  61 / 100  30  10  10
PEACHTREE CITY  53  58  42  62 /  70  20   5   5
VIDALIA         63  67  45  67 / 100  20   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
320 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2011

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-190930-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
320 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND TO THE GEORGIA COAST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER MISSISSIPPI WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. BOTH FEATURES WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS IN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
40 MPH AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEA SIZED HAIL IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST GEORGIA THIS EVENING.

.DISCUSSION...
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE THE LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF
MOVES INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME
HEATING...ALONG WITH WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH. THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS STABILITY INCREASES.

ACROSS NORTHWEST GEORGIA...THE COLD FRONT OVER MISSISSIPPI WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA LATE THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS ALABAMA AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT...PEA SIZED HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS
THIS EVENING...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM ROME...TO CHATSWORTH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
501 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2011

GAZ011-182145-
501 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH
WINDS IN CHATTOOGA COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

AT 500 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WEST OF CHATTOOGAVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE NICKEL SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
CHATTOOGA COUNTY THROUGH 545 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF
THIS STORM INCLUDE CHATTOOGAVILLE...HOLLAND...MENLO...CLOUDLAND...
LYERLY...JAMES H. FLOYD STATE PARK...BERRYTON...SUMMERVILLE...TIDINGS
AND TRION. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED FOR WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...
HAIL LESS THAN THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3459 8525 3447 8516 3444 8518 3442 8524
      3440 8525 3438 8533 3432 8537 3429 8545
      3429 8547 3452 8552
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 237DEG 34KT 3432 8561