Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
307 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2011

...HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SHIFT NORTH LATER THIS MORNING...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

A VERY WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE ANALYZED OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH ALABAMA WITH A WEAK TROUGH EMANATING FROM IT
THROUGH CSG AND AHN. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN THE SURFACE FOCUS FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BECAUSE THIS FEATURE IS FAIRLY STATIONARY...UPPER IMPULSES RIDING
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES IS ALLOWING FOR RE-DEVELOP
AND SUSTAINED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER ROUGHLY THE SAME LOCATIONS.
FORTUNATELY...MOST OF THESE AREAS CAN HANDLE THE HEAVY RAIN AND IN
MOST CASES NEED IT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THROUGH 12Z...EXPECT
BOUNDARY FOCUS TO SHIFT NORTHWARD SLOWLY. ALSO NOTE ZONE OF
ENHANCED ADIABATIC OMEGA SHIFTING NORTH AS WELL. WILL TARGET AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF AN ATL TO AHN LINE FOR HIGHEST POPS INITIALLY.
THIS ZONE HOWEVER IS PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO LIFT OUT QUICKLY
PRIOR TO 18Z WITH VERY LITTLE POPS OF NOTE EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL ACROSS THE AREA BUT DEBRIS CLOUDS
ALONG WITH A LACK OF ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY WILL RESULT IN LOW
END CHANCE POPS AT BEST.

THU LOOKS TO BE A RETURN TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN AS MOISTURE AGAIN
SURGES NORTHWARD WHILE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE AREA AND
LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE THE BEST SUPPORT INITIALLY ALONG WITH THE
HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT AND WILL INDICATE LIKELY POPS THERE.
COULD BE A SHARP CUTOFF TO POPS AS DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING COULD
SHIFT ACTIVITY QUICKLY TO THE SE BEFORE OUR NORTHERN SITES ARE
ABLE TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL.

BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT IN THE SHORT TERM IS WHETHER
THERE WILL BE A SECONDARY LINE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DEVELOPS
AS COLD POOL MOVES IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GFS AND ECMWF NOT TO KEEN
ON THIS SCENARIO WITH THE NAM12 MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE. WILL USE A
BLEND THIS FAR OUT...INDICATING MAINLY A LINE OF INSTABILITY
DRIVEN SHOWERS TO APPROACH LATE FRIDAY BUT LIMITING POPS TO CHANCE
CATEGORY AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

WILL NOT BE TOTALLY DRY ONCE DEEP UPPER LOW SETS UP OVER THE
EASTERN US FOR THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL SPOKES OF UPPER ENERGY
ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA. SHOULD ONLY PROVIDE LOW END SCT POPS AT
BEST AND STABILITY WILL BE HIGH...PRECLUDING THE MENTION OF ANY
TSRA IN THE GRIDS. TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE... MAIN WAVE OF PCPN LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA FROM S-N
AT 06Z SHOULD MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE TOWARD
12Z...THEN OUT OF THE AREA. LITTLE SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
AFT 12Z...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TSRA
IN MOIST...INCREASING UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THUS...AM FORCED TO
INCLUDE CB MOST TAF SITES FOR THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. CIGS
MVFR TO HIGH END IFR MOST TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY MOST SITES. SOME -RA/-DZ CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ATL- AHN. DRY SLOT WORKING NE
TOWARD MCN MAY OPEN THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY THERE FOR DENSE
GROUND FOG...WHICH IS ALREADY TRYING TO FORM. MAIN AREA OF PCPN
MAY LIFT NW OF MCN. THUS...HAVE OPTED FOR VV004 AND 2SM BR FOR
MCN. MAY BE WORSE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CIGS TO BECOME LOW END VFR
DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON...THEN RETURN TO MVFR BY OR AFT 06Z THU.
VSBYS MOSTLY MVFR THROUGH MID- MORNING...THEN VFR. WINDS BECOME
PROBLEMATIC THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. E-ESE FLOW IN PLACE NOW...BUT
PASSING OF FIRST SHORT WAVE AND WEAK INDUCED SFC LOW COULD LEAD TO
A PERIOD OF SSW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD BACK TO
THE SE-ESE AGAIN AFT SUNSET.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CEILING THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON VISIBILITY THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH ON WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH 18Z AND AFT 00Z...BUT MEDIUM TO LOW
18Z-00Z.
LOW ON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          80  66  81  65 /  60  20  60  50
ATLANTA         82  68  80  67 /  30  20  50  40
BLAIRSVILLE     73  58  76  60 /  70  20  50  40
CARTERSVILLE    80  63  80  63 /  30  20  40  30
COLUMBUS        88  71  82  68 /  30  20  60  40
GAINESVILLE     78  66  79  66 /  60  20  60  40
MACON           87  67  83  65 /  40  30  70  60
ROME            80  62  82  64 /  40  20  30  30
PEACHTREE CITY  82  63  80  62 /  30  20  50  40
VIDALIA         88  70  82  66 /  40  40  70  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

DEESE

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
428 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2011

GAZ067>069-079-210930-
428 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING IN TALBOT...PIKE...MERIWETHER AND UPSON COUNTIES UNTIL 530
AM EDT...

AT 416 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER FLINT HILL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1 INCHES ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
TALBOT...PIKE...MERIWETHER AND UPSON COUNTIES...INCLUDING AREAS
AROUND WOODLAND...FLINT HILL...WARM
SPRINGS...MANCHESTER...RALEIGH...SPREWELL BLUFF STATE
PARK...WOODBURY...HANNAHS
MILL...ATWATER...CREST...SUNNYSIDE...MOLENA AND IMLAC.

&&

LAT...LON 3314 8453 3296 8429 3274 8459 3288 8472
TIME...MOT...LOC 0826Z 221DEG 10KT 3282 8464