Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
305 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2011

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL GA THE MAIN CONCERN.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL GA INTO TONIGHT. OVERALL ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT MAY NOT COMPLETELY END DUE TO WEAK
SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY.

BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL GA FOR
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE BEST AREA WILL
GREATLY DEPEND ON HOW FAR S THE FRONT GETS OVER THE CWA AND WHEN.

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOOK TO DIMINISH FOR THURSDAY WITH THE
AFFECTS OF THE FRONT SHIFTING EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA...SO NO
POPS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. A DRY OR MOSTLY DRY COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO N GA THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...NO POPS WILL BE
IN THE FORECAST.

FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING 4 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TONIGHT GENERALLY FAVORING THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE....AND CLOSE TO
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 3 TO 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY GENERALLY TAKING A
MODEL BLEND.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE LONG TERM. A DRY/MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO/OVER
THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO BE NEAR TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MOST PLACES.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND MVFR/IFR MORNING FOG/HAZE PRESENT
LARGEST FORECAST CHALLENGES IN PERIOD...OTHERWISE VFR. TS EXPECTED TO
STAY SOUTH OF ATL TODAY...MCN AND CSG CONVECTIVE FOCUS AS FRONT
PASSES. WINDS TO STAY WESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...CONVECTIVE
VARIABLE GUSTINESS POSSIBLE. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER AT
ANY TAF SITE THIS AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON MORNING CIGS/VSBYS AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
GFS BUFR AND NAM BUFR DIFFERED SLIGHTLY...HRRR TIMING BEHIND.

10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          63  85  60  85 /  10  10  10   5
ATLANTA         65  82  62  82 /  20  20  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     55  76  55  76 /  10  10  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    60  83  56  83 /  10  10  10   5
COLUMBUS        68  87  65  86 /  40  30  10   5
GAINESVILLE     63  82  61  81 /  10  10  10   5
MACON           67  87  62  86 /  30  30  10   5
ROME            60  83  57  83 /  10  10  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  62  82  58  83 /  20  20  10   5
VIDALIA         67  87  66  88 /  30  40  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

BDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1130 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2011

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-281530-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1130 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY
AND SLOWLY MEANDER SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
AND HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY.

.DISCUSSION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED INTO THE PEACH STATE...LOCATED
ALONG A LINE FROM ATHENS TO LAGRANGE. BEST MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITIES WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND MOST LIKELY
AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
CARROLLTON TO WARRENTON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH
OF THIS LINE...BUT GENERALLY SOUTH OF A ROME TO ATHENS LINE. WITH
CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA...AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES BETWEEN -2 AND -4...A FEW STORMS
MAY BE STRONG...AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS...AND ALTHOUGH
MOST AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE 2 TO 3 INCHES OR
MORE...LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

10

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