Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
142 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1051 AM EDT THU AUG 11 2011/

UPDATE...
12Z SOUNDING SHOWS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. ANOTHER MCS IS TRACKING INTO ALABAMA TODAY BUT LIKE
YESTERDAY IT IS WEAKENING. BIG DIFFERENCE IS IT IS ALREADY FURTHER
EAST THAN YESTERDAY SO MAY SEE MORE IMPACTS ACROSS THE CWA.
REFLECTIVITY OUTPUT FROM MODELS ALL INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DIFFER ON
LOCATION. THINK BEST CHANCE THOUGH IS WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY IS LOCATED WITH AROUND
1000 J/KG OF MU CAPE. CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT DROPPED IT TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA...ALONG WITH BORDER WITH THE
COLUMBIA OFFICE. MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS.

TEMPS ARE WARMING UP QUICKER THAN FORECAST BUT STILL THINK HIGHS
ARE ON TRACK. DEW POINTS ARE ALSO HIGHER THAN FORECAST SO
INCREASED THEM FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 747 AM EDT THU AUG 11 2011/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED 417 AM EDT THU AUG 11 2011/
GEORGIA REMAINS IN A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH A SERIES OF IMPULSES SLIDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA. TIMING
ON ANY PARTICULAR ONE IS QUESTIONABLE...SO HAVE GENERALLY KEPT
CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE CWA...WITH LOWEST POPS AFTER 06Z
EACH NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE A STRONGER SHORT WAVE FOR SATURDAY BUT AT
THIS POINT CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK OKAY. TEMPERATURES STILL HOT
WITH HIGHS AGAIN MID TO UPPER 90S. WITH LOWER DEW POINTS...HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET. AN EAST OR SOUTHEAST FLOW ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD BRING HIGHS DOWN A BIT...BUT STILL LOW
OR MID 90S MOST AREAS EXCEPT UPPER 80S MOUNTAINS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED 417 AM EDT THU AUG 11 2011/
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS DURING THE WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THIS COULD PUSH A FRONT THROUGH THE
CWA AND HAVE INDICATED SOME DRYING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY SHOWS SOME MOISTURE INCREASE AND WEAK IMPULSES MOVING
ACROSS THE CWA...SO HAVE INTRODUCED LOW POPS AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOW A TREND TOWARD 80S TO LOWER 90S.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST GEORGIA...HAVE
CONTINUED CB IN THE CLOUD GROUP FOR ALL BUT AHN TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. EXPECT SOME LOW VFR TO MVFR VSBY FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY AT
MCN AND AHN...THOUGH IT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE RAIN FALLS. WESTERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT POSSIBLY BRIEF NORTHEASTERLY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CB AGAIN IN THE CLOUD GROUP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON WIND SPEEDS...MEDIUM TO LOW ON POTENTIAL WIND SHIFT
FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGH ON CIGS/VSBY.
LOW TO MEDIUM ON CONVECTION.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          97  69  94  70 /  30  20  20  20
ATLANTA         95  72  93  73 /  30  20  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     89  64  89  63 /  30  20  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    94  64  94  64 /  30  20  20  20
COLUMBUS        96  74  96  73 /  30  20  20  20
GAINESVILLE     95  71  92  70 /  30  20  20  20
MACON           97  71  96  70 /  30  20  20  20
ROME            94  65  94  65 /  30  20  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  94  68  93  66 /  30  20  20  20
VIDALIA         97  74  97  74 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
532 AM EDT THU AUG 11 2011

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-120945-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
532 AM EDT THU AUG 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ENTERS THE REGION.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS DOWN INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD. MOST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED OVER ALABAMA...THOUGH
MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITIES OVER
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. PROVIDED ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY...THIS INSTABILITY IS ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
125 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2011

GAZ066-078-111815-
125 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN TROUP AND
HARRIS COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

AT 122 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER WEST POINT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. IN
ADDITION...LIGHTNING DETECTION SYSTEMS INDICATE NUMEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS TROUP AND HARRIS
COUNTIES...INCLUDING AREAS AROUND WEST POINT...WHITESVILLE-PINE
LAKE...JONES CROSSROADS...MOUNTAIN HILL...MULBERRY
GROVE...HAMILTON...PINE MOUNTAIN VALLEY...FORTSON AND CATAULA.
RESIDENTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD STAY INDOORS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES
AND TELEPHONES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

&&

LAT...LON 3295 8521 3295 8518 3279 8472 3258 8485
      3258 8490 3261 8491 3261 8494 3270 8513
      3273 8512 3275 8515 3278 8513 3281 8517
      3284 8516 3287 8519
TIME...MOT...LOC 1724Z 297DEG 23KT 3284 8517

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