Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
742 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2011/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLIER OVERCAST CLOUD COVER PUT A DAMPER ON THINGS TODAY. SATELLITE
INDICATING CLOUDS NOW HIGHLY BROKEN UP WITH PLENTY OF DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING GOING ON. STILL TIME FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE
EXCEPTION TO THAT COULD BE PORTIONS OF NW GA THAT COULD COME UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A GENERALLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NIGHT.

THE RATHER PREDOMINATE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA LOOKS TO
BECOME MORE ENHANCED ON MONDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY AND A SUMMERTIME AIRMASS WILL GIVE RISE TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CENTRAL GA LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER TARGET THAN N GA. THE MODELS ARE AT
LEAST HINTING THAT CONVECTION COULD BE INFLUENCED BY WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCES. THE GFS AND NAM ARE NOT CONSISTENT WITH THE
FORECASTING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

THE SURFACE TROUGH BECOMES MORE ENHANCED FOR TUESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL
GA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO N GA. THIS WILL GREATLY AID THE
CONVECTIVE PROCESS MAKING N GA A LITTLE BETTER TARGET FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS AS THE POTENTIAL FOR GENERALLY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES TO
MOVE OVER THE AREA CONTINUES. HIGHER POPS COULD BE NEEDED THIS
DAY...ESPECIALLY FOR N GA.

A HOT AIRMASS CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO GREATLY DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY
AT THE START OF THE DAY...AND HOW MUCH OVERALL CONVECTION. THE HEAT
ADVISORY WILL BE CONTINUED FOR MONDAY AND EXTENDED A FEW COUNTIES N
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE STATE.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THE
LOCATION OF THIS FRONT AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE THERE IS WILL GREATLY
DETERMINE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT MODELS INDICATING
A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRYING TAKING PLACE THAT WOULD MINIMIZE THE OVERALL
AMOUNT OF CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME...PARTS OF CENTRAL GA LOOK TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCES WITH GENERALLY 20-30 POPS ACROSS THE AREA.
AFTER WEDNESDAY...THINGS WILL DEPEND ON WHATS LEFT OF THE
FRONT...HOW MUCH MOISTURE THERE IS...INSTABILITY AND ANY POSSIBILITY
FOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER FRONT COULD GET
INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATING A MUCH
MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA.

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 08-07

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     101 2007     75 1904     76 1918     58 2004
                1930                                1948
                1925                                1915
   KATL     101 1980     72 1904     78 1980     60 1948
                1935
   KCSG     100 1980     79 1974     77 2007     58 1950
                                        2002
   KMCN     100 2007     81 1904     76 1987     60 1950
                1980                    1943

RECORDS FOR 08-08

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 2007     75 1989     75 2007     57 2004
                                        1987
                                        1981
   KATL     102 1980     71 1904     82 2007     61 2004
                            1897                    1904
   KCSG     100 2006     81 1989     78 1999     61 1950
   KMCN     102 2007     75 1897     77 2007     56 2004
                                        1907

RECORDS FOR 08-09

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     105 2007     74 1997     78 2007     60 2004
                                                    1989
   KATL     103 2007     73 1997     79 2007     59 1976
   KCSG     100 2007     80 1997     79 2007     61 1950
   KMCN     103 2007     77 1989     78 2007     61 2004
                                                    2002

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
AREA OF CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF ATL WORKING ITS WAY TOWARD AHN...
HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO TSRA AT AHN FROM 00-01Z. OTHERWISE CB REMAINS
IN THE TAFS UNTIL 03Z. CONTINUED FEW007 10-14Z MONDAY MORNING BUT
LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING. CB AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON STARTING 18Z. WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...
SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT AND PICKING UP AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON WINDS AND VSBY.
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON CIGS...LOW ON DEVELOPMENT OF FEW007 MONDAY MORNING.
MEDIUM ON OCCURRENCE OF CONVECTION...LOW ON IMPACTS TO ATL.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  99  75  95 /  40  30  20  50
ATLANTA         75  94  76  92 /  20  30  20  50
BLAIRSVILLE     70  90  71  84 /  40  30  30  50
CARTERSVILLE    72  93  73  92 /  20  30  20  50
COLUMBUS        76  94  75  94 /  20  40  20  40
GAINESVILLE     74  94  75  91 /  40  30  20  50
MACON           74  97  75  96 /  20  40  20  40
ROME            72  93  74  92 /  20  30  20  50
PEACHTREE CITY  72  94  73  92 /  20  30  20  50
VIDALIA         74  95  76  96 /  20  50  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CLARKE...CRAWFORD...
CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...
HOUSTON...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...MACON...
MADISON...MARION...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...MUSCOGEE...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PEACH...PULASKI...PUTNAM...SCHLEY...STEWART...
SUMTER...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...
TWIGGS...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...
WILKES...WILKINSON.

&&