Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
801 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL RETROGRADING UPPER RIDGE WESTWARD DURING THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT AS I EXPECTED EARLIER...THEY ARE NOT PUSHING IT
AS FAR WEST AS PREVIOUS RUNS. ULTIMATE EFFECT IS THE SAME FOR NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WEAK COLD FRONT IN NORTH
GEORGIA CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH TONIGHT. CURRENTLY THE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDERWHELMING...BUT I AM NOT
COMFORTABLE DROPPING POPS TOO LOW THIS EVENING. I AM ACTUALLY GOING A
BIT ABOVE MOS POPS TONIGHT BUT NOT ABOVE CHANCE CATEGORY. DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE LINGERS ALONG OUR SOUTHERN BORDER TO KEEP
LOW POPS THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A GOOD BIT UNCERTAIN WITH RESPECT
TO TRACK OF IRENE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND EASTWARD
WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TREND OF
NOT RETROGRADING THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE AS FAR WESTWARD. THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE ALSO BUILDING THIS RIDGE BACK EAST SOONER. 00Z ECMWF
RUN FROM YESTERDAY ACTUALLY BRIDGED THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE AND
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE CAUSING IRENE TO STOP ITS RE-CURVE AND
VEER WEST INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA BRIEFLY. THANKFULLY THAT TREND WAS
SHORT LIVED...AND THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE ONCE AGAIN IN QUITE
REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THIS SYSTEM. GEORGIA IS
CURRENTLY BEYOND THE END OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK FROM THE TPC...BUT
CURRENT GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD PROVIDE MINIMAL EFFECT FOR ALL BUT
OUR FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. FOR NOW I AM MAKING NO CHANGES
TO THE CURRENT EXTENDED GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
CONVECTION WAS LATER THAN EXPECTED BUT TSRA HAS AFFECTED MOST OF
THE ATL AND SURROUNDING TAF SITES THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR THIS TO LINGER FOR ANOTHER 2 TO 3 HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD. ONLY CARRYING CB FOR MCN AND CSG AT THIS TIME BUT
CONVERGENCE ZONE COULD ALLOW DEVELOPMENT INTO THE LATE EVENING AND
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR TEMPO INCLUSION. OTHERWISE...DRIER
CONDITIONS TO INFILTRATE THE AREA WITH JUST SCT VFR CLOUDS
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TSRA ENDING TIME
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  93  67  93 /  40  10  10  10
ATLANTA         74  91  69  90 /  40  10   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     66  88  62  85 /  40  10   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    69  92  63  90 /  40  10   5  10
COLUMBUS        74  94  71  92 /  40  30  10  10
GAINESVILLE     72  90  68  89 /  40  10   5  10
MACON           72  93  69  92 /  40  30  20  10
ROME            69  92  63  90 /  30  10   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  69  91  64  90 /  40  10  10  10
VIDALIA         74  94  73  92 /  30  40  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
445 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-221200-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
445 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND INTO
CENTRAL GEORGIA. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH MOST
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE... WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 60
MPH.

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER IN CENTRAL
GEORGIA. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AS A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE STATE. CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 2000 AND 2500 J/KG AND SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR COULD COMBINE
TO PRODUCE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AT TIMES. THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GREATLY DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER... ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GEORGIA ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
730 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

GAZ021-022-033-220000-
730 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 45 MPH WINDS IN CHEROKEE...
FORSYTH AND FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

AT 725 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER MOUNTAIN PARK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
CHEROKEE...FORSYTH AND FULTON COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE MOUNTAIN PARK...
BIRMINGHAM...UNION HILL...HICKORY FLAT...MILTON...ROSWELL...
ALPHARETTA...BROOKWOOD AND JOHNS CREEK. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3409 8411 3407 8412 3405 8410 3403 8417
      3399 8420 3400 8421 3400 8425 3396 8427
      3397 8435 3401 8440 3404 8440 3407 8442
      3409 8453 3424 8440
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 304DEG 21KT 3411 8436

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
736 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

GAZ043-044-220015-
736 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS IN DOUGLAS AND
FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

AT 733 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER FAIRPLAY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
DOUGLAS AND FULTON COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE FAIRPLAY...BILL ARP...HANNAH...
CHATTAHOOCHEE HILL COUNTRY AND PALMETTO. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3373 8490 3361 8460 3351 8468 3351 8482
      3355 8483 3358 8482 3358 8491 3373 8491
TIME...MOT...LOC 2336Z 302DEG 10KT 3361 8487

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
828 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

GAZ034-220100-
828 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 45 MPH WINDS IN GWINNETT COUNTY
UNTIL 900 PM EDT...

AT 824 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER GRAYSON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
GWINNETT COUNTY THROUGH 900 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF
THIS STORM INCLUDE HARBIN...ROSEBUD...SNELLVILLE...LAWRENCEVILLE...
GRAYSON AND DACULA. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3401 8387 3400 8387 3399 8384 3393 8380
      3391 8382 3389 8385 3380 8397 3388 8414
      3406 8401
TIME...MOT...LOC 0028Z 299DEG 25KT 3388 8390