Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
747 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AT AFD TIME. HI-RES REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS INDICATE
THAT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS THROUGH 00Z TONIGHT. MODERATE INSTABILITY REMAINS
ACROSS THE AREA...AVERAGING BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG EXCEPT IN
EXTREME SOUTHWEST ZONES WHERE MORNING CONVECTION HELPED TO
LOCALLY STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHED
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA IS ALSO HELPING TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AS WELL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS
UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES. ALOFT...WEAK TROUGHINESS REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FROM UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA...WITH SHORTWAVE STRETCHED DOWN THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS.

SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST AND PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR CONTINUED MAINLY PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM. SOME QUESTION AS TO COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
ON TUESDAY AS SOME HI-RES MODELS SEEM TO WANT TO STABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE DUE TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH
NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HANGING AROUND TONIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW PLUS THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND SURFACE WEAKNESS...FEEL THAT
ERRING ON THE SIDE OF HIGHER POPS IS THE WAY TO GO. HAVE HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY NORTH GEORGIA BOTH DAYS...SLIGHT
CHANCE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WHERE UPPER RIDGE STILL REMAINS IN
PLACE. SURFACE WEAKNESS WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZATION WITH ADDITIONAL
SEVERE STORMS. MAIN THREATS EACH DAY CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...WITH SOME STORMS EXPECTED TO
REACH SEVERE LIMITS. VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN LITTLE
MOVEMENT TO THE STORMS... WITH THIS AND HIGH PW VALUES SOME AREAS
WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAIN WITH POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE AND WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HEAT INDICES FLIRT WITH THE
100 DEGREE MARK ACROSS THE METRO...AND ABOVE 100 DEGREES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA. MET HAS BEEN OUTPERFORMING MAV SO
LEANED TOWARD BIAS-CORRECT MET VALUES FOR SHORT-TERM TEMPS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

WEAK TROUGHINESS ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK...SO THE PATTERN OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE. BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF WANT TO BEGIN DEVELOPING A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THE GFS IS FURTHER WEST THAN
THE ECMWF. STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA SO EXPECT
SUMMERTIME PULSE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE...BUT SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN TEMPS.

TDP

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
MULTICELL CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS METRO AIRPORTS THRU 02Z.
LATEST PUSH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO COLD POOL TO THE
EAST OF ATL. CANNOT RULE OUT GUSTS TO 30KT WITH TSRA PASSAGE.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING WINDS TO SHIFT TO NWLY AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. MAY SEE MORNING HZ/BR AT MOST SITES...WITH MVFR VSBYS AT
MCN/AHN.  NO CIG PROBLEMS OTHER THAN IN TSRA.  REPEAT PERFORMANCE ON
TAP FOR TUESDAY...ALTHO AIRMASS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE WORKED OVER.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON TIMING OF CONVECTION...WINDS...AND VSBYS.
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON CIGS.

27

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  94  70  93 /  40  50  30  50
ATLANTA         73  91  73  92 /  40  50  40  40
BLAIRSVILLE     65  85  66  84 /  40  60  40  50
CARTERSVILLE    70  91  67  93 /  40  60  40  50
COLUMBUS        73  95  72  94 /  30  40  30  30
GAINESVILLE     72  91  72  90 /  40  60  50  50
MACON           72  95  71  95 /  30  40  30  30
ROME            71  92  69  93 /  40  60  40  50
PEACHTREE CITY  70  92  69  92 /  40  50  30  40
VIDALIA         72  95  74  94 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
941 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-051345-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
941 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.SYNOPSIS...
INTERACTIONS BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WILL PROVIDE A PLACE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH. THE BEST PLACE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST CONTINUES
TO PROVIDE AN ACTIVE NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN...WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. A
SURFACE TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CAPE IN THE HAIL
GROWTH ZONE ALLOWS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE PRODUCING QUARTER SIZED OR LARGER HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
751 PM EDT MON JUL 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0524 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MARIETTA                33.95N 84.55W
07/04/2011                   COBB               GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TWO TREES DOWN.

&&

TDP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
757 PM EDT MON JUL 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 NNE WOODSTOCK         34.21N 84.47W
07/04/2011                   CHEROKEE           GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            THREE TREES DOWN AT FIRE STATION 19. TWO FELL ON THE
            STATION...ONE ON A VEHICLE.

&&

TDP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
834 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

GAZ033-043-044-050100-
834 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 35 MPH WINDS
IN DOUGLAS AND FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM EDT...

AT 831 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CHAPEL HILL...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS DOUGLAS
AND FULTON COUNTIES THROUGH 900 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF
THE STORM INCLUDE CHATTAHOOCHEE HILL COUNTRY...BILL ARP...WINSTON...
CHAPEL HILL...CAMPBELLTON...DOUGLASVILLE...SANDTOWN...BOLTON...
BANKHEAD...CASCADE HEIGHTS...WEST END...SWEET AUBURN...ATLANTIC
STATION...LAKEWOOD PARK AND PIEDMONT PARK.

&&

LAT...LON 3381 8466 3380 8463 3375 8457 3383 8445
      3385 8446 3390 8444 3394 8435 3365 8435
      3365 8446 3362 8446 3355 8477 3372 8486
TIME...MOT...LOC 0034Z 234DEG 12KT 3368 8472

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
838 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

GAZ019>021-030>032-041-050130-
838 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS
IN POLK...PAULDING...BARTOW...CHEROKEE...COBB...FLOYD AND HARALSON
COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM EDT...

AT 835 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM SHANNON TO DRAKETOWN...MOVING EAST AT
25 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS POLK...PAULDING...BARTOW...CHEROKEE...COBB...FLOYD AND
HARALSON COUNTIES THROUGH 930 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF
THESE STORMS INCLUDE EUBANK LAKE...SENEY...FISH CREEK...VAN WERT...
ARAGON...DRAKETOWN...ROCKMART...SHANNON...YORKVILLE...TAYLORSVILLE...
UNION...BRASWELL...KINGSTON...NEW GEORGIA AND STILESBORO. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3435 8442 3403 8442 3383 8447 3380 8465
      3380 8472 3379 8473 3377 8483 3377 8489
      3381 8504 3374 8505 3372 8513 3397 8514
      3436 8518
TIME...MOT...LOC 0038Z 240DEG 23KT 3432 8507 3402 8504
          3381 8506

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
900 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

GAZ096-107-050130-
900 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 35 MPH WINDS
IN PULASKI AND BLECKLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM EDT...

AT 856 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER BROWNDALE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH AND PEA SIZED HAIL ARE LIKELY AS THIS STORM
MOVES ACROSS PULASKI AND BLECKLEY COUNTIES THROUGH 930 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE MOCK
SPRINGS...BROWNDALE...WALLACE...PULASKI STATE
PRISON...HARTFORD...HAWKINSVILLE...MOBLEY CROSSING...COCHRAN AND
BAILEYS PARK.

&&

LAT...LON 3230 8361 3237 8355 3241 8323 3234 8330
      3232 8328 3228 8333 3228 8334 3227 8334
      3225 8337 3220 8332 3218 8361
TIME...MOT...LOC 0101Z 264DEG 31KT 3227 8353

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
908 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

GAZ033-043>045-053>055-050145-
908 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 35 MPH WINDS
IN COWETA...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FAYETTE...CLAYTON AND FULTON COUNTIES
UNTIL 945 PM EDT...

AT 906 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM LITHIA SPRINGS TO DUNAWAY GARDENS...MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS COWETA...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FAYETTE...CLAYTON AND FULTON
COUNTIES THROUGH 945 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE
STORMS INCLUDE CHATTAHOOCHEE HILL COUNTRY...ARNCO-SARGENT...MADRAS...
DUNAWAY GARDENS...ROSCOE...NEWNAN...BILL ARP...DOUGLASVILLE...CHAPEL
HILL...THOMAS CROSSROADS...LITHIA SPRINGS...CANNONGATE...
CAMPBELLTON...TYRONE AND PALMETTO. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3351 8485 3352 8482 3355 8483 3357 8481
      3358 8483 3377 8479 3381 8471 3380 8462
      3375 8457 3383 8445 3392 8444 3398 8438
      3395 8427 3348 8431 3334 8490
TIME...MOT...LOC 0107Z 227DEG 22KT 3380 8466 3368 8471
          3347 8478