Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
339 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2011

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SURFACE TROUGH AND WEAK IMPULSES
SKIRTING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY-NORTH GEORGIA AREA REMAINING
THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. IMPULSE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA HAS ENHANCED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHEST POPS THERE INTO THE EVENING. SUSPECT WE
WILL SEE MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY BEGIN TO DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET
...BUT MODELS HINTING AT SOME LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE EXTREME
NORTH WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE TROUGH IN THE AREA AND
SOME WEAK UPPER SUPPORT...THOUGH COVERAGE MAY NOT BE AS GOOD AS
TODAY. BEST CHANCES CONTINUING OVER THE NORTH WHERE BETTER UPPER
SUPPORT NOTED. HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUING AND COULD SEE HEAT
INDICES APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY OVER EAST CENTRAL
GEORGIA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY
NOW...BUT WITH LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSE LOOK.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST GFS RUN CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN
A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND A COLD FRONT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. GFS STILL
TRYING TO BRING THE FRONT INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME. CURRENT FORECAST WITH CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK OK...BUT IF
LATER RUNS SUPPORT IT HIGHER POPS MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT POSSIBLY IN THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
CONVECTION AFFECTING METRO ATL TAF SITES ALREADY...POSSIBILITY SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WESTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 10KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT DURING
CONVECTION WHERE SOME VARIABILITY FROM THE NORTHEAST IS POSSIBLE
WITH GUSTS AROUND 15KT. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT
DURING CONVECTION AND DUE TO OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG AND HAZE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON VSBYS AND TIMING/LOCATION OF CONVECTION.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
PREFERRED NAM OVER GFS.

10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  98  74  96 /  30  30  30  30
ATLANTA         75  94  76  93 /  30  30  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     70  89  71  87 /  30  40  30  30
CARTERSVILLE    70  95  72  93 /  30  40  30  30
COLUMBUS        74  95  74  95 /  30  30  30  20
GAINESVILLE     73  95  75  94 /  30  30  30  30
MACON           74  97  74  96 /  20  30  30  20
ROME            73  96  73  93 /  30  40  30  30
PEACHTREE CITY  71  93  72  92 /  30  30  30  20
VIDALIA         76  97  76  96 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

49

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
459 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2011

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-210900-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
459 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ALSO...HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105 ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON.

.SYNOPSIS...
AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER
EASTERN TENNESSEE WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO NORTH GEORGIA. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.OTHER HAZARDS...
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 100 TO 105 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

.DISCUSSION...
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE THROUGH TONIGHT.
LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM TUESDAYS CONVECTION WILL BE THE
MAIN FOCAL POINTS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WHICH COULD BE JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. AS TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE 90S THIS AFTERNOON...CAPES WILL INCREASE TO OVER
2000 WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 90S ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S AND THIS WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE. THE ONLY AREA ESCAPING THE HEAT WILL
BE THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
428 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2011

GAZ072-202100-
428 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING IN JONES
COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 425 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER BRADLEY...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

LIGHTNING DETECTION SYSTEMS INDICATE NUMEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS JONES COUNTY...INCLUDING AREAS AROUND
CLINTON...BRADLEY...BLOUNTSVILLE...GRAY...WAYSIDE...ETHRIDGE AND
ROUND OAK. RESIDENTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD STAY INDOORS. ELECTRICAL
APPLIANCES AND TELEPHONES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

&&

LAT...LON 3297 8355 3314 8373 3316 8368 3318 8348
      3318 8344 3313 8341 3305 8340
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 147DEG 6KT 3310 8353

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
430 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2011

GAZ027-036-038-202130-
430 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY RAIN IN OGLETHORPE...
MADISON AND CLARKE COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 425 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER WATSON MILL BRIDGE STATE PARK...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS OGLETHORPE...MADISON AND CLARKE COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM EDT.
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE HARRISON...POINT
PETER...VESTA...PAOLI...CARLTON...WATSON MILL BRIDGE STATE PARK...
COMER...DANIELSVILLE...SANDY CROSS...COLBERT...SMITHONIA...DIAMOND
HILL...NEESE...LEXINGTON AND HULL. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS
AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES ACROSS
OGLETHORPE...MADISON AND CLARKE COUNTIES...INCLUDING AREAS AROUND
HARRISON...POINT PETER...VESTA...PAOLI...CARLTON...WATSON MILL BRIDGE
STATE PARK...COMER...DANIELSVILLE...SANDY CROSS...COLBERT...
SMITHONIA...DIAMOND HILL...NEESE...LEXINGTON AND HULL.
ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS
AND STREAMS ARE SUBJECT TO MINOR FLOODING.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
OGLETHORPE...MADISON AND CLARKE COUNTIES...INCLUDING AREAS AROUND
HARRISON...POINT PETER...VESTA...PAOLI...CARLTON...WATSON MILL
BRIDGE STATE PARK...COMER...DANIELSVILLE...SANDY
CROSS...COLBERT...SMITHONIA...DIAMOND HILL...NEESE...LEXINGTON AND
HULL. DRIVERS SHOULD USE CAUTION AS INTENSE RAINFALL WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IS ALSO LIKELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3371 8316 3377 8329 3382 8330 3385 8328
      3387 8336 3393 8342 3393 8351 3404 8336
      3404 8337 3424 8314 3419 8308 3417 8309
      3415 8305 3406 8299 3400 8288
TIME...MOT...LOC 2030Z 045DEG 12KT 3404 8308

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
431 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2011

GAZ047-202100-
431 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY RAIN IN WALTON COUNTY UNTIL
500 PM EDT...

AT 429 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER BETWEEN...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS
AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES ACROSS
WALTON COUNTY...INCLUDING AREAS AROUND WINDSOR...NICHOLASVILLE...
PANNELL...MONROE...BOLD SPRINGS...BETWEEN...YOUTH...JERSEY AND WALNUT
GROVE. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF
CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE SUBJECT TO MINOR FLOODING.

&&

LAT...LON 3379 8364 3365 8376 3374 8391 3377 8397
      3379 8397 3391 8381
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 040DEG 10KT 3378 8380

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
444 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2011

GAZ019-020-030-031-041-202130-
444 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY RAIN IN POLK...PAULDING...
BARTOW...FLOYD AND HARALSON COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 438 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR COOSA TO NORTH OF
BUCHANAN...MOVING WEST AT 35 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS POLK...PAULDING...BARTOW...FLOYD AND HARALSON COUNTIES THROUGH
530 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
UNION...YORKVILLE...EUBANK LAKE...BREMEN...WACO...BUCHANAN...
DRAKETOWN...FELTON...ANTIOCH...SENEY...FISH CREEK...VAN WERT...
ROCKMART...ARAGON AND CEDARTOWN. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS
AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES ACROSS
POLK...PAULDING...BARTOW...FLOYD AND HARALSON COUNTIES.
ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS
AND STREAMS ARE SUBJECT TO MINOR FLOODING.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
POLK...PAULDING...BARTOW...FLOYD AND HARALSON COUNTIES. DRIVERS
SHOULD USE CAUTION AS INTENSE RAINFALL WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES.
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IS ALSO LIKELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3429 8547 3428 8539 3438 8533 3443 8518
      3458 8511 3459 8508 3455 8506 3454 8509
      3446 8511 3440 8509 3439 8496 3441 8465
      3408 8466 3408 8473 3403 8474 3379 8473
      3377 8489 3381 8504 3372 8506 3365 8533
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 076DEG 29KT 3425 8537 3387 8522
          3354 8535

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
513 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2011

GAZ059-202145-
513 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING IN JASPER
COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

AT 512 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER MONTICELLO...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS
AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES ACROSS
JASPER COUNTY...INCLUDING AREAS AROUND PIEDMONT...HILLSBORO...
ADGATEVILLE...MONTICELLO...CALVIN...MCELHENEYS CROSSROADS AND TURTLE
COVE. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF
CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE SUBJECT TO MINOR FLOODING.

&&

LAT...LON 3317 8360 3319 8381 3320 8383 3321 8383
      3325 8381 3327 8383 3333 8384 3334 8386
      3337 8386 3340 8383 3341 8385 3342 8380
      3335 8355
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 102DEG 10KT 3328 8368

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
538 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2011

GAZ048-049-059-202215-
538 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING IN NEWTON...
MORGAN AND JASPER COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

AT 537 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER FARRAR...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

LIGHTNING DETECTION SYSTEMS INDICATE NUMEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS NEWTON...MORGAN AND JASPER COUNTIES...
INCLUDING AREAS AROUND REESE...CALVIN...FARRAR...SHADY DALE...
NEWBORN...EUDORA...MANSFIELD...NORTH ALCOVY...BRICK STORE...ROCKY
PLAINS...STARRSVILLE...STEWART...PORTERDALE...OXFORD AND COVINGTON.
RESIDENTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD STAY INDOORS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES AND
TELEPHONES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

&&

LAT...LON 3334 8357 3338 8387 3342 8391 3349 8395
      3368 8387 3351 8350
TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 104DEG 9KT 3346 8368