Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
357 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2011

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SOMEWHAT DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR REMAINS OVER NORTH GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. EVEN SO...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SO FOR THIS EVENING HAVE
CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE CWA EXCEPT CHANCE GENERALLY CSG
TO MCN AND SOUTH THIS EVENING. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BUT THE CENTER GETS PUSHED TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST BY FRIDAY AS RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP. IN ADDITION...MODELS
ARE SHOWING AN EASTERLY WAVE TRACKING UNDER THE RIDGE INTO THE
LOUISIANA COAST AREA BY FRIDAY. IN GENERAL...WITH WEAK UPPER
DYNAMICS ACROSS OUR CWA AND INCREASING MOISTURE A DIURNAL PATTERN
FOR POPS LOOKS REASONABLE. HAVE FOLLOWED MAV/MET TEMPERATURES WITH
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS. HEAT INDEX VALUES REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE GETS PUSHED WESTWARD DURING THE LONG TERM AS TROUGH
DEEPENS ALONG THE EASTERN STATES. DIURNAL POPS LOOK OKAY FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PUSH A FRONT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA DURING TUESDAY. THIS WOULD MEAN A DRYING
TREND FOR THE CWA BY THE LAST DAY OF THE EXTENDED. AT THIS TIME I
AM RELUCTANT TO REMOVE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY DUE TO POSSIBLE TIMING
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
LOW CIGS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA HAVE
SCATTERED OUT. HAVE INCLUDED CB TO START FOR CSG AND MCN...BUT
HOLD OFF ON NORTHERN TAFS UNTIL 20Z. WINDS SE EARLY BUT SHIFTING
S TO SW AFTER ABOUT 02Z...BUT LESS THAN 5KT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT IFR CIGS AT MCN AND CSG THURSDAY MORNING SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING...AND HAVE FEW010 AT NORTHERN TAFS FOR POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS
MOVING NORTH. MVFR VSBY FOR ALL TAFS THURSDAY MORNING. CIGS/VSBY
PROBLEMS DISSIPATING AFTER 14-15Z. CB IN ATL CLOUD GROUP STARTING
18Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON WIND SPEEDS...MEDIUM ON TIMING OF WIND SHIFT.
HIGH ON VSBY.
MEDIUM ON POSSIBLE FEW-SCT IFR THURSDAY MORNING.
MEDIUM ON OCCURRENCE OF CONVECTION TODAY...LOW ON IMPACTING ATL.
MEDIUM ON CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  94  72  95 /  20  20  20  20
ATLANTA         74  92  75  94 /  20  20  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     64  90  65  90 /  20  20  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    70  95  69  95 /  20  20  20  20
COLUMBUS        73  93  75  96 /  20  40  20  20
GAINESVILLE     73  93  73  94 /  20  20  20  20
MACON           73  94  73  96 /  20  30  20  20
ROME            70  94  71  94 /  20  20  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  70  92  71  94 /  20  20  20  20
VIDALIA         73  94  76  95 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

41

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
311 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2011

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-281200-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
311 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THE
MORE FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE GENERALLY
SOUTH OF CARROLLTON TO ATHENS LINE...AND ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY CAN OCCUR AT ANYTIME... THE GREATER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOON AND 10 PM.

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND MOST OF CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY. AS CAPE
VALUES INCREASE INTO THE 2000 TO 2500 RANGE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. THE
SLOW MOVING STORMS COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES... WITH BRIEF PONDING OF
WATER ACROSS A FEW LOW LYING...FLOOD PRONE AREAS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
536 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2011

GAZ089-090-272215-
536 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN MUSCOGEE
AND WESTERN CHATTAHOOCHEE COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

AT 523 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING ALONG THE
CHATTAHOOCHEE...MUSCOGEE LINE...SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBUS... MOVING WEST
AT 10 MPH.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS THEY MOVE
WEST THROUGH THE COLUMBUS METROPOLITAN AREA. MINOR FLOODING OF
LOW-LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
HOUR. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IS ALSO LIKELY.  MOTORISTS SHOULD
USE CAUTION AS INTENSE RAINFALL WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES.

&&

LAT...LON 3261 8505 3248 8470 3225 8484 3233 8501
      3235 8501 3236 8499 3243 8497 3246 8501
      3251 8501 3259 8508 3261 8508
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 105DEG 10KT 3241 8478